When the next recession strikes, any of the president will face extensive pressure to reduce the definitions, so do not rely on them for revenue, says senior economists.

The average effective tariff rate is now 20.2 %, which is the highest since 1911 Yale Budget Laboratory. Based on the tariff for the revenues it generates so far, it should bring about 300 billion dollars annually.

Although this is not enough to eliminate the federal budget deficit, which is expected to accommodate approximately $ 2 trillion this year, it is still a meaningful amount. So why don’t you rely on them as a long -term revenue source?

In the last Wednesday episode of Confronting the future Podcast From the Concorde Alliance, a non -partisan group focused on reducing national debt, and the chief economist in Moody Mark Zandy indicated that the customs tariff was imposed through the executive order and could be changed in a moment.

In addition, the so -called mutual definitions face the court’s challenges on the argument that has not been covered under the Economic Forces Law on International Emergency.

As a result, Zandy warned against making other tax decisions and spending based on the assumption that these definitions will remain valid. If the economy goes south, all bets are suspended.

He added: “I think that the next time the economy enters the recession – this will not wander, but at some point he will do so – any of its boss will be subjected to great pressure to reduce this customs tariff because they can do this under an executive order. They do not need to go to Congress to obtain legislation.”

The contraction may come sooner, not later. Earlier this month, Zandy warned Economy on the brink of stagnation.

On Sunday, he continued, saying that the United States is not in a recession now, more than half of the 400 industries that have been tracked in government data Do workers already climb?A phenomenon accompanied by the previous shrinkage.

At the same time, most of the costs of definitions are transferred to consumers, which means that these import taxes are effective sales taxes. Goldman Sachs calculated this around him 67 % of the tariff costs are passed For consumers.

“There will be a strong incentive on the part of that president to say,” Well, I will reduce taxes, “Zandy told the Caroline Bordeaux alliance and Robert Pixby.

While Trump has put forward the idea of using customs tariff revenues to provide a kind of profit or discount for Americans, the White House insists that consumers do not have the costs of customs tariffs and that foreign exporters.

In both cases, Zandy said he believed that it is unlikely to generate $ 300 billion annually over the next decade and warned against relying on and plots like this.

He added: “In fact, if I do that, we put ourselves in a more clear and darker financial position on the road, because I do not think that these definitions will take about 10 years from now.”

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