Rawd on federal reserve mind

In US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell A press conference after preparationThe subject of definitions – specifically, its effect on prices – was a frequent topic.

Powell said: “Whoever knows that he expects a meaningful increase in inflation in the coming months of customs tariffs because someone must pay the definition fees.” “Some of them will fall on the final consumer.”

It is recognized that the recent economic data was optimistic, indicating that the American economy was able to escape the customs tariff – often safely.

In May, better than expected 139,000 jobs have been added The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 %. The consumer feeling in early June He was more optimistic than expected, according to the Michigan University survey. And most importantly, Inflation in May – Based on the consumer price index – only 0.1 % rose for this month, less than the ability.

But this series of positive data may be forced to thank the slow process in which definitions move through the economy.

“It takes some time until the customs tariff requires its way through the distribution chain on the final consumer. It is a good example that the goods that are sold to retailers today were imported several months ago before the definitions were imposed. So we started to see some effects, and we expect to see more of them in the coming months.”

Although Federal Reserve officials are, at the present time, “do not see signs” to weaken the American economy, Powell acknowledged that growth will slow down “in the end.” In other words, the recession – the poisonous mixture of high prices and slower growth – can be a possibility in the coming months.

The song “I got the summer in my mind“Virus went in 2022.” I got a recession in my mind, “The FBI’s ear worm can be – the market friendly this summer.

The US Central Bank holds prices, sees two reductions
The US Federal Reserve kept on Wednesday Infinite interest rates range between 4.25 % -4.5 %Where it has been since December. In addition to the average decision, the committee indicated, through the “DOT plot”, which was closely seen, that two pieces by the end of 2025 are still on the table. Earlier on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that the FBI’s funds should be less than 2 percentage points, and again, President Jerome Powell criticized, He described “stupid”.

Long -distance feeding inflation and reduction expectations
Inflation in the United States, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, will rise to more than 3 % in 2025, according to the updated Federal Reserve expectations. The central bank in March was expected to reach 2.8 %. PCE came in Only 2.1 % in April. The Federal Reserve also believes that economic growth slows down to 1.4 % this year, a decrease from a previous estimate of 1.7 %. Completely, both predictions indicate Early recession signs.

Markets and oil prices were flat in us
American stocks Hover around the flat line on Wednesday. the S & P 500 Slipping 0.03 %, and Dow Jon’s industrial average Close 0.1 % down, however Nasdak It increased by 0.13 %. Oil prices, likewise, did not change a little. Regional Europe Stoxx 600 index It lost 0.36 %. the FTSE 100However, it increased by 0.11 % as the annual inflation data showed in the United Kingdom in 3.4 % expected in May.

Trump says he did not decide Iran’s strikes
For the second time in two days, Trump on Wednesday The National Security Team met at the White House Amid the conflict of Israel, Iran. The closed doors gathering occurred as Trump insisted that he had not yet decided whether he would ask for an American strike on Iran. On the same day, the US ambassador to Israel told Mike Hakapi that evacuation trips and departures of the cruise ship had been resulted in American citizens who were seeking to leave Israel.

(Pro) “Deep Effect” on the oil market: Jpmorgan
The current jump in oil prices due to the mysterious conflict in the Middle East may not shock long -term prices, according to the historical data that was analyzed by Jpmorgan. Changing the regime in Iran resulting from military or Israeli action, however, it can be.Deep effect“In the global oil market, the bank said.

These are the thorny points that hold a commercial deal for the United States of America

The American and European Union is running out of time to conclude a deal on commercial tariffs – and analysts say that many major sticks may make the agreement impossible.

The negotiations were slow because both the United States and the European Union temporarily cut their duties to each other until July 9. If a deal is not agreed upon by that time, Fullly mutual import tariff From 50 % on European Union commodities, and the mass Wide -ranging measures It is appointed to enter into force.

“We are talking, but I do not feel that they are presenting a fair deal,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday.

So what carries things between the two sides, which had a relationship He deserves 1.68 trillion euros ($ 1.93 trillion) in 2024?