Trump may have dropped an idea on social media that the job number will not be good

Most economists argue that President Trump’s identification policy will harm the economy by raising the price of anything that Americans need to import and by transferring some supply chains to the United States, where the costs are higher and manufacturing are less efficient.

But inflation and unemployment rate barely divert, and solid data so far shows little damage. In fact, excessive companies from abroad may have an attempt to operate the deadline for filming the executive director. more Economic activity in the first half.

However, the federal government reduced jobs, and there was a mass demobilization in a number of companies – Microsoft Recently. The ADP special salary lists report showed a decrease in 33,000 jobs in June.

The total economists of Pantheon Samuel Thompses and Oliver Allen believe that the ADP number is garbage.

They said in a note that was seen before luck. “ADP has reduced the initial estimate of special lists for special salaries for more than 100,000 in both April and May, and the size of these errors is out of unusual … ADP suggests that employment in manufacturing and distribution, construction sectors, which is currently facing employment of usual acts in the field of classification, which is about it in June. It cannot be relied upon as its main numbers.

The Pantheon team is also anxious about the private residential construction, which decreased by 6.7 % year on year in May.

Pantheon is estimated to increase 100,000 in non -cultivated salaries. Goldman Sachs prediction is 85,000. Consensus is 110,000.

“The huge data indicators were soft, and we can end the temporary protected situation of about 350,000 Venezuelan immigrants in mid -May will impose a 25,000 dose, and we expect a decrease of 15,000 in the salaries of the federal government.

UBS also believes that the number may be low.

“There is a hint that may be weak today,” said Paul Donovan. “American presidents usually sees data on the night before. Last night, US President Trump issued a publication on social media calling for the resignation of the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Understanding in politics and the largest tax increase in recent times, is likely to harm the labor market more than the Federal Reserve policy, but this post may refer to weak data.”

I usually like stock traders when unemployment increases because when companies climb workers, they also reduce costs, and this appears at a minimum with increased profits to the stock.

The S&P 500 Futures hold this morning and the indexers resigned to the highest new level ever. JPMorgan says retail traders have returned to the market in the past two weeks.

Assemble all these clues – the low number of ADP, the weak indicators in the data, and Trump tries to blame Powell in everything, and the retail merchants who buy the market – indicate that investors are betting on today’s job number will be dark.

Of course, if they are all wrong, I expect a fluctuation in the markets today as investors eat a large segment of the crow and Trump takes a loud victory.

Here is a snapshot of the procedure before the opening bell in New York:

• The S&P futures were marginal this morning
• S&P 500 has a new high, 6227.42.
• The markets in Europe and the United Kingdom were heading in early trading.
• Nasdak The compound was about 1 %.
• Dao Jones was flat.
• South Korea KosPI increased by 1.34 % this morning.
• The Chinese CSI 300 index increased by 0.62 %.
• Bitcoin at 109 thousand dollars.
• Japan Nikki 225 flat.