The price of oil was mainly flat on Monday morning in the United States after Alia opened on Sunday evening in the United States after the military strike on Iran by the Trump administration.
Even the initial increase in the price was somewhat disappointing compared to the horrific predictions that were heard before the attack.
However, from the perspective of truck transport industry, the continuous diesel power was compared to raw and gasoline that might get the most attention.
At approximately 7:05 pm EST, about an hour after trading on many stock exchanges, Brent global crude rose by $ 1.88/barrel to $ 78.89/B, by 2.44 %. The normative American crude, West Texas, increased by 2.52 % to $ 75.70/B, with a profit of $ 1.86 B. RBOB petrol, a semi -made gasoline product as a final gasoline trading platform, increased by 2.19 % to $ 2.3806/gallons, an increase of 5.11 CTS/G. (RBob is basically gasoline without added ethanol).
But it was a very low sulfur diesel (ULSD) that showed the largest increase on Sunday evening. 3.67 % increased to 2.6352/g, an increase of 9.34 CTS/G.
In a noticeable reflection, by 9:30 am EST, oil prices were flat from Friday settlement on the CME Commodity Stock Exchange.
Before 9:30, ULSD decreased about 25 basis points, or 0.09 %. WTI increased by 0.08 % and Brent was slightly lower than 0.2 %.
Later, news stating that two of the oil tankers that initially rotated to avoid passing through the strait, then reflected this decision and helped anyway helped calm the markets.
In an interview with Bloomberg Television that Bloomberg reported, said Bob McNali, the founder of Rapidan Energy Advisers LLC and has a long -time energy -responsible in Washington, said that previous gains in the market have already transferred the price to a level that reflects potential turmoil.
He said: “We have increased by $ 10 a barrel since the war started, and now a little more, so I think there is an appropriate amount of risk in the market.” “Merchants have their breath, pending knowing whether Israel or Iran is bringing this conflict beyond the military and political targets to a circulating energy.” Until now, no one withdrew this trigger, and if they don’t do it, I can see the price reflected. “
If ULSD settled at this level on Monday afternoon in the United States, it will be the highest price since a settlement of $ 2.6513/g is on April 16, 2024.
The most difficult scenario for the oil market in the weeks before the attack by the United States on Iranian nuclear establishments and now in the wake of actual control is the fate of the Strait of Harmouz, a gateway to the Persian golf and the oil exports road from many countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, IRQ and IRAN.
A Reuters report from 2023Quoted from different sources, about 20 % of nearly 103 million barrels/D from consumption passes through the hormone strait every day. There are alternative export methods through a pipeline for some countries, but it is not clear how high the infrastructure of up to 100 % of the capacity can replace regular export levels through the strait.
Hermoz straight is not international water. Part of it is Iranian territorial waters. The other part is the regional waters of Oman.
The Iranian parliament voted at the weekend to close the Strait of Hormuz, although many news reports indicated that the decision should be implemented by such a radical move would return to the leadership of the supreme country.
Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, in an interview with Fox News Sunday, called on China to discourage Iran from pursuing this policy. China is easily the largest Iranian crude agent, and the supply line it takes from Iran across the strait and to China.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to contact them about this, because they rely heavily on the hormone strait on their oil,” said Rubio, according to his reports for his interview.
Other analysts have noted that the closure of the hormonal strait would have a significant impact on Iranian exports, which reduces the most important source of its revenues.
At the same time, the high spread between raw and diesel is a relatively new phenomenon.
In comparison directly from the ULSD to the front month, which spread on Sunday evening, using 7:05 pm, translated into about 75 CTS/Gallon. This is the widest spread since February 2024. A month ago it was about 56 CTS/G.
In its monthly report on the intermediate distillation markets market including diesel, which was published immediately before the actual attack, the oil market analysis company in the energy aspects clarified some of the reasons for the continuation of the diesel force for crude.
EA said: “We see increasing risks to medium distillation due to the escalation of the Israeli conflict and Iran after last Friday’s attacks.”
With regard to fighters in the Middle East, the EA report said all Israeli refineries “impractical” after Iran’s attacks. EA said the country has a relatively small refining, but it is a clear source of diesel. This means that it will need to resort to imports to replace the lost capacity.
As much as Iran said, it produces about 700,000 barrels of diesel. It is also a clear source of diesel, “but it may need to import in the event of any disturbances in the offer.”
The EA report also contains a scheme that shows a relatively narrow level of diesel inventory lists in Europe. (Numbers in millions of barrels).
Also, American stocks were much lower than the average of five and dozens for the second week in June, but as the demand for diesel also decreased, the amount of “the cover of days”-the size of the measured shares over the period in which consumption-in recent weeks can be covered.
