“The Big Short”: While Trump is escalating on a new tariff, the economy suffers from a “recession period”

Danny Moussa, founder of Musa Fitshers, who is famous for the book, turned into a transformation movie The Great Short, He warned that despite some strong economic indicators in the face of induction uncertainty, the signs of recession are already on us.

“There are so much moving parts to the point where it is really difficult to decipher the place you will determine,” Moussa said. luck. “Anyone can find a data point that says it is guaranteed, and someone can find a data point that it is not. So it is very difficult. But the bottom line … is (the economy) going through a stagnation period? It seems to me.”

President Donald Trump announced on Friday a A new round of comprehensive definitionsIncluding a 39 % tax on Swiss exports and 35 % tax on some Canadian exports to the United States, the administration extends the deadline for trade to other countries including Mexico, and the largest commercial partner in America, which gets an additional 90 days. The logic behind the customs tariff is slightly different from the previous round trade deficit. The United States, for example, has a trade surplus with Brazil for a decade. Instead, Trump imposed a sharp tariff on Brazil Political reasonsLike the trial of the ally and former Brazilian President Gear Bolsonaro, who was accused of planning a coup after losing the presidential elections.

Markets Cloudy After the announcement – as well as a The more than expected jobs reportAfter gathering for a week of strong profits and fading fears of the trade war. But Moussa said that the last round of definitions again sparked anxiety about the future of the economy, which made investors “a little more anxious about the inability to predict what will happen.”

Moussa said: “No one knows how this will penetrate this, because this type of unprecedented tariff is not like.”

Where is the extension?

Fears of stagnation, or stagnation of economic growth that correspond to inflation, DilutedEspecially after GDP data on Wednesday appears a A recovery in economic growth in the United States In the second quarter of the year. This follows a Estimation This was largely the result of the timing of commercial chaos that force companies to store goods before pricing among consumers who buy this stock. Ultimately, the growth in the second quarter cancel the shrinking of the first quarter, despite the slowdown in economic growth in the first half of the year.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said luck In a statement that the recovery of growth and “cooling enlargement … indicates that the recession is simply the latest word for soluble tonn (Such(Madness of greatness).

Moussa said that the economy has not yet seen the complete impact of definitions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Fixed interest rates retain This week, he said more information is needed to provide price reduction.

“The high definitions began to appear more clearly at the prices of some commodities, but its total effects on economic activity and inflation still should be seen,” Powell told reporters in the wake of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. “There is a reasonable essential condition that the effects of inflation can be short-term-reflect on a single-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects are more stable, and this represents the risk of its evaluation and management.”

The inflation will not only increase as it was already I started doingAnd if Moses, although companies will continue to face the impact of definitions. apple The latest giant was burning from the definitions, and he reported strong profits on Friday, however He hit $ 1.1 billion From the fees. With companies continuing to calculate the impact of definitions, they are likely to choose both margins and settle growth, in addition to raising prices on goods, according to Moussa, as the recession was the most likely result.

“Choose fish,” said Moses. “Either you reach corporate margins, the profits will decrease, which means that the market is expensive, or will be transferred to consumers and be inflated. I think it will be a mixture of both.”