Trump must resist the call of the sirens to change the regime in Iran

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The writer is the former US National Security Council and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

These will be many weeks – in fact – before we know whether the American strikes on Iran on Iran were “very successful”, as President Donald Trump announced hours after the bombs fell. The bombs have hit their goals and the strikes may return the Iranian nuclear program for several months or even years. But this is far from the guaranteed “success”.

The shortest questions in the range are whether the site of the underground enrichment in the Fordow has been really removed from the work and how much Iran store of very enriched uranium was already destroyed. Before the strikes, Iran had more than 400 kg of Heu, and it may have been held in relatively small packages and perhaps spent all over the country in underground locations. If a small part of that substance survives the attack, Iran today still has enough fissile materials for many nuclear bombs.

In the long run, the main issue will be the effect of strikes on Iranian nuclear aspirations. The best scenario will be that Iran realizes that the institution that lasted for decades to search for the option of nuclear weapons was catastrophic. But it is likely that Iranian leaders are likely to extract that only nuclear weapons can protect them and quickly resume the process of seeking to produce-as Saddam Hussein did after Israel bombed his first nuclear program in 1981. Inspections. Thus, nuclear activities can easily resume unless the United States and Israel are ready to bomb them again and again.

The key to making the task will be a long -term success is to avoid military escalation in the short term that can attract the United States to war and make the Iranian nuclear weapons program renewed more likely. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khawsouni, threatened the United States with “irreparable damage” if Washington enters the war, but in fact his options are very limited. The Iranian agent network has been deteriorated, and its long -range ballistic missile has been largely exhausted, and its own air defenses were destroyed, which left it very exposed to us or the Israeli counter attacks.

Iran still has many short -range missiles that can target American forces and bases in the region, mines and marine assets that can temporarily close the hormones, imposing pain on the West by raising oil prices. But most of these steps will definitely call for the strong American revenge that Trump threatened. The main goal of the system is to stick to power, which is why it sought a possible nuclear deterrent in the first place. Responding in a way that attracts the United States to war can threaten the system more than losing its nuclear program.

It is difficult to imagine that Iran has never responded to an American attack on its precious nuclear facilities. It may launch more ballistic missiles in Israel, and urges its agents in Yemen, Iraq and Syria to launch some missiles or drones towards the regional bases or Israeli targets, and may try to drown or arrest an oil tanker, to show seriousness and maintain some credibility with its fans. But if it is smart, this response will be calibrated in a designed manner to avoid a comprehensive escalation, just as it did last October when Israel made strikes on Iranian military sites, and Iran retreated and retreated, but chose not to escalate more because its options were very bad.

Of course, Iran may also choose the opposite strategy to intentionally kill Americans and attract the United States more, in the hope that the American appetite for another costly war in the Middle East will be limited, and that the Maga Trump base will decline in the opposition if the price in the blood and treasure starts to rise.

Trump himself has great interest in avoiding the last scenario and can help do this by sending the correct signals to Tehran. Some will advise him that the only way to eliminate the Iranian nuclear option is to eliminate the system, but this will be more way to withdraw the United States to war.

Instead, Trump must transfer the regime from the table and explain to Iranian leaders that they will pay a tremendous price for revenge on the United States, but this escalation and even cooperation is still possible. If the Iranian leadership believes that its “name” can now preserve their rule, and perhaps even pave the way to reduce sanctions on the road, they may only do this due to how bad their other options.

Trump’s strikes on Iran were a huge and unnecessary gamble. But converting them into effective success depends on obtaining important decisions in the next few days.