How hybrid tactics target NATO allies in 2024: Drones, explosive packages, and sabotage

When mysterious drones began appearing over oil rigs and wind farms off the coast of Norway about three years ago, officials weren’t sure where they were coming from.

“But we knew what they were doing,” Stal Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, said in a recent interview. “Some of it was espionage, where they were plotting a lot of things. I think some of it was positioning in case of war or a deep crisis.

Mr. Ulrichsen said he suspected the drones were launched from Russian-controlled ships in the North Sea, including some that were near underwater energy pipelines. He added that Norway could not do much to prevent them, given that they were flying over international waters.

In recent weeks, reports of swarms of drones over the US East Coast have raised fears of widespread hybrid warfare. only 100 out of 5,000 drone sightings there require further examinationNone of them are yet believed to be foreign reconnaissance drones, US officials said. But it’s a different story for Drones They were spotted in late November and early December over military bases in the country England And Germany, where American forces are stationed.

Military analysts concluded that those planes were probably on a state-sponsored surveillance mission, according to a US official familiar with the events, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an open investigation. British and German defense officials declined to discuss details of the sightings.

Experts said the presence of the drones is indicative of a so-called hybrid or “gray zone” attack against the West, where a range of tactics – military, cyber, economic and even psychological – are used to covertly attack or destabilize the enemy.

As Russia, Iran and other hostile nations grow more emboldened in their hybrid attacks on Western nations — such as hacking sensitive computer systems and alleged assassination plots — defense officials face a thorny challenge. How can such actions be deterred without provoking a broader and potentially deadly conflict? How can the attacker be blamed when the strikes are designed to evade responsibility?

‘It’s not random. It is part of military operations.

Hybrid attacks are not new, but they have been on the rise in recent years.

One of the most high-profile and potentially fatal incidents occurred in July, when a series of accidents occurred The beams exploded In Europe. postmarked from Lithuania, The parcels contained electric massage machines containing a highly flammable substance containing magnesium. Two exploded at DHL shipping facilities in Britain and Germany, and the third at a Polish courier company.

Western officials and Polish investigators They said they believed the packages were a test by Russia’s military intelligence agency to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the United States and Canada.

He added: “We tell our allies that this is not random; “It is part of military operations,” Kestutis Podris, Lithuanian Foreign Minister, He said From explosions. He added: “We must neutralize him and stop him at the source, and the source is Russian military intelligence.” Russia denies being behind the sabotage.

Other examples of hybrid tactics include cyberattacks It is Albania In the past few years, which a Microsoft investigation concluded was sponsored by Iran, and Russia’s failed attempt to do so Presidential influence Elections using misinformation In Moldova In October and November, according to Moldovan and European officials. European countries are also investigating whether a number of ships did this intentionally He cuts Underwater Cables In recent months in an attempted attack.

While China, Iran and North Korea have shown a growing appetite for hybrid attacks, officials said Russia in particular has deployed them. Secret sabotage against NATO allies since the Kremlin’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“Russia has intensified its efforts across the board and, as a result, has reached increasingly alarming levels,” James Appathurai, NATO deputy assistant secretary general who oversees hybrid warfare strategy, said in an interview. “They are willing to accept more risks for us, for the safety of the lives of our citizens.”

Britain, Germany, the United States, the Baltic states and the Nordic countries near the Russian border are among the Western countries most targeted by hybrid threats, partly because of their prominent support for Ukraine, officials said. Last year, according to Western officials, US and NATO intelligence agencies uncovered a Russian plot to launch attacks Kill the CEO German arms giant Rheinmetall, which manufactured millions of dollars’ worth of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine.

The drones spotted in Britain in November — three days after President Biden announced that Ukraine could fire US-made deep-sea missiles at Russia — were larger and more capable of withstanding rough weather than a hobbyist would be expected to have, and were mostly spotted after… Nightfall. This is partly why military analysts conclude that a hostile nation is responsible, the US official said.

Then, in early December, just as drone sightings in Britain were beginning to decline, drones appeared over Ramstein Air Base in Germany, one of the largest US military sites in Europe. Some have also reportedly been spotted near facilities owned by Rheinmetall.

The US official said that investigators were studying whether the flights in both countries were “outside the Kremlin’s rules of the game.”

Russia has repeatedly denied launching hybrid attacks against NATO, and in many cases has scoffed at such accusations, although NATO officials say Moscow has created a special directorate focused on implementing them.

Russian officials also say they are the targets. “What is happening in Ukraine is that some people call it a hybrid war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. He said in an interview with Tucker Carlson in early December. “I would call it a hybrid war, too.”

How to fight a shadow war.

NATO has begun developing a new strategy to counter hybrid attacks to replace a 2015 policy that it says is now outdated. Mr. Appathurai said the new approach will provide a baseline picture of recent hybrid attacks to help the coalition gauge whether risk levels are escalating.

“This will be important for the allies to determine how serious the incident is and what their response to it might be,” he added.

The European Union is also intensifying its efforts, imposing sanctions in mid-December For the first time Specifically against people accused of engaging in pro-Russian hybrid threats. It also recently assigned four senior commissioners to combat hybrid threats.

Officials and experts agree that a wide range of measures are needed to deter and protect against hybrid attacks, including more “naming and shaming” of adversaries and imposing legal sanctions; improving intelligence and technical systems for detecting threats; and military exercises and other displays of force to demonstrate that even covert assaults will not go unpunished.

But this will require unity among NATO members, especially when attacks cross international borders. Because hybrid warfare is inherently designed to evade clear attribution of responsibility, officials have been reluctant to launch strong responses without indisputable evidence about the identity of the adversary.

This has encouraged Russia and China to cross the border, according to officials, diplomats and experts.

“As long as NATO and EU member states disagree on how to respond more decisively to the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare, Europe will remain vulnerable,” says Charlie Edwards, a former British intelligence and security strategist. Written in November. He added: “Failure to act will mean the Kremlin retains the strategic advantage.”