Avoid Ottawa as a commercial setback. But Trump can come to the supply management after that

Dreams come true. US President Donald Trump wished Canada tax on American technology companies to disappear on Friday, By Sunday, he had.

Mostly, there was a feeling of surprise that the federal government would play such a valuable card soon. Digital Service Tax (DST), which Ottawa was supposed to start collecting on Monday, was unpopular with the United States government and the technical giants that it targeted – Meta and Amazon, for example – appropriately, was not particularly loved By business groups at home.

By canceling this, Canadian negotiators pushed a kind of loss on the road to a commercial deal with the United States – where they continued to talk. But this step can support Canada against the wall in a distant thorny case of supply management.

“I think we can expect that they will come after us (supply management) as well, because it was a long irritation,” said Fein Hampson, a professor of international affairs and a co -chair of the University of Experts in Relations between Canada at the University of Carlton at Ottawa.

Trump I have long objected to The dairy system runs in Canada, complains about what it describes as high tariff rates on American dairy exports to Canada (more about that later). It made it a problem leading to the 2018 negotiating of the Canadian-USA Convention (CUSMA), but eventually allowed the free trade deal to pass without addressing it.

Now, Trump has returned to making stinks around our cheese. On Friday, Canada accused American farmers with a 400 percent tariff for “years” on dairy products.

But when it comes to dairy, Trump’s desire will not be easily fulfilled, thanks to the recently passed C-202 bill, which prevents management from using it as a bargaining in trade in commercial negotiations.

The draft law has been criticized because it is likely to connect the hands of Ottawa if the US president issued an alarm aimed at Canadian dairy – and threatens to disturb Parliament, which, since the federal elections, often to allocate partisan differences in the face of Trump’s threats.

Hampson said the additional difficulty was “definitely recorded with the White House.”

“Enormous” power

In the south, the bush cut from DST was welcomed as a victory. Trump’s commercial actor Howard Lootnick Canada thanked him for removing him, describing him as “breaking a deal on any trade deal” with the United States, while White House economic advisor Kevin Haysit said that removing the tax paved the way to renew the talks.

The White House press secretary Caroline Levit seemed to decline, saying that Carney was “greater” for Trump’s demands and that it was wrong to prepare Canada with the first place.

But if there is any indication of what will come next, then it was from Hoixtra. The US ambassador to Canada, talks about CBC’s Power and politics On Monday evening, he said he believed that Carney would push Parliament to re -manage the offer on the table if the deal between the United States and Canada depends on it.

He said: “I have a strong belief that if … the prime minister and the president reached a commercial agreement, and for what reason that included something the parliament said,” You cannot do that, “maybe the Prime Minister may find a way to obtain a parliament (his will).”

“Prime Minister and Presidents, they have a huge amount of strength.”

“If Trump really wants to put economic pressure on Canada,” said Asa Maccher, a professor at the Melrone Institute at St. Francis University in Antigone.

Trump’s demands about the dairy systems in Canada are often inaccurate. The high tariff rates apply to American dairy products only if exports exceed the specified shares, and the United States has never approached them (one of the American dairy pressure organization argues that this is because of “” “Protection measures“Canada imposes). Under the categories, American dairy products are free from customs tariffs under CUSMA.

While the milk lobby in Canada Welcoming C-202 passage, some cultivation Industry leaders He argues that he suffocates their industries in favor of strengthening dairy, and gives the country Small fluctuation room Trump must come up with more privileges.

“I think the Carney government is now entering a position in which the rubber will reach the road,” said Maccher. “If you have benefited from the digital tax, is this privilege that Mr. Trump will see as a concession and accept, or will Mr. Trump continue to pay Canada and say, well, what about the supply administration?”

The “existential” issue of liberals

He says this is a “dangerous area”, for Carney’s minority government, which needs support from other parties to pass its agenda.

“If the current government appears to be submitting a draft law threatening to manage the offer, this may create a lot of political headache.”

Bill C-202 has been sponsored by the Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blacet as a sign of the party base in Quebec where the dairy planting industry is largely concentrated. Conservatives are also looking to expand in the province, while maintaining their rural base in Ontario.

Hampson said: “This is the place where the issue becomes existential for the political wealth of Carne’s liberal government.”

“So this will be difficult. I am not sure that there is really any way to raise this circle if the Americans decide to move forward with it.”

Lori Turnbull, a professor of political science at Delhuzi University, says three weeks remaining until the deadline on July 21 for a new commercial deal in Canada and the United States, the talks between Trump and Carney will likely reach the finish line.

But with Trump’s annoyance with the supply management, “It is a matter that will this be enough for him for a short time? How long?” She said.

“Now that we have given a privilege and Trump sees it as a win for him, is there a chance now in this short period of time (where Canada can transfer some things to where Trump feels … a real free trade relationship and a new economic and security agreement for Canada and the United States in the interest of the American as well.”