Will Iran start the new “carrier war”?

Mines in one of the most important strategic waterways in the world. Western missiles that make oil tankers that challenge the flight. The United States is on the brink of a direct war with Iran.

This is how the “carrier war” went in the 1980s, when it turned Iranian and Iraqi exclusives from the 33 km-length hormonal Strait of Hermoz.

Since the world prevails for Iran’s potential retaliation for US air strikes, many of the escalation of fear may lead to Tehran again targeting the strait, which is a point of difference through a quarter of a quarter of oil trade in the world and five natural gas exports.

In the eighties, during which Washington placed Kuwaiti tankers under American flags and sent 35 marine accompaniment, Iran and Iraq used sea, sea vascular mines, French-made shipping missiles and tricks made of tricks-an attempt to close the extended to their competing boxes. The United States and Iran have pushed close to the open conflict, which has achieved today.

On Sunday, many Iranian members in Parliament called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to US air strikes, despite a decision on this issue only by the country’s Supreme National Security Council. One of those familiar with one system said that any radical decisions – including closing the strait – were currently on the table.

However, in the event of a long conflict with the United States, analysts say that the Iranian navy, which has survived the recent Israeli and American air strikes, may threaten the repetition of the “carrier war”: closing the strait to shipping using relatively simple weapons.

These ranges from mines sitting on the sea floor – as Iraq uses it in the 1991 Gulf War to prevent amphibious landing and harass US Navy – to Limtet mines, which contain a few pounds of explosives associated with the ship used by Iran in the “carrier war”.

“A lot of factors, such as whether Iran, can put mines before the United States can bomb stocks and how to survive coastal rocket batteries to combat ship ships,” said Sayed Kochl, an expert in the Naval War at the Royal Services Institute in London. “Ultimately, the United States will collapse. But if the Iranians move first, this may be costly, take a long time, and may not be without victims.”

On the Iranian side, he may head any operation to close the strait by Abbas Golashahi, the background Admiral in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. According to a recent report before Strategic Research Foundation, French Thinking Tank.

In the event of the war, according to the report, it was assigned to close the strait with 2000 maritime mine, drones, fast boats and helicopters. “Iran has evolved … a large group of asymmetric (maritime) capabilities,” said Nick Child’s, an older colleague at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

“If it is used in a comprehensive campaign, this may cause a major disturbance for us and our other western marine units.”

The clearance of any Iranian mines will not be clear and direct. The United States focused on four Avenger category ships, and at least one combat ship in its maritime base in Manama, Bahrain.

Their mission is to remove the water of the strait, which Iran shares with Oman, the United Arab Emirates. During the carrier war, at least 50 oil tankers and frigate, Samuel Roberts, were damaged by the sea mines, prompting the US Navy to Iranian oil platforms.

Today, analysts are unlikely that American mine sweepers are unlikely to deal with the task.

“We do not only have the ability to compensate for mines to deal with a full strait of Hormuz,” said Ethan Conel, the research team in Taiwan, screen security and a modern author. Mine sweeten For the Arlington Center residing in the marine strategy. These Avenger category ships have been neglected, and “the only reason that has not been completely eliminated is that the navy did not find a capable alternative to service and work.”

He said: “The sweeping of mines was named in the Fifth Fleet (based in Bahrain) with some less reliable ships in the (American) navy.” “The navy prefers to put money elsewhere.” The Pentagon did not immediately respond to questions about his sweeping legend.

The United States has four Avenger mine slips in Japan, which can make a long journey to the Gulf. The UK also has some ships held in Bahrain, but two of them collided with the accident last year.

The mobile mine is carried out by air by MH-60s Knighthawk. But in 2016, the Pentagon said that if the plane, if it is equipped with current miniating techniques, it will not be “operational or operational” effective or operational suitable for mine preparation in fighting.

If Iran is taking advantage of the Strait of Hermoz, it is possible that it will cause a huge American military revenge. This would also close the main way to energy exports in Iran, as well as those in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. About 40 percent of crude oil imports in China pass through the strait.

US Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that the closure of the waterway “will be suicide … for the Iranians. Their entire economy passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Why do they do that?”

Those familiar with the Times regime in the Times said that Iran’s response to American strikes would be to intensify attacks on Israel, indicating that Tehran does not want a full war with Donald Trump.

“The Iranians should think: Do we want to bring all (the American) against us?” Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israeli military intelligence, said.

Even if the United States can reopen the strait, the damage to the oil markets will be long. Shipping and insurance rates also missiles. Unlike Houthi missile attacks in the Red Sea, which led global shipping companies to convert ships around a good hope, there is no alternative to Gulf oil supplies wandering in the Strait of Hormuz.

“In the sense that the Iranians can succeed strategically, by increasing prices, even if they could not close the hormones permanently on a permanent basis,” said Koshal.

Burku Ozlik of the Royal United Services Institute in London said the closure of the strait “could lead to global economic shock waves and face with the interests of Iran.”

“The next Tehran’s step may determine whether this war is expanding – or ends with uncomfortable (and) temporary self -control.”