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With the president Donald Trump An unusual decision to attack three major Iranian/critical nuclear sites, two questions appear: First, how will the Iranian population’s reaction to the decision be? Second, will this hurt or help in the changing system chances?
Of course, we will not get answers to these questions immediately. But I think it is fair to say that history, in the non -distant past, provides a useful evidence of what could happen.
Although it is difficult at this stage to answer these questions with a high degree of certainty, there is a single historical analogy in which I deeply participated in this may provide visions.
More than 24 years ago, while working in Bill Clinton ManagementI was one of the main actors that advise the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the situation in Serbia. There, she led efforts on the ground to show the Serbian opposition that the president Slobodan Milosivic It can be hit.
At that time, many in the United States and Serbia believed that nearly 80 days of NATO and the 1999 Kosovo war had produced a gathering about the influence of science in favor of Milosevic.
However, the opinion polls that I conducted categorically showed the opposite.
The data revealed that despite the efforts made by the system to photograph Milosevic as strong and popular, it was very weak, with a classification of 70 % undoubted.
As it was Recognized In the Washington Post at the time, the strategic guidance that it provided based on opinion polls was developing a campaign that quickly overthrew a system, but a little thinking was very weak.
There are amazing similarities between the fall of Milosivik and the situation Raw system He finds himself a day.
In both, there are some who feel that foreign air strikes will enhance national feelings in favor of a regime that gives priority to dropping an aura of popularity even though it hates its citizens incredibly.
Moreover, in Serbia, we found that there is widespread anger towards the government, especially on the poor state of the economy. In Iran, there is similar dissatisfaction – if not more intense – than the chronic abuse of the regime in economic and national policy.
Sure, the polling data from inside Iran is limited, although Stasis, a company specialized in conducting systematic, systematic surveys in the country, has issued a reconnaissance Last October.
They found that approximately 8 in 10 (78 %) Iranians feel that government policies are responsible for economic conflicts in the country.
In addition, in a country of 90 million, where almost 60 % less than 30 years, and the same poll shows that more than three quarters (77 %) of Iranians believe that “Iranian youth do not see prosperity for their future in Iran.”
All this means that like Milosevic, the Iranian government appears to have strong popular support, but under the surface, very weak and weak.
A momentum to change the regime in Iran storms amid Israel’s struggle with Tehran
For many, the idea that Israel – especially the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Changing the regime in Iran can make it difficult to take seriously.
But a more detailed examination of the current situation, as well as Iran’s modern history, supports the idea that Netanyahu can be more accurate.
Looking at history: Since 2009, there have been 10 protest movements across the country, as millions of Iranians move to the streets against the government.
While there was a wide range of reasons for these protests – from fraud in the flagrant elections to the latest demonstrations, killing What is my faithful All of them confirm a widespread opposition to the current system.
In this same context, as I saw in Serbia, it reveals the large number of protests and its various causes from a large large opposition, which, under appropriate circumstances, can fill the system effectively.
To achieve this purpose, while we had to organize these movements actively SerbiaThese conditions are already clear in Iran, and on a much larger scale.
Netanyahu calls on Iranian citizens to seize a “opportunity” to change the system
Regardless of the dark future facing Iran’s youth, the repressive laws of the regime have transformed about 44 million female citizens almost half -population into second -class citizens with a little loss of height, as hundreds of thousands did during the 2022 amino protests.
This confirms the depth of hatred towards the regime, Iran International has I mentioned Receive messages expressing thanks to Netanyahu and the position of Jerusalem I mentioned The Iranian source told them, “This war has greatly strengthened and returned the new optimism” between the Iranians to change the regime.
The source of the job inside Iran continued, saying that “the talks on the capital (Tehran) focused in the last days of the regime and that they brought them to themselves.”
Outside Iran, the debate has already started.
On the one hand, there are leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as journalists such as former National Security Adviser John Bolton, and the head of the Yurton Seth Croes Institute.
These men – Bolton and Rostisi in the Wall Street Journal, and Netanyahu are talking to Fox News. Bret Bayer In other forums – this is the most suitable moment to change the regime in Iran since the revolution in 1979.
Given the deep tank of the anti -regime feelings between the Iranian people, the argument says that the best path of work is that Israel’s destruction of the army and the symbols of power will give the Iranians the courage to advance, against the government.
On the other side of the discussion, they are the same as the French president Emmanuel Macron. It is chased by efforts to change the failed regime in Iraq and Libya. Saying It will “lead to chaos”.
Some also Argue The actions of Israel can create the influence of “a gathering about science” and provokes nationalism among the Iranian people.
To be clear, while both sides have legitimate arguments, based on My experience in SerbiaI think Netanyahu and those on his side have a much stronger issue.
The Iranian government is weaker than ever before Israel actually destroyed the series of its full leadership and remains in full control of the Iranian sky.
Likewise, unlike Libya and Iraq, Iran has a good organization opposition, with a more firm feeling of national unity than either of them. Iraq Or Libya ever.
Combating, there is strong evidence that supports Israel’s belief that the Iranian regime can fall, especially given the extreme caution of Israel in targeting the symbols of the regime only in order to avoid neglecting nationalism.
Of course, there are risks to encouraging system change, and not at all content that the next system is the system that the West wants. It can lead to a more extreme government led by residue The Revolutionary Guards of the militants.
However, it is wrong to have a similar size to reject this opportunity to control. History has shown that when a persecuted, angry people find their government, their confidence and support – even by air power – the result should not be chaos, or the current government remains.
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It has, and it can again change a real system.
In both cases of Iran and Serbia, there was a large -scale bombing of the country and the civilians, with side effects on the civilian population. In the Serbian case, all the clear results were that they strengthened the Serbian people’s intention to rid themselves of an authoritarian dictator – Milosevic. In the Iranian case, if history is any evidence, it will weaken a already fragile system and we hope to provide an outlet for millions of Iranians who want more freedom and peace in their lives.
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