Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and the new Middle East

The boom of explosions, which is frequented throughout Doha in the Qatari capital, initially suggested that the worst scenario in the Middle East became a reality: the conflict between Israel and Iran was spoken on the border and threatened to flood the region.

However, with dust stabilizing on Monday, it became clear that the missile barrages in Iran at the military base in the United States have been tweeting, as the missiles were intercepted and no victims-a calibration response that paves the way for Donald Trump to hours after it was announced that the Israeli war was shot.

However, the area is far from peace. The armistice – which was disposed of within two hours with not announced terms – is fragile. Israel pledged to respond “strongly” on any violation; The Islamic system said that it was fully prepared “with their fingers on the trigger” to avenge any new attacks.

“The current moment has a real atmosphere,” said Michael Wahd Hanna in the Crisis Group. “We are in a place much better than where things may go if we enter a kind of a full biotrape, but there are still a lot of questions.”

Without a clearly defined follow-up agreement, Israel-more encouraged and contracting its enemies in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023-would enter Iran for a period of intermittent attacks.

Israel is carrying out almost daily air strikes in Lebanon, despite its agreement to a ceasefire with Iranian -backed Hezbollah in November, but the Islamic regime is a more enormous possibility.

While the weak Hezbollah has been quietly taking, Tehran would be more likely to respond to any future Israeli aggression and showed that the most destructive missile arsenal.

Iran is also expected to immediately start rebuilding its destructive military capacity. Despite the damage to its nuclear sites by Israeli bombs and the United States, it still maintains its 400 kg stocks of uranium enriched near the degree levels.

Huge questions are now clinging to how Trump and Netanyahu will seek to deal with the constant threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program.

Before Israel launched its war, the Trump administration was working in indirect talks to resolve the crisis. But this process was raised by Netanyahu’s decision – with the support of Trump’s implicit – to strike at the Islamic Republic.

A preliminary report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which leaked to the American media, said that the American strikes restored the program with less than six months. With Tehran’s storage of highly enriched uranium without the missing meter – and with the republic retention of the knowledge and technology it has established in recent years – the danger of the regime that decides the weapons to restore its deterrent is still standing.

Any signs that would have risked more Israeli fire, with Netanyahu’s warning on Tuesday, Israel was ready to repeat its attack if the Islamic Republic tried to revive its nuclear program.

“If someone in Iran believes that he can rebuild the nuclear program, we will act in the same way,” he said. “I repeat: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

Many will depend on Trump, the President of the United States, the most supportive of Israel in history.

He has so far refused to increase pressure on Israel to end its 20-month destroyed war in Gaza-even when Netanyahu violated the ceasefire in January, helped Trump’s envoys in the mediator-or curb the settlers in the occupied West Bank.

But Trump also showed a tendency to work against Netanyahu’s interests when he serves his own goals.

He ended an American military campaign against the Houthi rebels supported by the Iranians in Yemen while they continued to shoot Israel, and met with Syrian President Ahmad Al -Sharra, a man who condemned Israel as a dangerous jihadist, and lifted sanctions on the Arab state.

When Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire on Tuesday, hours after it entered into force, Trump was quickly calling the two sides at the edge loaded with protection.

If he is still following a nuclear deal with Iran, Trump will face the main bloc that has faltered on previous efforts: Washington’s demand to stop enriching uranium locally, which is a red line for the regime.

If Trump made concessions, will this be enough to prevent any other Israeli strikes? If Iran refuses to surrender, does that again raise the specter of military strikes?

“Israel still relies on American, military and diplomatic support, and this reaches its core, which is: What does Donald Trump want?” Hanna said. “Trump has an opportunity to excite Israel in a way that differs from previous administrations, but in general it has not necessarily showed a tendency to do so.”

The early test could come soon, after Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Muhammad bin Abdul Rahman said on the second-who helped Trump, the Israeli mediator, Iran, on Tuesday, said that Doha hopes to resume the talks about the stopping of Gaza in the next two days.

Arab and Western leaders said for decades that resolving the lengthy Palestinian -Israeli conflict is the key to neutralizing extremist powers and addressing one of the main causes of instability throughout the region.

But Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected Western pressure to make any concessions to the Palestinians, not to mention taking steps towards establishing a Palestinian state.

Instead, with support from successive American administrations, Israel has raised its appetite very risk and went to the attack in the wake of the Hamas attack on October 7. On Tuesday, the Israeli Prime Minister pledged to destroy the armed group and liberate the hostages who were still detained in Gaza.

Netanyahu is characterized by changing the balance of power in the Middle East, and clearly clarifying Israel military to all of them after a series of amazing battlefield achievements.

“For many Israelis, the assumption is that this is a good thing as it happens -” there is no next step to end a solid peace, which is the fate of Israel is the struggle in Maadi neighborhood. ”

“There is a complete intellectual school that” the land of peace “, a permanent peace is an illusion, Israel must always be armed of teeth.” But he added, “Does Trump now feel that Netanyahu owes him?”

Ozi Arad, former National Security Adviser to Netanyahu, said that many of Israel’s recent success in the battlefield was due to its enemies who reduce its military capabilities and the threshold of the higher risk.

But this carries his own risks, and warned against Israel, which reduces its enemies, as it did before the Hamas attack caused the wave of hostilities. Likewise, Israel was absent from warnings about a surprise attack in 1973 from its Arab neighbors after amazing victories in the six -day war of the 1967 war.

“Some are already practicing arrogance – I can already discover it,” said Adad, a veterans in Moussad. “We all have weaknesses, and this is a complex country.”

Participated in additional reports by James Stoster in Jerusalem