What is the Strait of Hormuz and what can happen to oil prices if Iran launches?

It is called The most important point of suffocation in the world – Iran holds power.

Washington strikes on Iran Fears that have been fueling that Iran can take revenge by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between Iran and Oman, which is consumed by about 20 percent of oil and gas global flows.

Oil prices Fell Monday, after Iran’s initial revenge does not seem to include the strait, but analysts have warned that closing the strategic maritime entrance to the Persian Gulf can disrupt the flow of oil and The global economy destroyedAt least temporarily.

“It will be very dangerous,” Kaja Callas, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy on Monday.

Burku Ozlik, an older research colleague at the Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said that Tehran decided to disrupt or close the strait, so he would be “risky.”

“It) can lead to global economic shock waves and contradict Online statement.

Where is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz extends between Oman and Iran.

The Persian Gulf straits with the Gulf of Oman and the Arab Sea. Its width is only 33 km in the narrowest point, but it is deep and happy enough to deal with the largest crude oil tankers in the world.

The lane of the shipping lane is only three kilometers in either direction.

How much oil passes through the strait?

About five total oil consumption in the world passes through the strait, according to what he said US Energy Information Management (Eia). Most of this oil goes to Asia. In 2024, China, India, Japan and South Korea were the best destinations for crude oil that is transmitted across the strait to Asia, and the environmental impact assessment is noted.

The environmental impact assessment in the analysis of last week indicated: “There are large amounts of oil flow through the strait, and the presence of a very few alternative options to transport the oil from the strait if closed.”

The oil that passes through the strait comes from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain, while the main supplies of liquefied natural gas come from Qatar.

Last year, 20.2 million barrels of crude, condensate and fuel poured through the strait daily, according to the measurement of the impact assessment.

The environmental impact evaluation said that although most of the suffocation points can be circumvented using other methods, which add to the time of transit, some, such as the hormonal strait, have no practical alternatives.

“Most of the folders roaming in the strait have no alternative way out of the area,” said environmental impact assessment.

What can happen to oil prices?

as Explain an environmental impact assessmentThe inability of the oil to cross the main suffocation point, even temporarily, “can create a significant delay in supply and increase shipping costs, which may increase global energy prices.”

“A oldest colleague in Washington, headquarters, Al -Khanq Middle East Institute, in Online statement.

Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts Brent crude oil prices can reach $ 110 a barrel if the hormonal strait is banned. Other analysts said prices may rise to 120 to $ 130 a barrel (at least temporarily).

“Given the importance of the strait in the global oil trade, the influence on oil will be very huge,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, a chief oil analyst at Global Data Company KPLER. Video online statement. “We will definitely see triple numbers.”

However, closing the strait will be the last resort of Iran.

Will Iran really close it?

On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament approved a measure to close the strait, according to Iranian Press TV, but any such step requires approval from the Supreme National Security Council.

Iran has threatened to close the strait in the past, but it has never done so. To do this, it would cut off his oil exports and harm his relations with his commercial partner, China and its Arab -exported oil neighbors.

Susan Malone, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institute, described the vote on Sunday by the Iranian parliament as “purely symbolic.”

“This step would paralyze its struck and weaken its fragile rapprochement, but the values ​​with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries along the Persian Gulf,” Malone said on the Brookings website on Brookings.

On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to encourage Iran to not close the Strait of Hormuz, noting China’s dependence on Iranian oil.

“It is an economic suicide for them if they do it,” Rubio said.

What can Iran do?

Iran outperforms a fleet of fast boats and thousands of marine mines as well Associated Press.

The main naval base in Iran is located in Bandar Abbas on the northern coast of the strait. The missiles can also be fired from the long Persian Gulf beach, as its allies did, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, in the Red Sea.

Earlier in the Monday, Shiptracking data showed several carriers away From the strait, although some have returned again, according to Reuters.

Conney, with The Middle East Institute pointed out that although the US strike adds more fluctuations to a situation that has already threatened oil and gas supplies, the strait “only represents only one potential strangulation of the major energy turmoil.”

“It is understood that the Strait of Hermoz is under a microscope,” Konelli said.

“But the increasing situation can result in unexpected disorders about the critical export infrastructure in the region, whether it will cause intentionally or otherwise.”