The Wall Street view was just destroy

This was evident in the sale of the stock market on Friday as a report of accurate jobs Delit shock reviews To the previous months Raise the recession fears.

But not everyone was surprised, as some in Wall Street had previously seemed to warn of excessive design and many red flags associated with decline.

On Tuesday note, James Saint -Obin, director of information at Ocean Park Assets, warned that investors were severely inclined to narrate economic flexibility.

He added that the idea of “Kevlar Economy” has been satisfied with the evaluation in the extended assessments, the spread of narrow credit, and the establishment of risks, in reference to the artificial fibers used in bulletproofing jackets.

Saint Obin said that one of the risks is the political pressure that infiltrates decisions in the federal reserve. Months ago, Trump and other White House officials demanded discounts in the Federal Reserve rate, even indicating that the cost excesses in the main headquarters renewal project are reasons for the overthrow of the Chairman of the Board Jerome Powell.

Another danger is that the stock market investors view the definitions as a temporary speed that can be compensated by tax cuts and the boasting of capital spending in the technology sector on artificial intelligence. But St. Obin indicated that the customs tariff struck companies unevenly, with each other more exhibited than others.

“If you believe in flexibility too much, you are not completely compensated for the risks you take,” he added. “There is always a mistake in the end – whether it is a risk risk in sight or something you cannot see coming.”

Consumer spending on services

Certainly, the American economy has previously shown sudden durability. In 2022, after the Federal Reserve launched its most aggressive campaign that has been going on in prices for more than 40 years, Wall Street has widely assumed that the recession would follow it. But he never came, and cooling inflation sharply.

Earlier this year, economists were afraid that Trump’s tariff would nourish a significant increase in inflation. However, while some areas sensitive to import witnessed an increase in the rate, the total rate was more complete, so far.

However, deeper diving in some title numbers revealed annoying signs. Last month, economists in Wales Vargo He pointed out that although the estimated spending on the goods has stood up, Service spending It decreased by 0.3 % to May on an annual basis.

They wrote in a note: “It is Muslim that this is a modest decline, but what makes it frightening is that within 60 years, this procedure only decreased during the recession or immediately after that.”

Spending on food services and recreational services, which include things like gym and broadcasting subscriptions, was barely higher.

Meanwhile, transport spending decreased by 1.1 %, led by declines in car maintenance, taxis, passenger exchange, and air travel, which was a sharp decrease of 4.7 %.

“The fact that families postpone cars, not to seize Uber, reduce air travel points, or eliminate the budgets of the extended families,” said Wales Vargo.

Housing market

In May, Citi Research recalled that the late Ed Ed Limmer published a paper in 2007 Residential investment is the best pioneering indicator of the upcoming recession.

“We will be wise to look at his warning,” City said.

In fact, residential fixed investment reduced 4.6 % in the second quarter, according to the data issued on Wednesday, after contracting by 1.3 % in the first quarter.

The construction spending in general continued to decrease in June, leading a sharp decline in new family houses. This is with the continued high mortgage rates, which represents a major obstacle to the ability to bear costs, while home prices are still high.

“The constant housing investment is the most interest rate sector in the economy and now indicates that the mortgage rates are about 7 % very high so that the expansion cannot be maintained,” City said in May.

laboratory

Economists in Citi have always been among the slightest upwards in Wall Street, and before amazing salaries on Friday, they have already inhaled the signs of weakness.

In particular, they reported a decline in the workforce sharing rate, which suppressed the unemployment rate because this means that less people were looking for work.

City reduced the idea that the Trump immigration campaign was primarily responsible for the decrease in the participation rate. Instead, economists have pointed out that employment has decreased as evidence of the weakest demand for workers.

On Friday, City witnessed that her previous warnings play and expected that Wall Street will start circumventing.

The bank said: “The softness that was clear in the details of the job report is now clear in the address numbers.” “Markets and federal reserve officials must now reflect more closely.