European NATO allies focus on reaching this week safely. But even if President Donald Trump is satisfied with the new pledges to intensify spending, anxiety grows about the American military presence in the region.
Only after the June 24-25 summit meeting in The Hague-where members of the NATO will be He pledged to spend 5 % of GDP Defense – Will the United States provide its military review, which will clarify the scope of what is likely to be significant discounts in Europe?
With about 80,000 American soldiers in Europe, the governments in the region have shown at least a reflection of the military height during the era of former President Joe Biden from about 20,000 soldiers.
The risks got much higher overnight after we struck nuclear sites in Iran with the risk that Trump was absorbed into a spiral conflict in the Middle East after he was an audio critic of US military participation abroad. His U-URN’s foreign policy will be a topic that is difficult to avoid in gathering, especially with the presence of NATO allies on Türkiye and major interest in the region.
The Europeans were kept in the darkness of the Trump administration plans. But officials in the region are preparing to prepare for a much larger withdrawal that can pose dangerous security risks, according to officials familiar with the discussions that refused to define as closed talks before the review.
Until in early June, no US official to NATO came to talk about reviewing the position of the American power, which caused anxiety among the allies that this could be done in a very short notice, according to a person familiar with the matter.
It is not clear whether the European countries have begun to plan to fill any potential gaps by the American forces. The withdrawal of 20,000 soldiers mentioned above can have a greater impact if other NATO allies follow the leadership of the United States and remove their forces from the east. The familiar person said that the concern about the deepest discounts that affect our bases in Germany and Italy is that they can encourage Russia to test Article 5 of collective defense of NATO with hybrid attacks across the alliance.
Since his return to the White House, Trump and his allies have warned European capitals that-despite the increasing threat of Russia-they need to take over their security as the United States has transformed its military and diplomatic focus into the India and the Pacific region.
Bloomberg contacted him, and NATO refused to respond to the questions, but pointed to a statement by NATO Secretary -General Mark Root in early June. When he was asked about a decrease in the United States from Europe, he said it was normal to mutate to Asia.
“I am not worried about it, but I am fully convinced that we will do this in a step -by -step approach,” said Root. “There will be no power gaps in Europe because of this.”
The White House referred questions to the Pentagon. The defense official replied: “The United States is constantly evaluating the position of power to ensure its compatibility with the strategic interests of America.”
This geopolitical transformation is likely to have severe consequences for the 32 -member coalition, which is a major challenge since the package against the Soviet power has become in the contracts that followed World War II. The European armies that have long relying on American solid energy will have to fill the gap with Washington’s return.
If the troop reduction is efficient, it will be more problematic for Europeans more than those that strike the critical assets and employees that Europe could not replace immediately, according to one European diplomat. The person said that the nature of the withdrawal will be more important than the numbers of forces.
The declaration of dramatic clouds is likely to lead to an immediate reaction from the eastern member states, as the proximity of Russia immediately requests publications from Western Europe allies.
The overall review of the American army, which Defense Minister Beit Higseth says, should focus on the threats facing the United States, to reflect the tendency to the dynamics of the global power, which brings widespread re -publication of weapons and forces.
But European diplomats have been refined at the time of the review, and it does not happen until after NATO signed Most of the targets of new ambitious weapons Since the Cold War – with member states consistent with the bill.
The most dramatic withdrawal of what was expected means that after reaching Trump’s increase in defensive spending, they may still have a heavy burden to respond to a rapidly growing Russian army.
“We will be negligent in not reviewing the position of strength everywhere, but we will be supposed to say,” America is giving up “or leaving Europe.” No, America is smart to monitor, plan and define the priorities and strength of the project to deter the conflict. ”
After the Trump administration has passed in providing European security guarantees to Ukraine, more American forces Vladimir Putin Russia could encourage, according to people familiar with the matter.
“The question is when the focus is more pressure on the Indian Pacific Ocean, what capabilities they need to think about moving,” said Matthew Saville, Rossi Military Science Director, a defense thinking center. “I do not get the impression that they decided after what this means for strength levels in specific phrases.”
Germany, the richest and most populated nation in Europe, puts itself to take itself on the largest share of the redistribution. Defense Secretary Boris Petsorius takes the initiative to build the army after the country has canceled constitutional debt restrictions when it comes to security. “The heavy lifting,” Berlin said.
Pistorius recently revealed a new battle tank brigade in Lithuania and said that the country is committed to increasing its armed forces Up to 60,000 soldiers. The army currently has about 182,000 soldiers in active service.
European governments are pushing Washington to clearly connect their plans and overcome any withdrawal from the forces to give them time to escalate their own forces.
“There are some capabilities, such as deep micro -strikes, as we Europeans need some time to catch up,” said Stefan Schulz, a senior German defense official. He called for any reduction in the United States in an organized manner, “so that the US reduction process corresponds to raising European capabilities.”
The perfect scenario will be an organized transformation within NATO towards the strongest Europe that will take about a decade.
A clearer scenario will include an American administration that is motivated by frustration with European progress and significantly reduce the presence of forces. Grand said that the “reasonable” scenario will be a reduction to about 65,000 American soldiers, and is identical to a low figure before the inclusion of Crimea Russia in 2014-a level that NATO can run.
“But if we go to that, we are entering an unknown water, a different world,” said Grand.
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