After the baffled warmth of the Earth in 2023 and 2024, what can be 2025 in the store?

After 12 months in a row with temperatures of 1.5 ° C above an average of 1850-1900, the Earth’s temperature has now decreased-partially due to the end of a normal cycle.

According to the Earth’s Birkeli, which is the Non -profit climate analysis organization, the average global temperature was the average temperature 1.33 C is higher than average before industry In May, European Climate Change Service (CCCS) found that The monthly average was 1.40 ° C Above average before industry. (Climate agencies around the world use different ways to analyze global temperatures, and therefore the difference).

While this may seem good news, the truth is that the year 2025 is still on the right path to be one of the three best warmest ever, according to Zik Hosfath from Berkeley Earth.

“With the end of Ninho firmly, it is very unlikely that the year 2025 will set a new record, but I still think it is preferable to be the second capacity on the record, and it is certain that it is certainly three -year -old,” said Hosfath.

The phenomenon of Nino, which is natural temperatures, in an area of ​​the Pacific, which, along with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures, and began in mid -2023 and then its peak in 2024, which can explain some standard warmth that Climate scientists are confused.

What was particularly interesting in May is that the surface temperatures decreased slightly compared to the previous months. However, it was still the second warmer ever, after 2024.

Hausfather said that the sharp decline could have been some “internal contrast” that kept the surface temperatures high and perhaps last month was the result of the end of this contrast.

Hausfather said that something important you should also take into account when it comes to what we can expect in 2025 in standard records, winter is when we see the largest temperature anomalies. So that it can pay 2025 higher than we see now.

On the road to the direction of warming from 1.5 ° C

The ocean temperatures partially decreased due to the end of the Neenio, but remain near record levels. In May, the average ocean temperature was 0.99 ° C above an average of 1850-1900, according to the Earth’s Berkeli.

“At the present time, we see, or we have just seen a large thermal wave in the ocean COPERNICUS Climate Service (C3S).

“(Ocean temperatures) cooler than last year and the previous material, but they are warmer than any other years in the registry. So this is one of these things where it depends (whether) to see the glass half a full or half -empty. It is still a very warm environment.”

Although the Earth reached an average of 12 months at 1.5 degrees Celsius, this does not necessarily mean failure on the goal of the Paris Agreement of maintaining the phenomenon of global warming less than 1.5 degrees Celsius should happen over a longer period, although there is no specific time frame in the agreement. The climate is seen over long periods, usually Spread 20 or 30 years.

Carbon budget

but, A study published on Wednesday In the magazine “Magazine” Earth Sciences Data, I found that – if emissions persist at 2024 rates – we have only three years until we exhaust our carbon budget to maintain a temperature of 1.5 ° C.

“The high greenhouse gas emissions rapidly narrow the opportunity to reduce warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Yuri Rojelj, Professor of Climate Science and Politics at the Environmental Policy Center, the Empire College in London and the co -author of the report in a statement.

“The window of staying within 1.5 ° C is closed quickly. Grand warming already affects the lives of billions of people around the world.”

Although the threshold may be breached, climate scientists like to emphasize this All tenth of the degree matters.

But to keep warming less than 2 EGPs that the Paris Agreement initially set-there should be a concerted effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions significantly, as Antonio Generic, Secretary-General of the United Nations, Constantly.

Butenmpo said it hopes that the tools that we have today will help us at least in dealing with the growing temperature results.

“I am optimistic. I have always been optimistic, and my hair is, as you know, that there are many positives in this terrible situation, including the fact that we had not much information about our planet,” said Bontemo.

“We did not have much knowledge and tools to mix the consequences of what is happening now. I mean that the decision is our click, right?”