The threat of Trump’s penalty places India in a link on Russian oil

India is moving in a difficult budget law after US President Donald Trump threatened “a punishment” for its ongoing imports of Russian oil – a trade that seems to be New Delhi at the end any time soon.

Although Trump told reporters on Friday that he had “heard” India will stop purchases, New Delhi officials remained obligatory. Foreign Ministry spokesman Randir Jaiswal said that the country decides energy import sources “based on the price that is available in the international market and depends on the global situation at that time.”

“The Consulting Company Rabidan Energ said,” Consulting Company Rapidan Energ said, “

McKinale said: “Now we fluctuate and say:” What do you do with all this Russian oil? “

In March 2022-a month after Russia launched its full invasion of Ukraine-Dalib Singh, a former US national security deputy for the international economy in the Biden Administration, According to what he said, he said “Friends do not put red lines” and “there is no ban at the present time on energy imports from Russia.”

“What we do not want to see is a quick acceleration of India’s imports from Russia in that it is related to energy or any other exports that it currently prohibits or through other aspects of the international sanctions system,” Singh said.

On July 30, Trump announced that India will face a 25 % tariff starting from August 1, along with unlimited “penalty” for the purchase of Russian oil and military equipment.

But analysts suggest that India, the third largest energy consumer in the world, is not flashing at the present time. Reuters reported that there are no immediately planned changes for India’s long -term decades with Russian suppliers, citing unknown Indian government exporters who do not want to identify them due to the sensitivity of the issue.

It has become Russia The pioneering oil resource of India Since the war began in Ukraine, it has increased from less than 100,000 barrels per day before the invasion, or 2.5 % stake in total imports, to more than 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, or 39 %. According to the International Energy Agency, 70 % of Russian crude It was exported to India in 2024.

India Energy Minister Hardip Seng Buri defended New Delhi’s actions in an interview with him on July 10 with CNBC, saying that she helped stabilize global prices and even encourage it by the United States

“If people or countries stop buying at that point, the price of oil would have reached $ 130 a barrel. This was a situation in which we advised, including our friends in the United States, please buy Russian oil, but within the maximum prices.”

Russian oil exports It was covered at $ 60 a barrel In December 2022 by a group of seven countries, it represents the best economies in the world, while the European Union has reduced the maximum price to a little top $ 47 a barrel In July.

However, the pressure is escalating. Fishno Varathon, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, said that the American threats are a “clear and present danger” of India. He said that New Delhi is likely to remain not binding in the purchases of oil because it establishes the “Russia’s option” barties as a bargaining chip.

Varathhan, who is also the head of the Elementary Research of Asia, added that India will need to search for the global market in favor of similar oil deals with Russian oil.

Varathon said that New Delhi can explore alternatives, including Iran – if it is possible to negotiate an exemption from the United States – as well as a few other producers “either inside or outside OPEC+ who have been pressured by the United States.”

Opec+ Bloc was On Sunday, it was agreed to raise production By 547,000 barrels per day in September, concerns about potential display disorders are escalating in Russia.

McNali Rabidan said India would face a difficult choice.

“Trump is serious. It is disappointed by Putin … India will have a difficult choice, but it is difficult to see them continuing to import that a million and a half barrels (from) Russian crude if Donald Trump decides to put the entire relationship on the line.”