How the war became contagious

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Not so long ago, we lived in one of the most peaceful ages in modern history. The year 2005 witnessed the lowest deaths recorded in armed conflict since World War II, according to the conflict data program in Uppsala. How the times change. Last year, there were 61 “state opposition”, which is more than 1946, and it is reported that the Peace Research Institute is Oslo. Now add Israel’s conflict Iran. Why are there a lot of wars?

The only thing the worse than the biased and brutal police force is not a police force at all. The world faced this transformation this century. The nineties were among the world policemen, the United States and the United Nations. After the invasion of Iraq in 1990, the United Nations resolution authorized the member states to remove it. In that contract, the American policeman patrolled the world, and he seeks to obtain nearly a monopoly of international violence. “The International Community” (meaning that the friends of the United States in addition to friends) only tolerated civil wars in the arenas: Somalia, Rwanda, Yugoslavia.

The peaceful standards reached their climax in the late 1990s, when the treaties banned landmines and established the International Criminal Court. After that, in 2003, America’s invasion of Iraq installed both policemen: the United Nations, because the United States acted without its consent, and then, the United States itself, after this catastrophic war was created from the permanent local taboo to send forces abroad. With the reaffirmation of China and Russia, the “international community” was dissolved.

The chaos in the world became visible in August 2013, when the Syrian dictator Bashar al -Assad used the two sarin gas to kill 1,400 people in a suburb of Damascus. Barack Obama has warned that chemical attacks will be a “red line”. But he did not act. The American policeman had retired. Six months later, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.

Countries became outlaw, slaughtering civilians, yet they barely paid a price. Imagine if an “international society” punished Assad, Putin, or the United States because of its “global war on terror”, or Muhammad bin Salman for the war of war in Yemen, or Paul Kajami from Rwanda to become Putin in Central Africa, or Israel to destroy Gaza, where they punished Iraq in 1990. Stephen Evertz, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, says: “The base that you cannot use violence to resolve political conflicts has faded. Infectious “.

America no longer pretends to respect the standards. Iran’s bombing Without the approval of Congress or the United Nations, it can be said that the constitution of the United States and international law. Donald Trump tolerates all international aggressors except Iran. The only conflict area in which “shoes on the ground” are Los Angeles.

Trump also introduced a dysfunctional world -class pushed. He cut off the main factors in the National Security Council, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Intelligence Agencies, and put a 22 -year -old campaign employee responsible for the Anti -Terrorism Department of Internal Security. The vast security complex in Washington has been replaced by the real estate developer Steve WitkevWho first came to Trump’s notification by paying the price of his sandwich in the delicious New York. Witkoff could not nullify simultaneous peace deals in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. Israel planned war with Iran. The United States is just a sleep behind it.

In this world of non -frustration, making a new weapon cheaper in war and easier. In 2018, there are still more than 1,000 drones around the world. Today’s drones are about 70 percent of deaths in the Ukrainian war.

The poor Ukraine calls itself, with some justification, “the global pioneer in the war of aircraft drone.” It aims to produce 4.5 million Done aircraft this year. Even the Houthi rebels in Yemen can fed global inflation through deprived ships. Myanmar engineer “can build drones for rebels from a cave using 3D printing, spare parts from Chinese commercial drones, and acquired knowledge of online chat rooms”, write researchers from the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology.

Done aircraft improve by the month, and change the calculus and geopolitical integration account. China, the dominant product in the world of drones, can use the military as well as a sea blockade to subjugate Taiwan, without the need for a bloody naval invasion. Sanders of the drone, which is controlled by the upcoming artificial intelligence, can also reach the hands of terrorists as well.

What can be done? Evertz says that a global police jungle, we can appoint some of them regional, for example, a kind of European neighborhood watch. Everything will feel fragile. Lack of values ​​is the historical standard in international affairs. After a short happy deviation, he returned.

Email Simon in [email protected]

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