The seasonal force meets the conflicting COT report – are you?

The bulls in the gold market were riding an intense wave since its lowest levels in 2022, when the prices began to go about 2000 dollars an ounce and finally erupted, and the momentum did not surrender. By July 2025, Gold had the highest level ever at $ 3,509.9, based on the closest futures for futures contract. It traded 117 % of $ 1,618 in October 2022. The money managed to buy strongly during its lowest levels in October 2022 and lasted until September 2024, when gold was trading near $ 2,730. Later, I will evaluate the current report of the merchant report (COT).

Heidegs also benefited, such as mining companies and central banks. Minms (NEM) (NEM) achieved revenues in the second quarter of 2025 amounted to 5.01 billion dollars, which represents an increase of 24.5 % from $ 4.023 billion that were reported in the first quarter of 2024. Gold prices on an annual basis led to this increase. In 2024, central banks accumulated large gold as part of the strategy of diversifying reserves amid global economic uncertainty and currency fluctuations. The amount of gold stored was close to 1045 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council. This represents the third year in a row in which the purchases of gold in the central bank exceeded 1000 tons, and it is a trend according to Ainvest driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation risk, and a strategic decline from the US dollar. This gathering has won all those who chase fast profits and those who protect against economic uncertainty.

Two events indicate high gold prices. First, the central bank purchases are scheduled to continue, with the Chinese People’s Bank continued in 2024. The reporting of the gold that was purchased by PBOC is a challenge of distress due to the lack of reporting of the purchases of Chinese gold, which makes it difficult to confirm the fine quantity permanently. Second, reports may lead at the end of the week that the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may resign may lead to low interest rates in the short term if President Trump gets his desire to replace the Federal Reserve Speaker. This would lead to a decrease in US dollar prices and interest rates, which is up to gold prices.

However, one of the events can be disappointed with gold: if Powell resigns, and the new president dramatically reduces interest rates in the short term, the markets may see this inflation very because of the strength of the current economy and employment. Thus raising returns on the long end of the TLT curve, expecting this rise in inflation. This will serve as an opposite wind for investors/gold traders as gold is usually weak in high -interest environments. The speculators may face short -term losses, while the two afflicted may see a decrease in the urgency of gold if stability in US dollar returns.

Source: Barchart

Technically, gold is still in a long -term upward direction. The weekly graph shows how gold has been constantly circulated on the simple moving average for 50 weeks (SMA) since it was broken over $ 2000. The current bull market has been traded at severe distances from 50 SMA, which leads to fears that the price may need to return to the center to correct some rise in the market. The followers of the trend will continue to respect this upward upward trend by circulating what they see the market and do not try to predict what it might do.

I hope to say that this upward trend is now in the hands of strong hands, who run money, but I can’t. The following graphs will help explain my words.

Source: Exchange of the CME group

The COT report explains how to manage the price (the yellow line) in 2022 at the lowest level and began in the upward direction. With the increase in gold prices, every new height was met with purchase of new management money (blue bars). However, the heights in 2024 were the last time the money was managed increased its total total sites with every new price in gold. Seeing the prices of prices and restricting the money managed from the aggressive purchase made me wonder who was doing all this new purchase?

Source: Exchange of the CME group

I have reviewed commercial merchants and swap merchants, who had no purchase, then non -scales, and found aggressive buyers. Unfortunately, non -non -capable traders rarely enjoy the force of the formerly listed merchants. Not reporting that they are only traded with retail, but they can be larger for speculators who traded the sizes of contracts under the level that can be reported. The unreliable scales continued to purchase high levels of gold until the highest levels ever. I do not consider this a sale signal, but it tells me that it may not take much to create a series of gold market prices, which may be like a vacuum where young traders rush to exits at the same time. The interviews are not associated with doing these prices well, and the direction continues. I just wanted to refer to this COT report as a yellow science of caution.

While writing, the gold market had a big step, and some of the elements that I mentioned in a reflective wind may cause the gold prices to rise. Although I believe a firm belief in following the direction, I would like to be aware of the upcoming events that may affect the market that chooses trading.

Gold historically had major moves from July to early September. Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) to search widely in the gold market. This led to the finding of this possible upcoming opportunity.

As a decisive reminderWhile seasonal patterns can provide valuable visions, they should not be the basis for trading decisions. Traders must consider many technical and basic indicators, risk management strategies, and market conditions to make informed and balanced trading decisions.

Source: MRCI

MRCI is looking for profitable seasonal patterns and patterns with the lowest decrease during the seasonal period (yellow box). After all, who wants to sit by drawing a big way on the way to a possible profit? Gold has followed its seasonal pattern for 15 years somewhat well since the beginning of the year. Mars usually sees a type of type, side or down. The gold market has been circulated sideways since then. Is it now ready to start its seasonal gathering in July?

I have added the RSI to the seasonal chart. In Uptrends, it is not unusual for markets to enter into corrections and end when the relative power index is returned to the vicinity of the vicinity by 50 %. The gold market had three of these corrections, as they saw each of them bounce in the price. Gold began the seasonal purchase window in July, and the relative strength index may hover around the level of 50 %. coincidence?

MRCI Research has found that gold in December was closed above August 23 for July 24 for 12 years of the past fifteen years, by 80 %. During this time, four years did not have a daily decrease in conclusion. During the virtual tests, the average gold reached about 47 points, and $ 4,700 per profit trade during this seasonal window.

Source: MRCI

In the past, future traders can participate in these moves using the standard size contract (GC) or the small size contract (GR), and stock traders can use the CDF (GLD). In addition, investors can buy material gold in the immediate market.

Although the GR contract is more affordable than GC for many merchants, there is still a large demand for a smaller gold contract than the retail base. To answer this request, the CME group launched a 1 ounce gold contract on January 13, 2025, targeting the retail agent.

The new golden contract specifications are:

• Contract size: 1 ounce

• Pricing: US dollars and Sint an ounce

• Brand size: $ 0.25 (note GC and GR contracts are $ 0.10)

• Trading code: 1Oz

• Months of expiration: February, April, June, August, October, December

• Method of settlement: Criticism has been settled

Contract features 1 ocean for merchants provides a more accurate tracking price. Future contracts 1Oz are directly associated with the immediate price, providing accurate exposure to the market.

Bulls Gold Market enjoyed a great operation, as prices increased by 117 % from $ 1,618 in October 2022 to the highest level of $ 3,509.9 by July 2025, for all future contracts. The central bank purchases were added, with the addition of 1045 metric tons in 2024 to each World Gold Council, and geopolitical tensions, such as American commercial conflicts, to pay the demand. However, the possible opposite winds looming on the horizon: the new Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 can reduce short -term rates, raising inflation fears and raising long long returns, which historically pressure gold. Tarkers face short -term risks if the returns are high, while the editors may see a less need for gold if the dollar stabilizes. The COT (CO) commitment report is raised cautious, and it appears to non -reporting traders, not managed funds, and lead the last highlands, for all CME collection data. These younger players, who raise bets during July 2025, lack the power of survival for the most messive money traders, indicating the risk of sharp sales if the morale turns.

Seasoning, the Gold Rally supports from July to September, with an 80 % higher chance on August 23, for the Moore Research Center data, bulls, especially with the relative strength index near 50 %, a level linked to the past. However, merchants must weigh this against excessive technology, as gold is circulating much higher than the moving average for 50 weeks. For those looking for trading, the new CME GROP (1 ounce) futures contract, which was launched on January 13, 2025, offers retail traders with a stable cash and affordable prices for immediate prices, and the completion of normative contracts (GC) and small contracts (GR). The speculators can take advantage of the fluctuations, while the editors gain an accurate exposure to protecting from economic uncertainty. Despite the risks, the trend remains optimistic, but merchants must monitor COT transformations and changes in the Federal Reserve Chair site to move in potential corrections.

On the date of publication, Don Dawson had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com