Lebanon, Iran’s sensitive diplomacy amid calls to disarm Hezbollah Hezbollah news

A visit to this week to Lebanon is seen from senior Iranian politicians, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, as an attempt to soften any feathers of his sin from Tehran about the disarmament of Hezbollah.

In early August, the Lebanese government, Under pressure from the United StatesIt announced that it would seek to disarm Hezbollah, which has long been considered a major ally in Tehran, by the end of the year.

Group It was angrily angry to call for disarmament With the Secretary -General, Naymis Qassem, who condemns the idea on Friday and the Lebanese government said, “It has no right to question the legitimacy of the resistance.”

“We support any decision made by the group, but we do not interfere,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said in an interview with him last week.

“This is not the first time that they have been trying to strip Hezbollah from its weapons,” he said. “The reason is clear: the power of the resistance has proven itself in this field.”

His comments were angrily received in Beirut. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji, who is from the right-wing Lebanese Forces Party, said that the Aragchchi statement was “firmly and condemned.”

Rajji said: “Such data undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, unity and stability, and constitute an unacceptable intervention in its internal matters and sovereign decisions.”

Hezbollah and Iran appeared bruises from separate conflicts with Israel in November and June, respectively. Now, Beirut Hezbollah instructions to disarm it Analysts said the risks undermined the importance of the group at a critical time.

Who decides?

Many analysts believe that the decision if its arms will be kept or abandoned, may not be Hezbollah alone.

“Hezbollah does not enjoy the full work of work in this regard,” said Ha Hiller of the Royal United Institute of Services on the island.

He said about regional turmoil since Israel began its war on Gaza in October 2023 and launched subsequent attacks on Pharran and Celebrities: “But this does not act simply as a substitute for Tehran, which is in the midst of a somewhat difficult period of its existence, especially given the political geography surrounding the region.”

These attacks caused severe damage to Lebanon, especially on the outskirts of the southern Beirut and southern Lebanon, where there is a rule of support for Hezbollah.

Lebanon was already detained in an economic crisis before the Israel war, and the World Bank in May estimated that it would now happen He needs 11 billion dollars To rebuild. The central government will be responsible for distributing these funds, which gives it some influence on Hezbollah.

“Tehran will oppose the disarmament of Hezbollah,” said Hillier. “But if Hezbollah decides to need to maintain its political position, Tehran cannot veto.”

He also suggested that Tehran see some of its allied groups in Iraq, which Larijani visited before Beirut, more positive now, especially since the fall of Syria, Bashar al -Assad in December, has cut off land roads to Lebanon.

“Hezbollah, of course, is very important for Iran, but I believe that Iraqi militia groups have become more than that, especially after the lion of Assad,” he said.

Threat and provocation

Hezbollah has long considered Hezbollah the strongest non -governmental armed actor in the Middle East, a valuable ally of Iran and an enemy of Israel.

“Hezbollah has always been a threat and provocation, depending on the place where it was standing,” said Nicholas Blancord, a colleague who is older than the Atlantic Council and a authority in Hezbollah.

He added: “It is still both, despite a much less degree,” noting the damage caused by the group of Israeli attacks and the assassinations of its leadership in accumulation and during the Israeli war on Lebanon in October and November.

“It is clear that Iran wants Hezbollah to remain the same, and to the extent that we can say, it helps it to reorganize its ranks.

“It is also clear from their statements that Hezbollah has no intention to give up its arms. Even relatively moderate numbers within the group are compared to suicide.”

In his speech on Friday, Qassem’s rejection was unambiguous: “The resistance will not take away as long as the aggression continues and the occupation continues.

“If it is necessary, we will go into the battle of Karbala’i to confront this Israeli -American project, regardless of the costs, and we are sure that we will win,” he said, referring to the Battle of Krala, which Shiite Muslims wear as a founding battle against tyranny and repression.

Qasim seemed to exclude the Lebanese army from his anger, warning to the government: “Do not destroy the national army in this conflict … It has a clean record and does not want (this).”

Inside the tent

Larijani’s visit on Wednesday considered a possible opportunity for Beirut to open new lines of communication with one of the most important actors in the region, Tehran, and may determine what Iran may be ready to consider in exchange for the disarmament of Hezbollah in the future.

“It is not possible for Lebanon to break the relations between the Shiite society and Iran, that is, more than the Sunni society and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia can be,” said Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

“Iran is a major regional representative. It has a strong relationship with one of the largest societies (Monday) in the country.”

“You cannot cut ties. This is meaningless. You want the Iranians inside the tent, not outside.”

Given the accuracy of Lebanon’s position, the balanced between the United States supports it depends on it and the regional alliances it needs, Young suggested that Lebanese legislators seek to obtain an opportunity to secure a type of middle land while some people accept in Beirut who may not be ready to celebrate any negotiations with Iran.

“It is important for the Lebanese to see whether there are holes in the Iranian position,” Young continued, as he visited Larijani as a possible opportunity for the Lebanese government to influence Iran’s position in the future of Hezbollah.

He said: “This is something that Larijani’s visit can provide, if he exploits it well,” It is important for the Lebanese to see whether the Iranians are proposing anything in the future or whether they are appearing in preparation for the settlement on behalf of Hezbollah. “