Why is it unlikely that Trump Putin has a quick end to the Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine, which was ignited by the full invasion of Russia in February 2022, does not show any sign of abandonment.

In eastern Ukraine, Russia presses the progress of grinding and bloody. The deadly air strikes are a night event throughout the country, while the refineries and energy refineries in Russia are undergoing a regular attack by Koyv.

Under this background, the Kremlin confirmed a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin that was planned and is scheduled to happen soon. “I am here to get (the war),” said the leader of the United States on Wednesday.

Three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, which were detained at his request between May and July, failed to approach the two sides, and Trump may hope to take the situation to his hands finally to the ceasefire.

But the fatwa between Kyiv and Moscow is so great that the conversations that take place by Trump may make it difficult to fill it.

In a memorandum submitted by the Ukrainian Russia in June, Moscow clarified its extreme demands for a “final settlement” of the conflict. It includes recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian regions of the Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporesvia and Khairsson, as well as Ukraine agrees to remove arms, neutrality, non -foreign military participation and new elections.

“The Russian side can frame this with different tens, which creates the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and serious negotiation,” said Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. “But the primary position is still unchanged: Russia wants to surrender Kyiv.”

After a meeting between Putin and the United States Envoy Steve Whitchov, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Washington had a better understanding of the conditions in which Russia would be ready to end the war.

We do not know if these conditions have changed. However, Putin said last week – probably indicating the memo – that Russia had clarified its goals in June, and that those goals remained the same.

Therefore, although the Kremlin agreed to the Trump Putin meeting, there is no reason to believe that Moscow is ready to budge its difficult conditions.

Why does Putin agree to talks at this stage?

One of the possibilities is that he hopes to engage in dialogue to fade Secondary penalties that Trump threatened to impose on Moscow trade partners Once on Friday. The Kremlin may also feel that Trump can persuade the advantages of his circumstances to end the war.

At the beginning of his second term in his post, Trump seemed to be more compatible with Russia than Ukraine, as Zelinski described it as a “dictator”, indicating that he was responsible for the war with Russia.

Although he has since indicated his patience with Putin’s exaltation with Putin – “he only inhales me, Trump also refused to say whether he felt that the Russian leader was lying to him because of his willingness to move towards the ceasefire.

Whether due to personal rapprochement or the perception of the alignment world, Trump was completely condemning Putin’s condemnation of his actions.

When the two met in Helsinki in 2018 – during the first period of Trump as president – he was many It is surprising to see the Trump team with the Kremlin on accusations of Russian intervention in the 2016 US elections And holds responsibility for relations between the United States to Russia.

It may be partially to defend Trump’s possibility of Putin that Kiev wants to participate in any ceasefire talks.

Through his envoy Steve Witkeov, Trump also suggested a triple contract with Putin and Zellinski. But the Russian president has fought these proposals, saying that the conditions of the meeting are still far away.

Now some in Ukraine are concerned that Trump Putin’s meeting may lead to the US president’s surrender to Putin’s demands.

Ukrainian MP Irina Herschenko said it has become clear that the demands of regional concessions by Ukraine will be presented and added to be absent from the negotiating table “very dangerous” for Kev.

“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zellinski said on Thursday.

But the gap between Russia and Ukraine is still.

And if the Kremlin eventually agreed to a triple meeting, Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire have proven that it is unclear what Zelinski and Putin have achieved face to face.