Israel says Iran is close to a nuclear weapon. Others doubt this

This time, Israel may be fears of Iran’s intention to build a really valid nuclear bomb. Or not. For the best or worse, US President Donald Trump will make a decision on the facts that must be accepted or rejected.

During most of nearly 20 years, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has raised international interests that his country was facing the threat of “nuclear annihilation” if Iran was able to build an atomic weapon.

Early in 1996I announce: “Time runs out.” Sixteen years later, in 2012, Netanyahu stood up to the United Nations with a cartoon -like drawing of a round bomb with a luminous tail, and urged the international community to stop Ayatollah in Iran before it is too late.

Finally, seven nights before, Netanyahu gave the matter to attack Iran directly, saying that the task is to direct the facilities and Iran institutions and scholars related to its nuclear program.

“If it does not stop, Iran can take steps to produce a weapon in a very short time,” Netanyahu said in A. Video statement Just his decision.

Israel’s full campaign for air strikes in and around Tehran has eliminated the higher level of the Iranian military leadership, and was attached to its nuclear capabilities and the killing of hundreds. Meanwhile, Iranian revenge strikes killed at least twenty civilians in Israel.

But the completion of the task of destroying the Iranian nuclear program may be outside the capabilities of Israel. With some of the main ingredients and facilities fortified up to 80 meters underground, weapons and heavy bombs may require only by the United States

Trump said – under severe pressure locally from many Republicans who want him to interfere, and perhaps an equal number he wants to stay out of the fighting – he will make a decision in the next two weeks on the path that must be taken, to give diplomacy with Iran more time.

At least a senior Israeli intelligence official says that the evidence for Iran’s ability and its intention to produce the weapon of mass destruction is indisputable.

“I think the last report is from International Atomic Energy Agency (International Atomic Agency) says that Iran has more than 400 kilograms of 60 percent of enriched uranium, which, if it enriches to 90+, is sufficient for 10 nuclear devices.

She said that the only distinguished issue is Iran’s willingness to build a bomb, given that such a step will certainly call for a devastating Israeli response.

“Our impression was that last year, Iran’s interest in going to additional miles and actually reaching nuclear nuclear power, if we compare its previous use,” Shane told CBC News.

She said since the attack on October 7, 2023 on Israel, and the Israeli attacks have been critically weakened by the main agents of the agent in Iran in Gaza, Lebanon – Hamas and Hezbollah. She said that this left Iran deeply weak, forcing the verse God to change Iran’s accounts about the necessity of building a nuclear weapon into the project’s strength.

Military enrichment?

Other Iranian observers in the West participate in the evaluation of Shine.

“There is absolutely no purpose at this level of nuclear enrichment and that enriched uranium stockpiles unlike the army,” said John Suarers, the former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service MI6. Talk to the BBC.

The Israeli authorities have suggested that their intelligence efforts also showed evidence of Iran’s intentions, exceeding what the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

Quoted from sources whose name has not been revealed, Wall Street Magazine Israeli agents have learned about Iran’s interest in developing and mastery of the reactions chain explosions, which are required for nuclear weapons.

Megan Sotklev, an analyst at the Sibelin Private Intelligence Company, said that in addition to the actual manufacturing of the nuclear system, it is also possible for Iranians to improve the missiles and missiles that could carry a bomb.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency does not monitor this,” she said. “Thus, the intelligence that Israel is likely to refer to is related to something from Iran that may take steps towards testing the susceptibility of some forms of the delivery system.”

Doubts are still in place

However, in the absence of this information that is publicly shared, doubts still continue about Iran’s intentions and capabilities.

Tolsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence in Trump, Tell Congress earlier this year American intelligence agencies did not believe that Iran had made a decision of its nuclear program.

The Washington -based Arms Control Association, a thinking reservoir that enhances weapons and diplomatic monitoring, statement Earlier this week, we condemn any American involvement in Israel’s war against Iran.

“There was no imminent threat that Iran was arming its nuclear program before the start of the Israeli attack,” she wrote.

The group argued that American intervention could have an opposite effect – enhancing Tehran’s torque and its leadership to arm its nuclear program, if it is not completely destroyed or rebuilt in the end.

While the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency spent last week that Iran was in violation of its obligations other than spreading due to the lack of disclosure, but Raphael Grossi said that the World Nuclear Agency had not witnessed any evidence that the enriched uranium in Iran was directed towards the army or the inaccurate.

“We cannot say that we are at the International Atomic Energy Agency for us with enough reliable elements that will indicate this,” he said.

In an interview with CBC News, the Iranian ambassador to Geneva repeated his country’s right to obtain a nuclear program and the development of enriched uranium from it.

“There is no evidence that Iran is moving towards military nuclear activities.” “Our nuclear activities are peaceful.”

Fuked uranium can also be used to produce medical isotopes or as fuel for nuclear power plants.

Israel’s nuclear program

It is widely believed that Israel has its nuclear capabilities on nuclear weapons for several decades, although the country’s official policy is deliberate ambiguity regarding the existence of such a program.

“It is widely recognized that Israel has a nuclear arsenal and that they also have a nuclear submarine, which gives them the ability to strike the second strike; the ability to respond to a nuclear weapon that is launched towards them.”

Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency guarantees did not accept some of its main nuclear activities. Weapons control center and non -spread Notes.

The Washington -based group indicates that “the lack of clarity surrounding the Israeli nuclear weapons program is a major obstacle to the creation of a area free of mass destruction in the Middle East.”

However, most countries – including the current and historical opponents of Israel – have generally accepted the country’s nuclear policies.

Sotclife said it believes that the treatment is different between Iran and Israel in their nuclear programs stems from a long time, Repeated data Iran’s leaders about their intention to destroy Israel, if they have the opportunity.

She said, “Iran has described itself as a threat to Israel – through its direct actions, but also by supporting agents to threaten Israel,” she said.

Iran’s leadership has expressed its strong support for the Palestinians who are freed from the Israeli occupation, and was a strong financial and military supporter in Hamas in Gaza.

However, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank has repeatedly said that Iran’s support for Hamas did not help the Palestinian issue, and it was not useful to establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

For both Trump and Netanyahu, the decision on intelligence and analysis with severe consequences – for Israel and beyond.

Girchon Baskin, a long -standing defender of peaceful coexistence between Arabs and Israelis and the fierce discount of Netanyahu, said he believed that most Israeli hope is Trump jumping in the war next to them.

“They are living this kind of arrogance that Israel can do everything, wherever they want, at any time.”

But he warned that internal policy can be shifted quickly against Netayahu and his efforts to reach its Iranian enemies, in the event of his harmful accounts in the opposite program of Iranian nuclear weapons.

“When we see more damage and more victims, there will be a mood in Israel about the justification of the war, and the need to continue this war. It is inevitable.”