Hurricane swarms are something that we should be concerned about now

In early October 2024, Milton, Kirk and Lezli hurricanes confused In the Atlantic Ocean basin – the first time that three hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean were active at the same time after September Noa. New research warns that the tropical hurricane “groups” have become more common in this part of the world, which increases the dangers of the hurricane season.

Tropical hurricane groups occur when two or more hurricanes are active inside the same sink at the same time. The western northern Pacific has historically produced most of the groups, but it seems that climate change has moved this hot point to the North Atlantic Ocean. The study, published on July 31 in the magazine Nature climate changeTen times an increase in the possibility of forming the tropical hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean, from about 1.4 % to 14.3 % over the past 46 years. This rate is now outperforming the average west of the North Pacific, and the researchers.

“We tried to develop a possibility to understand this trend,” said Dazi Al -Elebah, Hong Kong University Climate doctor who participated in the leadership of the study and developed the methodology at the University of Foudan. Release. “If the tropical hurricane groups are formed by chance, only the storm is frequent, the duration of the storm, and the storm season can affect the opportunity.”

To exclude this, Xi and his colleagues simulated the formation of the tropical hurricane groups through probability modeling, taking into account only those three mechanisms. This model was only partially successful – he greatly reduced the chance of tropical hurricane groups for several years. The researchers found that during those years, the cinochinical-mobility waves, which are moving to disorders in the atmosphere that can create favorable conditions for the formation of the storm-increase the possibilities of tropical cyclones.

More analysis revealed that the noticeable changes in the intensity of the cinochic wave are responses to the global warming pattern “La Niña”, according to the study. This trend is characterized by the slowest warming in the East Pacific compared to the West Pacific.

“The warming pattern not only adjusts the frequency of tropical hurricanes in the northern ponds of the Atlantic Ocean and the northern western basins of the Pacific, but it also affects the strength of cinematic waves on a large scale, causing the shift in the hot point in the field of hurricane in the northwest of Pacific to the northern pelvis.”

It is not clear whether this warming pattern is the result of natural differences within the climate system or external pressure, such as greenhouse gas emissions, according to the study. Previous search by eleventh Find The future possibility of multiple hurricanes that affect the same region during a short period of time increased in all of the scenarios of moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions, indicating that the global warming that a person moves affects the formation of the storm simultaneously.

Although this new study did not look specifically to the human warming, it indicates that the dramatic transformation of warming patterns over the past half century has turned the North Atlantic to the emerging hot point for tropical cyclone groups. This risk may double the Atlantic countries during the hurricane season, including the United States

When multiple hurricanes reach a short period of time, this greatly reduces the time of recovery between storms, overwhelming emergency response systems and further infrastructure. The researchers hope that the results of the Atlantic coastal societies will urge the development of pre -emptive strategies to deal with the risk of increasing the rapid star hurricanes.