A merchant on the ground of the New York Stock Exchange during the first session of the new year on January 2, 2025, in New York City, the United States
Timothy a. Clary AFP | Gety pictures
The United States, which joins the war between Israel and Iran, may seem like a geopolitical flash point that will send markets. Instead, investors greatly ignore the escalation, as many strategists believe that the conflict is contained – and even the bullish of some risk assets.
By 9:30 am in London on Monday, World Index MSCIAnd that tracks more than a large and medium -sized companies than 23 markets, was only 0.1 % less.
European shares are early losses to trading in more stable lands, with Stoxx 600 Pan-European Rated After selling in the open. Futures in the United States Also risingWith future contracts associated with the S&P 500 that gains 0.2 %.
The origins of safe infiltration also witnessed a silent response. Return on the standard Note 10 years He got two basic points, while Gold spot Water 0.2 % for trading at about $ 3,359 an ounce. Safe adherence Swiss franc Lately seen an apartment against US dollarany He rose against several currencies on Monday morning.
In general, the market reactions after the American strikes were less aggressive, especially For a little more than a week when Israel fired air strikes against Iran.
“The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief of the nuclear threat to the region.
Although it should not be rejected by the seriousness of the latest developments, it is not seen as a systematic risk of global markets, other industry experts chanted.
On Saturday, the US President Donald Trump He said that US Attack nuclear Sites. Traders are now watching any possible counter measures from Iran after the American strikes on its nuclear facilities.
Iran’s potential closure of the strait
The Iranian Foreign Minister warned that his country had preserved “all options” to defend its sovereignty. According to the Iranian government media, the country’s parliament in the country also agreed to close the Strait of Hormuz, a central waterway for the global oil trade, with about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products that it passes every day.
“All this depends on how Iran responds,” said Peter Bokarar, chief investment official in the Blackley Financial Group. “If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires … this can be the end of the conflict and the markets will be fine,” CNBC told CNBC. Boockvar does not see that Iran will implement global oil supplies.
Marco Babic, the chief strategy in the Geomacro strategy, said that the worst market scenario will happen if Iran will conclude from the strait, which is unlikely.
He said: “If they do so, oil prices reach the north by $ 100, fear and panic take over their duties, the shares decreased by approximately 10 %, and investors retreated to safe havens.”
However, the markets are now defeated given the “limited tools” that Tehran has at its disposal of revenge, as Papic added.
The idea of closing the Hormuz waterway was a repeated speech from Iran, but it was never disposed of, as experts shed light as unlikely.
In 2018, Iran warned that it might prevent the Strait of Hormuz after the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal and restored sanctions. Similar threats were presented earlier in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials-including the then president of the will, Muhammad Risa Rahimi-said that the waterway can be closed if Western countries impose more sanctions on Iranian oil exports because of their nuclear activities.
“Tehran realizes that if it leads to the closing of the strait, the revenge of the United States will be fast, punitive and brutal,” Babic added.
In a similar context, Yardini Ed Yardini’s research founder said that the recent events did not shake his conviction in the American Taurus market.
“From a geopolitical point of view, we believe that Trump has just re -established the capabilities of the military deterrence of America, and thus increasing the credibility of the” peace through power “talisman, adding that it targets 6500 for S&P 500 by the end of 2025.
While predicting geopolitical developments in the Middle East is a “left exercise”, Yardini believes that the region is in a “radical transformation” now after Iranian nuclear facilities have been destroyed.
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