Royal calls in Iran to change the regime – but a few of them listen

For decades, Reda Bahlafi lived in exile away from his homeland, where he searched for any sign of exploitation in the Iranian Islamic system that overthrew his father, the last Shah.

Mostly, he was a peripheral figure, accusing critics of not being credible and unable to form an organized opposition to the challenge of theocratic leaders who seized power in 1979. But now, with Israeli bombs, he finally rains the Islamic Republic and the regime held in a battle for its survival, and he is betting that his moment may finally reach.

“This is the first time in all these years that we see the stadium’s stadium even more to get a chance to change,” Pahlavi told the Financial Times.

Since Israel launched its war against Iran on Friday, it seized Baglvi, the highest opposition to the regime in exile, the moment of the Iranians inviting the “rise” and “restoring Iran.” In doing this, he repeated Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to an uprising in IranThat caused many Iranians to suspect that the Israeli Prime Minister is paying to change the regime.

But so far, there are no signs that any of their calls are adhered to. The disappointment of Iranian hope that has long extended with their leaders, at the present time, is replaced by their own tasks to survive and their anger towards them Israeli Bombs.

“Regardless of whether you are in support of the regime, the regime’s anti -regime” with a sense of nationalism, “said Valley Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins College for Advanced International Studies.

“There will be an account for the Islamic Republic; (Citizens) want to go, but they are not happy with invading, they do not want to destroy their lives. They are not interested in calling for weapons against the regime at the present time – this is not their case.”

For years, the regime was fighting general irony with anger between the ambitious population who are disappointed with decades of repressive rule, isolation and economic difficulties. The frustration has exploded in the streets with the increase in the frequency during the past two decades.

Millions of people protested the disputed elections in 2009, while it became known as the “Green Movement”. Three years ago, young women and men demonstrated throughout Iran I don’t have a secretary in the police seizure after being arrested for not wearing it properly.

But on every occasion, putting the system brutally, while sometimes made small concessions in an attempt to reduce local pressure.

All the time, no organized internal opposition was able to mobilize.

The authorities inhaled any hints from the organized opposition, prison activists, critics, and former loyalists in the regime who turned against the regime.

Pahlavi, who has not returned to Iran since 1978 when he left 17 years old, sought to study in America, to use the void to demand the talk about the regime’s opponents from its base in the United States. He now said he was presenting himself a “transitional leader” of a democratic alternative to the republic.

However, many Iranian experts are very skeptical.

Analysts say Pahlavi has some support in Iran, as he took advantage of frustration with regime and nostalgia to the era before the revolution. But the extent of this support is negotiable, and the Iranian diaspora has long been long before the internal divisions and accusations of being inappropriate.

Pahlavi and others have seen in the exile opposition a similar moment to pressure to change the regime with the protests of “women, life, freedom” in the wake of the death of Amini. However, the diaspora quickly fell into chaos, as the leading figures turned on each other, the protests were crushed and the exile opposition returned to political margins.

The bombing of Israel pursues a major threat today, but experts said that the possibilities are still, at the present time, against the divided opposition.

“The launch of a revolution or a change in the regime without deploying American forces requires Iran’s rise and competition with the United States in the Middle East.

“You need to generalize an acceptable vision for the future, and you should be able to form a wide national alliance against the current system. I have seen little evidence of this.”

He added that the assault of Israel has expanded from the conflict in the opposition: “Some oppose this, while many supporters of Mr. Bahlvi expressed support.”

“There are many people in Iran who also oppose the Islamic Republic and pushed their lives, with their lives,” said Melanie, a professor at the University of South Florida. “It is difficult for me to see how they will disappear and allow someone else to do and control.”

Analysts say the additional risks to Pahlavi, which Netanyahu met during its visit to Israel in 2023, is that he will be seen as cooperating with Iran’s aggressor, which leads to the erosion of the support he provides in the Republic.

The 64 -year -old insisted that the Iranians are “smart enough” to know that this is not “Israel’s war with Iran.”

“The only traitor here is really raw me,” he said.

Mharzad Boroger, an Iranian-American academic based in the United States, said even in a scenario where he defeated Israel and the United States-if it interferes-Iran and sits to put Balfafi in power, the story will not end there.

“Given the degree of political polarization in the country … many will see it as a doll from Israelis and Americans.”

The most organized opposition is the Mujahideen-E-Creator, a negative group with support in the United States of Iranian falcons such as veteran Republican John Bolton. During the eighties of the last century, Iraq supported its war with Iran, and often accusing it of the Islamic regime of providing protests, instability and cooperation with Israel.

But analysts say that the armed movement, which is often described as worship, is mobilized and feared in Iran, where it is accused of killing officials and civilians. They say that you are unlikely to get any popular support.

“They can send their people to cause some harm in the country,” said Borogeri. “But the main question is: What is the force that has this support and the country’s organizational network to be able to do anything effective?”

As a result, analysts say there is no clear alternative to the republic, inside or outside Iran. But what might change the local scene is splits from within the system, said Borogery, including the strong army and revolutionary guards.

“The main point (is) … What is the state’s pain threshold and its supporters? At what point will we see a split, for example, from the ranks of (guards)?” Borogery said. “From this moment, we don’t really see any dangerous signs of the elite split.”

However, the Republic is in an unknown area, where Israeli strikes destroy the highest ranks of its army, and the intelligence network that was depth in depth and Netanyahu has not excluded the assassination of my crude.

Nasr said that Iran could have a “Yeltsin” moment, referring to Boris Yeltsin, who hastened the end of the Soviet Union and became the first elected president of Russia.

He said: “What people will be attracted to is the person who will restart lights, who will attend the system and prove relations with the outside.” “This would gather bureaucracy.”

The great fear of the Iranians would be the seizure of the 90 million multi -ethnic nation, after they witnessed the massacre in neighboring Iraq in the wake of the United States ’invasion of the United States, which led to the prolongation of the dictator Saddam Hussein, as well as the civil wars that followed the 2011 in Seria and Real.

Melanie said that these conflicts, as well as the experience of the Iranians of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, made the middle class – the main driver of change – caution against any payment to change the system.

He said: “They have become more frequent in participation unless they are given a degree of assertion that what will replace the Islamic Republic will be better than what we have today.”