Senior economists say more than half of the industries are already falling on workers, a sign. “

in A series of posts x on SundayFollow his warning from the end of last week that Economy on the brink of stagnation.

This time, Zandy pointed out that the beginning of the recession is often unclear even after the truth, noting that the National Office for Economic Research is the official rule when one begins and ends.

According to NberThe recession includes “a significant decrease in economic activity that spreads throughout the economy and lasts more than a few months.” It also examines a set of indicators, including personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales, and industrial production.

Zandy said that the recruitment data data is largely the most important data point, and it decreases for more than a month in a row that would indicate a decrease. He added that although the work has not started to fall yet, it has almost grown since May.

The salaries were expanded only by 73,000 last monthMuch less than expectations for about 100,000. At the same time, the May balance has been revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the June total of 147,000 to 14,000 has been reduced, which means that the average profit during the past three months is now only 35,000.

Since the recent reviews were constantly less, Zandy said he would not be surprised if subsequent reviews showed that employment has already decreased.

He added: “He also says that employment decreases in many industries. In the past, if more than half of the 400 -year -old industries are to scan salary statements get rid of jobs, we were in a stagnation.” “In July, more than 53 % of the industries were cutting their functions, and health care was only the one that adds useful to salary statements.”

Last week, Zandy said the data often sees great reviews when the economy is at a turning point, such as stagnation. On Wednesday, the governor of the Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook, noted that the large reviews are “typical of the transformation points” in the economy.

Now, and Tracking GDP in Atlanta Fair It indicates continued growth, and the third quarter expectations decreased to 2.5 % from 2.1 % last week, although this is still slowing from 3 % in the second quarter.

There are also no signs of collective workers because the weekly fair claims did not slip, and the unemployment rate has almost changed, as it increased in a narrow range ranging between 4 % and 4.2 % for more than a year.

But Zandy said that the unemployment rate would be a “particularly bad scale for stagnation” as the recent decline in the number of workers born abroad kept the workforce.

“Also note that the recession is defined by a continuous decrease in jobs – the decrease continues for at least a few months. We are not there yet, and therefore we are not in the recession,” I explained. “It is still possible that things will be transformed if the economic policies that weigh the economy soon. But this seems increasingly unlikely.”

Wall Street is divided On what job data says, some analysts attribute to the slowdown in the weak demand for employment, while others blame the blaming of the weak offer in employment amid the campaign of President Donald Trump’s migration.

Bank of America Fall into Display “The markets confuse the recession,” she said. But UBS warned of poor demand, noting that the average work week is less than 2019 levels, and she said that the labor market shows signs of “” “Stroke speed”

Last week, Economists in JPMorgan also looked alarm A possible contraction. They pointed out that job data show that employment in the private sector may cool with an average of 52,000 in the past three months, with sectors stopping outside health and education.

Besides the absence of any signs that unwanted separation is increasing due to the immigration policy, this is a strong indication that the commercial demand for employment may cool.

Jpmorgan added: “We have constantly emphasized that the slide in the demand for employment of this size is a warning signal.” “Companies usually maintain employment gains through the growth processes that they consider transient. In the episodes where the demand for employment is sliding with low growth, it is often like a provision for a reduction.”

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