The British pound is expected to continue to rise against the US dollar.
Matt Kardi Gety pictures
the British pound It is hovering at its highest level in more than three years – analysts are divided into the possibility of more upward trend.
Britain’s currency was last seen trading on a brand of $ 1.36 on Wednesday morning in London.
It was a slight decrease from Tuesday, when the pound reached its highest level since January 2022.
To date this year, the pound has risen by 8.7 % against Greenback.
GBP/USD price
Against the euroHowever, the pound sterling decreased by 2.9 % year to date. The last time in trading was seen marginally higher against the euro area currency, with one pound purchased about 1.173 euros.
Poor dollar
According to the RBC Brewin Dolphin, most of the bullish path of the RBC Brewin Dolphin, most of the bullish path of the Pound is more than the basic dollar than the belief in the British pound itself.
“The relative power of the pound was more vulnerable US dollar “This year’s story,” CNBC told e -mail on Wednesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies are unpredictable He shook confidence in American assets earlier this yearWhich in turn raised concerns about the market about canceling the channel.
Paul Jackson, the global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said that the pound was on a healing journey from the “extremist depression” that was seen in the wake of former British Prime Minister Liz Tossus The so -called small budgetWhich ignited Severe sale Of government bonds and United Kingdom in 2022.
However, he agreed that many movement this year is due to the weakness of the dollar, pointing to the sterling neglect simultaneously against the euro.
Will the pound sterling?
“I expect this pattern to continue in the future, with the dollar weakening alongside the American economy (and the investor doubts the US financial and definition policies), while the euro can enhance optimism about the effects of the upcoming financial reinforcement (especially in Germany),” Jackson said in Ingo.
He said that the European Central Bank has probably completed most of the cash dilution of the current session, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve “have a lot of catching a knee.”
Jackson added: “Within 12 months, I expect GBPUSD to be about 1.40 and GBPEUR around 1.15 (currently 1.17),” Jackson added.
Jackson’s expectations are approximately 2.9 % of current exchange rates against the dollar.
MUI of RBC Brewin Dolphin suggested that in the coming months, expectations for the British pound are not excessively convincing – but I noticed that geopolitical developments can stimulate more long -term escalating movements.
She said: “In the short term, the bullish trend may be more limited due to the softening economic momentum in the UK and the larger scope of England Bank to reduce prices,” she said.
“Given the future, one of the potential stimuli of the pound can be improved with relations with the European Union, especially if it translates into a more tangible procedure over time.”
Brian Manguero, Director of Investment at the Multiple Asset Group in Parines, has seen more pessimistic.
“We come to GBP in the medium term. We expect EURGBP at 0.875 and GBPUSD at 1.30 in (six months),” he told CNBC via email on Wednesday.
He said that the background of the total economy does not justify the performance of the British pound against Greenback this year, and this is instead to a reflection of A. Selling postpartum day from the US dollar.
Public dollar index so far.
“The markets were excessively donations in the following UK The budget of the Counselor ReevesHe added. Thus, positive data surprises have become supportive of GBP. However, we still expect to slow economic growth in the United Kingdom; The signs already appear, which are also recognized by the Bank of England. This supports more discounts in operations prices, and eventually weighs the pound. “
Manguero also indicated that, from his point of view, it seemed that the risk of canceling the countries was “excessive.”
“Feelings are likely to be reflected with the passage of growth in the United States, and companies’ profits remain flexible,” he said. “Along with the location of the current short short dollar, this should support the recovery of the international dollar, and withdraw the cable less.”
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