What are the chances of the land that the big asteroid affects?

A week ago, the new Vera C Robin Observatory She released her first photos. It also included a video clip of all the asteroids he discovered. Within just 10 hours, the Simonyi Telescope of a survey with the old scanning of the space and time camera (LSST) acquired more than 2000 asteroids not previously discovered.

It is a reminder that while there is a large space in space, our solar system still has a lot.

Asteroids are rocks and debris that left the formation of our solar system. There are two main areas where there are many of them. The first is the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. The second is the Koyber belt, behind the orbit of Neptune.

But there is still a lot of floating around it.

Scientists can almost this 44 tons of meteorite debris fall towards the ground every day. This is true: every day.

The good news is that most of them burn in Jonah.

But what are the chances of a much larger object in the course of collision with the Earth?

“The Earth has been injured in the past by large asteroids, and it is assumed, if we wait for a long time, but the danger is very small,” said Paul Wittrt, a professor at the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Western University in London.

“Therefore, no one of the asteroids we know today has a great opportunity to hit the Earth’s next year or so. This is a very healthy time horizon.”

However, there is nothing to ensure that nothing has been discovered yet is not on his way.

“While we go beyond that, there is always an opportunity to discover new asteroids, of course, and cannot be predicted, but it is difficult to predict in great detail, at longer distances.”

The importance of being serious

There are many groups that wipe the sky that is looking for asteroids, and Wegert said that the Vera C. Rubin Observatory raises the search as it has not happened before.

He said: “The Vera Robin telescope will revolutionize the way this type of work is done. I think it is even the people who know what to expect, and who knew that this was descending in the pipeline, admired the way LSST-Rubin managed to really diving and start finding these things.” “So it will be a very impressive discovery machine.”

I found NASA more than 1.4 billion asteroidsIt is believed to have selected more than 95 percent of asteroids one kilometer or larger In our solar system.

Estimates indicate that the Robin Observatory will discover 89,000 semi -earth and 3.7 million main belt asteroids.

Now, exposure to the asteroid is truly possibilities.

Smaller creatures, such as asteroids with a diameter of about 10 meters Impact on the ground once a decade. Although it is not the end of the planet, they can break the windows. Chelyabinsk meteorite that exploded over Russia in 2013 was twice that size, and it has already broke the windows, which hit about 1500 people.

Watch | A news report on Nizorit for the year 2013 that struck Russia https://www.youtube.com/watch?

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The greater the rock, the more effect on the ground. For example, the asteroid, which is 140 meters long, affects almost once every 1000 years and one in size is about one kilometer every 700,000 years. The asteroid this size will be devastating.

The size was about 10 to 15 km. It is estimated that these effects occur once every 100 million years.

Jim FreeMantle is the project manager for the Osiris-Rex Laser project at York University in Toronto. Osiris-Rex was the task of returning the sample to the Bennu asteroid. He has a small piece of asteroid in his laboratory.

He believes it is important to track and understand asteroids better in general.

“I don’t lie awake, I wonder, as you know, it is an asteroid of the murderer of dinosaurs who will come and destroy us all. We have other things that worry about,” he said.

“It is something I think it is wise to start thinking, measure a place or search for asteroids, because sometimes they infiltrate us.”

He also said he was enthusiastic about the presence of these monitoring systems, and also through plans to try to convert any asteroid may be in a collision with the Earth.

In particular, NASA notice The task of redirect the double asteroid (DART) To a dual system. The goal was to know if we could move the asteroid by closing something to one.

The spacecraft in one of the asteroids crashed to see if this might change its orbit. It was considered success. And now it has the European Space Agency The spacecraft is on its way to the system For more follow -up notes.

The asteroid to influence the moon?

Weightt and his team recently released a pre -printing study around 2024 YR4, a newly discovered asteroid size 60 meters, which sparked some concerns at some point in his chance of the influence of the Earth in 2032.

But we now got the green light to stop worrying about it, as astronomers have improved the asteroid orbit, and it turned out that it would not affect the Earth.

However, there is still four percent chance that it will strike the moon.

In the new study of Wegert and his calculated colleagues How it might seem that.

He usually said, when the asteroid hits the moon or any planet without an atmosphere, it makes the hole about 10 times its size.

As for the year 2024 YR4, if it hit the moon, the rocks and debris will explode with most of the falls below the moon. The authors said that some of these small rocks could make their way to the ground.

“If it reaches the right place, many materials can be delivered to the Earth in the form of small moon rocks mainly, and perhaps a centimeter size or a millimeter size, perfect for making shooting stars and fall stars, and this would produce a wonderful meteor shower on the ground for several days, depending on again, and completely dry on the moon,” said Wegert.

However, it would also pose a threat to satellite.

But Wegert expects to be more polishing the orbit – which will not happen until the oldest 2028, as is currently behind the sun – the chances of occurrence to scratch will decrease.

Wegert also explained why it takes time to get a better estimate in the asteroid path.

“You can see that it is moving across the sky very well, but it is very difficult to know how long after it,” he said.

“Only after seeing it for a long period of time and knowing the laws of physics and how gravity affects orbit, you can really improve it and say,” Well, if it follows the laws of physics, which you must do, and it is going along this path. “

When asked if he had lost any sleep because of the possibility of an asteroid hitting the ground, he said and tied simply, “No.”

“We have really seen most dangerous asteroids, and we are continuing to work hard to find the largest number of asteroids a little less but they are somewhat dangerous, especially with something like the upcoming Robin Observatory via the Internet here, and now that this task will move somewhat even faster than it was.”