Market fluctuations are declining as investors brush the Trump tariff threats

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Market fluctuations have decreased to nearly the lowest levels per year, and stocks are trading in record levels, as anxiety dissolves Donald Trump’s tariff despite the escalation of his commercial war.

NVIDIA has led an increase in technology shares this week as the chips maker reached an unprecedented rating of 4 meters, while the VIX index, a measure of expected fluctuations in the short term in the S&P 500 index, decreased to 16, less than average in the long term about 20.

A similar indication of the expected volatility in the US government bond market is close to its lowest level in three years.

These moves come even when the US President launched a barrage of new trade threats this week, including a 50 percent tariff on copper, 200 percent on the pharmaceutical sector, and fees on countries including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

“I don’t care about definitions anymore,” said Max Keitner, head of the HSBC multiple asset strategy. “All this is imposed on himself. What prevents them from saying, let’s give him another three months?”

Trump’s latest movements on customs duties bring their levels closer to what some analysts in the sharp duties that were unveiled in early April have expected dozens of American commercial partners.

However, these “mutual” initial definitions were later postponed and re -negotiated after the shares were moved, then Trump restored the deadline for the implementation of duties again from July 9 to August.

As a result, investors now take the threats of the current American president less serious than they have taken his early speech, and they are betting that the president will eventually retract the customs tariff that seriously hurts our growth.

Trade has become known in the market as “Taco”, and it is an abbreviation for “Trump always goes out.”

“May 12) ascending, this was the great game change,” Keitner said, referring to the date that the United States faced a deal with China, as the two sides sharply reduced the previously planned definitions, prompting investors to return to risky assets.

“We have learned that there is Trump,” he added.

In the currency markets, Trump’s threat by 50 percent on Brazil on Wednesday, but the broader markets are calm.

The indicators of the CME group for the expected swing in exchange rates such as European countries have declined significantly from its highest levels in April, which are almost at the level where it was circulated at the beginning of the year.

“There is an opinion that the Trump administration is unlikely to want to repeat the disruption resulting from the” liberation day “tariff in early April.

“I can see that it is tested, but I expect the Taco trade to remain, with any fluctuations that offer a chance,” Matthias Chaper, Head of the United States of the United States.

But investors have warned that heavy feelings in stock markets themselves can encourage Trump to increase his aggression against trade more than the market currently expects.

“With the presence of US shares in high and budget, there is a risk that can encourage Trump to make it difficult with the tariffs more than expected,” Hardman said.

Some investors feel more anxious than the market is pricing in a degree of satisfaction, as the S&P approaches standard levels and trade in the price ratio to profits to 24.

“What worries me is that there is no significant safety margin now in assessments,” said Kasper Elmgreen, CIO for stock and fixed income in Nordea Asset Management.

“We have the greatest increase in definitions in the living memory of anyone, but (the market) takes a very comfortable look about what it might do,” said Elmgreen. “I am concerned about not worrying.”