India converts oil sources and threatens the hormone conflict; Imports from Russia, the United States in June

India increased oil imports from Russia and the United States in June, as it exceeded the joint purchases of suppliers in the traditional Middle East, PTI reported, noting data from the World Trade Analysis Company.

According to KPLER, Indian refineries are expected to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day (BPD) of Russian crude in June – the highest size in two years. This exceeds the total amount of crude imported from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which is expected to stand about 2 million barrels a day this month.

Raw oil imports in India from Russia amounted to 1.96 million barrels in May. Imports from the United States also rose, from 280,000 barrels in May to 439,000 barrels in June. Between 1 and 19 June, Russian shipments made up more than 35 % of the raw income in India. “The Indian volumes in June of Russia and the United States confirm this flexible mix,” said Sumit Retolia, KPLER’s leading research analyst.

“In the event that the conflict is deepened or there is any short -term disturbance in hormonal, the Russian barrels will rise in the session, providing both physical availability and price relief. India may incite more difficult to the United States, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit in higher shipping costs. India may also settle in strategic equations (coverage 9 days of imports) to bridges.”

India, the third largest oil importer in the world, exports approximately 40 % of crude and about half of its gas through the Strait of Hormuz, a major road in energy transport now under his threat due to Iranian warnings after Israeli military measures and the United States. Iran has threatened to close the strait – through which five oil permits in the world and most of the LNG passes – but KPLER believes that the full siege is unlikely.

“Although supplies are not affected yet, the ship’s activity indicates a decrease in raw loading operations from the Middle East in the coming days, as Ritoolia indicated that ship owners are hesitating to send empty tanks to the Gulf, with a decrease in the number of these vessels from 69 to 40, and the jugs associated with meg from the Fatwa from Oman.”

KPLER has a low possibility to completely close Hormones, citing Iran’s reliance on the strait for export. Ritolia said: “Iran’s dependence on hormonal via an island outside (which deals with 96 % of its oil exports) makes the opposite results of self -creation,” Ritolia said. Moreover, the largest agent in Iran, China, imports approximately 47 % of its savior in the sea from the Gulf, and any disturbance that will directly affect Chinese energy security.

Iran has also rebuilt relations with the Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which will be severely affected by any turmoil. The excitement of closing can reveal these diplomatic gains and revenge against the risks. “Any Iranian sea accumulation will be discovered in advance, which probably leads to an American preventive response,” Kepler added.

The shift in the resource strategy in India is part of a wider trend since 2022, when Western sanctions on Russia have made oil with an opponent. Russian oil share in the raw mixture in India has grown from less than 1 % to more than 40 % in more than two years. These flows, separate from hormonal, travel via the Suez Canal, the head of good hope, or the Pacific Ocean, which reduces exposure to risk.

According to Kpler, India imported about 1.9 million barrels per day from the Middle East countries between 1-19 June. This is expected to reach 2.0 million barrels per day for a whole month – it remains less than the May levels by 100,000 – 150,000 barrels per day.

(With PTI inputs)