Oil prices can rise by 10 % after the attack on Iran – but do not be deceived, this may not last. “

The attack attracts the United States to offensive offensive operations against Iran and the escalation of the conflict that started a week and a half ago, when Israel launched its own campaign from the wide air strikes.

But although the global markets are expected to see an initial shock, there are other relief factors that can reduce the strike.

“Expect the oil to open with a sharp gap from 7 to 10 % with an increase in risk installments. But do not be deceived, this may not last,” Kpler was posted on X.

Based on the closing price of the crude Brent on Friday, a 10 % jump will send the global oil standard to nearly $ 85 a barrel.

KPLER pointed out that Iran’s ability to take revenge is restricted, saying that closing the hormone strait or attacks on the energy infrastructure belonging to the Cooperation Council the mixture – was postponed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to a large extent.

However, the geopolitical shock from America’s unprecedented attacks on Iran must lead to more crude supplies that reach the market and reduce any price mutations.

KPLER said that the early OPEC+ output for August from 411,000 barrels per day or more is likely to be increasing. This would add to a series of similar productive increases in recent months.

Hermoz straight is the highest mind for markets because it is a Critical suffocation point In the global energy trade. The equivalent of 21 % of global petroleum fluid consumption, or about 21 million barrels per day, flows across the narrow waterway.

On Sunday, the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the strait, although security officials had not been previously registered.

Such a closure may require the use of mines, patrol boats, aircraft, cruise missiles and diesel submarines, while the strait of the strait may take weeks or months.

Note last week, George Saravilus, President of FX Research in German bankIt is estimated that the worst status scenario of the complete disturbance of Iranian oil supplies and the closure of a hormone straightening may send oil prices above $ 120 a barrel.

But closing the strait would suffocate oil exports in Iran, more than 90 % of which goes to China, and destroys the Iranian economy.

As a result, closing the strait is among a A group of Iranian reprisals This would endanger his regime, which means that Tehran’s response may come elsewhere.

“Shipping disorders will be the story that must be seen,” Kepler said. Bay of the Middle East and Red sea An increasing threat from the face of the Houthi attacks, and the middle distillation, in particular, in particular, are preparing to benefit more in western Suez. “