China’s growth in July stumbles with retail sales, Miss industrial production expectations

The Chinese economy has lost momentum in July, with growth in all fields, with the continued weak demand for mortar and Beijing intensified efforts to reduce excessive ability.

Retail sales last month 3.7 % rose from the previous yearData from the National Statistics Office on Friday showed that the estimates of the analysts were sharply lost by 4.6 % growth in a Reuters poll and slowed down 4.8 % growth in June.

Industrial product 5.7 % rose from last year In July, its weakest levels since November last year, according to LSEG data, and the weakest analysts’ expectations for a 5.9 % increase.

Investing fixed assets 1.6 % expanded from January to JulyExpecting economists’ expectations without growth by 2.7 % and slowing from 2.8 % in the first six months. Within this part, contraction in Real estate investment Government data showed that its exacerbation, which fell 12 % in the first seven months.

the The Statistics Office is attributed The disappointing economic performance to “the ongoing challenges of the complex and unexpected external environment” and the harsh weather. High temperatures, heavy rains and floods struck several areas throughout the country last month, forcing factories and construction sites to suspend operations.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, in July alone, investments in fixed assets decreased by 5.2 % on an annual basis, a sharp decrease since March 2020 when the country wrestled with the outbreak of the epidemic.

Lescheng Wang said that the government seems “less pressure to intensify spending” given the strong growth in the first half of the year. Chinese economist in Goldman. “The contraction effect” of the continuous revolution policies, “Wang added, referring to the last Beijing batch to curb excessive and and unusual price wars between companies.

This year, the Chinese authorities have increased scrutiny over excessive production in sectors such as steel and coal in an attempt to reduce the Cutthroat competition that weighs the profitability of companies and the exacerbation of contraction.

Separately, the survey -based urban unemployment rate in July reached 5.2 %, increasing to 5 % in May and June. However, the unemployment rate for those between the ages of 16 and 24, with the exception of university students remained above 14 % for a year.

Tianges Show, senior economists in the Economic Intelligence Unit, said he was expected to slow down, because the main contributors to the superior performance in the first half of the year, such as government motivation and pre -emptive trade, fades.

Chinese economy 5.3 % expansion in the first Half a year, on the right track to face the 5 % Beijing goal. However, economists have warned that the risks of the entire general growth remain their goal, and called for supporting a new policy in the second half of the year.

Beijing and Washington announced on Monday that they would extend the customs tariff for 90 days until mid -November, to avoid sharp tariffs and allow more time for both sides to negotiate a solid deal.

Despite the temporary truce, “basic conflicts-from reaching critical technology and minerals to industrial policy and geopolitical alignment-remain,” Jing Cheyan, co-founder and administrative director of the China Analysis Center at the Asian Association Politics Institute.

Cheyan, who advised the two governments during the ongoing negotiations, said that “great political comparison” is preserved for a possible summit between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the coming months.