Sugar cane grows in Hawaii by Derek Miller via Pixiabay
October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) decreased -0.61 (-3.77 %), and August London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWQ25) decreased -11.60 (-2.45 %).
Sugar prices have been sold sharply today, as the sugar in New York Ortness decreased to a decrease in the new nodes and London sugar decreased to the lowest level in the week 1-1/2 weeks. Weak signs of demand amid large sugar supply expectations weighing prices. About 45,000 metric tons were delivered from NY SUGAR to settle the sugar contract in July, which ended on Monday, the smallest amount to be delivered for this time of the year 11 years ago, a sign of weak demand. On Monday, NY Sugar has registered 4-1/4 years low.
The largest sugar supply expectations limit the bullish trend in sugar prices. On Monday, the CZANIKOW commodity dealer expected a global surplus of global sugar 7.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is the largest surplus in 8 years.
Sugar prices have decreased during the past three months due to global sugar surplus expectations. On May 22, the US Department of Agriculture expected, in its classic report, that the production of global sugar 2025/26 will increase by +4.7 % on an annual basis to 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with international sugar stocks at 41.188 million metric tons, an increase of 7.5 % on an annual basis.
The expectations for high sugar production in India, the second largest producer in the world, are downward. On June 2, the National Union of Cooperative Diabetes expected that sugar production in India 2025/26 in India will climb +19 % on an annual basis to 35 million tons, citing a larger cane area. The outlook can lead to abundant precipitation in India to the abundant sugar crop, which is a declining prices. On April 15, the Ministry of Earth Sciences in India expected more seasonal winds of this year, with 105 % of the total rainy medium expectations. The seasonal wind season in India will last from June to September.
The signs of the largest global sugar production are negative for prices. On May 22, foreign agricultural service in the US Department of Agriculture (FAS) predicted that the production of sugar in Brazil 2025/26 would rise +2.3 % year on an annual basis to a record of 44.7 million tons. Also, the production of sugar in India is expected to increase 2025/26 +25 % on an annual basis to 35.3 metric tons, citing favorable wind and increasing sugar space. In addition, sugar production is expected to climb 2025/26 from Thailand +2 % on an annual basis to 10.3 million tons.
In a declining factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 million tons of sugar this season, which reduces the restrictions imposed on sugar exports in 2023. India has adhered to sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate household supplies. India allowed Mills to export 6.1 million tons of sugar only during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing a record number 11.1 million tons in the previous season. However, ISMA highlights that the production of sugar 2024/25 in India will decrease by 17.5 % on an annual basis to the lowest level in 5 years of 26.2 million tons. ISMA also stated last Monday that the production of sugar in India from October 1, May 15, was 25.74 million metric tons, a decrease of -17 % from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Minister Chopra said on May 1 that sugar exports in India 2024/25 may reach a total of 800,000 metric tons, below the previous expectations of 1 million tons.
Expectations for high sugar production in Thailand are low for sugar. On May 2, the Thailand office in sugar cane and sugar reported that the production of sugar 2024/25 from Thailand increased +14 % year on an annual basis to 10.00 million tons. Thailand is the third largest sugar producer in the world and the second largest sugar exporter.
Sugar prices have some support from low sugar production in Brazil. UNICA reported on Monday that the cumulative output 2025/26, Brazil, the southern center until mid -June, decreased by -14.6 % on an annual basis to 9.404 million tons. Last month, Konab, the government -predicature of Brazil, said that the production of sugar in Brazil in 2024/25 decreased by -3.4 % on an annual basis to 44.118 million metric tons, citing low sugar cane depressions due to dehydration and excessive heat.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised the forecasts of the World Sugar deficit for the year 2024/25 to the highest level in 9 years of -5.47 million tons on May 15, up from February -88 m This indicates a tightening market after the global sugar surplus 2023/24 of 1.31 million tons. ISO has also reduced the forecast of international sugar production for the year 2024/25 to 174.8 million tons of February forecast 175.5 million tons.
The US Department of Agriculture expected, in its annual bilateral report, which was released on May 22, that the production of global sugar 2025/26 will increase +4.7 % on an annual basis to 189.318 million metric tons, and that global sugar consumption 2025/26 will increase +1.4 % on an annual basis to 177.921 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture also expected that the storage of 2025/26 global sugar would climb +7.5 % year on year to 41.188 million tons.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
