Deutsche Bank strategy says that the risk of overthrowing is lower

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President Donald Trump’s potential dismissal to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is the main and non -archaeological risk that can lead to the sale of US dollars and the treasury treasury, German bank The strategy said AG.

Trump said this week “Immediately resigned,” If the allegations of the administration official said that the central bank has misled the legislators due to the renovations to the headquarters of the Federal Reserve. He added the observation to the increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, who demanded the discounts of aggressive interest rates and indicated that he might nominate a successor before the end of Powell.

Powell resisted pressure to relieve monetary policy and said he would not step down if the president asked, given the independence of the Federal Reserve. While admitting the costs of costs related to renewal work, Powell opposed parts of reports on this issue and described them as “categorically misleading.”

George Saravilus, head of Deutsche’s global strategy, said in a customer report that the market “is very lowly low” from Powell that is removed from the office. He referred to polymarket, the platform of betting, which was appointed Less than 20 % chance By this, he noticed that the dollar was widely stable recently.

Saravilus said that if Trump was forced Powell to go out, it is likely that the 24 hours would likely witness a decrease of at least 3 % to 4 % in the growing dollar, in addition to selling a fixed income from 30 to 40 points. He said that Greenback and Bonds would carry a “continuous” risk, adding that investors may also grow anxiety about the potential politicization of the Federal Reserve’s exchange lines with other central banks.

“It is possible that investors will explain this event as a direct insult to independence, which puts the central bank under extremist institutional coercion,” Saravilus said. “With the federal reserve at the top of the dollar’s global monetary system, it also states that the consequences will be echoed beyond the borders of the United States.”

Saravilus said how the markets continue to interact outside the initial news depend on whether the other Federal Reserve officials are publicly gathered around the independence of the central bank, Trump’s nomination for Powell and the state of the economy.

behind “This is concerned about the very weak external financing situation that the American economy currently finds in itself,” he said. ”

In another report, Ingreen Strategists at Groep NV, including PaHraic Garvey, said that the early exit from Powell was “unlikely”, but they would lead to the decline in the treasury return curve as investors seek lower rates, faster enlargement and decrease in the federal reserve independence.

They said that he would also create a “poisonous mix” for the dollar, as the euro, yen and Swiss francs are scheduled to benefit from it.



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