50 BPS gross domestic product beating? Previous RBI Guv warning from Trump’s tariff and China that receives a double blow

Former RBI ruler Duvuri Subbarao warned in an interview with Indian Express. He also warned that revenge trade movements by China could pressure the manufacturing sector in India.

Subaru said that the threat of customs tariffs from the United States-especially targeting the intensive sectors of workers such as textiles, shoes and gemstones-directly export exports is approximately 2 % of GDP in India. He said: “Margins will be eroded, requests, loss of jobs, and planting plants,” expecting a possible shock from 20 to 50 basis points, depending on the extent of the absorption or conversion of India.

He added that the distribution effect will be a decline, which increases income equality and puts additional pressure on the fragile official functional scene in India.

Besides the United States, the second Subaru put a growing risk: the industrial extra capacity in China. With Beijing’s identification pressure from Washington, Chinese exporters may dump markets like India with cheap commodities to drop the excess stock. He warned that “we must also calculate the possibility of dumping in China in our markets to compensate for its own loss in its share in the American market.”

This twin pressure – from both the American tariffs and Chinese dumping – can stop the competitiveness of India manufacturing just as it tries to storm global value chains under China +1 strategy.

Subaru also issued a flagrant warning about reputation damage after Donald Trump referred to India as “dead like Russia.” “Despite this, for India, his description” is dead “by an American president bearing the costs of reputation,” he said. “These comments can raise the risk premium in India, the feeling of a dent investor, and the re -customization of the fast portfolio even without direct policy procedures.”

He stressed that with the high global liquidity and the high costs of borrowing, India must protect the weak sectors and accelerate structural reforms to maintain the investor’s confidence and the stability of the macroeconomic.