Investor “Grand Qusayr” Steve Isman: The trade war will lead to global recession

Former Neubleger Berman Managing Director – who was expected and successfully absorbed from the 2008 stock market accident, which was the basis for Michael Lewis’s book (and later, 2015 movie) The big short– Rad in a CNBC interview On Tuesday, the US economy and markets will flourish if the Trump administration is able to facilitate Truces with the various countries on which definitions are imposed. But if it doesn’t happen, “opportunities, we go to a global recession.”

“I think the customs tariff and the possibility of a commercial war are in fact the only danger to the market at the present time,” said Isman. “It is completely dual, and I have no way to bother.”

Trump’s tariff decisions have shook consumers – who have Decrease Upon spending as a result of fees – and investors, who, such as Isman, see the tariff as a threat to the global economy. A Bank of America The survey of the director of the global fund published this week found that 47 % of the 222 fund managers who were included in the survey said they believed that the global recession as a result of a commercial war was the largest “tail risk” of the markets.

Commercial deals, as with the United Kingdom and A temporary truce with ChinaThese concerns were reduced. Jpmorgan Research It reduced the possibility Among the United States and the world, from 60 % to 40 % at the end of May, indicating a decrease in commercial tensions due to the reduction of Chinese tariffs. However, the United States has not yet resolved its commercial issues with the European Union before decisive July 9 date.

Eisman drew the similarities between the rocky commercial environment and the honor of the First World War, which is likely to refer to a A series of treaties False in the decades before the war designed to settle the regional skirmishes that, in fact, created huge alliances, and in the end opposition.

He said: “No one wants the First World War, however, because of all mutual treaties that existed between countries, it ended in one way or another.” “I don’t think anyone wants a commercial war, but it is definitely possible.”

Not only China

Although commercial talks with China have taken the lead center, eissan argued that the process of consolidating trade relations with Europe is “more interesting”, given the European Union’s concerns with regulations, as well as VAT tax (VAT). With 27 member states, the European Union must balance countless agendas, making a possible business deal.

“Negotiating with Europe is similar to the herd cat’s attempt to look at the way they are organizing,” Ismann said.

Trump claimed that the European Union was It was created to the “nail” The United States, which threatens to impose, and then stopped later, a 50 % tariff for the union. like Part of the negotiationsThe administration tried to pressure the European Union to alleviate the technical regulations that it claims preventing the growth of American companies. Trump also opposes VAT, a sales tax that accumulates at every stage in the supply chain of the product. His president Interpretation of value -added tax As another commercial barrier, on the pretext that the tax puts unjustified financial pressure on American companies trying to export to Europe.

Trump noted that the United States is not yet satisfied with the provisions of the agreement, as it told reporters on Tuesday, “We are talking, but I do not feel that they are presenting a fair deal yet.”

Wilber Ross, former Trump Wilber Ross, warned that after successful negotiations with China and the United Kingdom, the Trump administration may become confident in negotiations with the European Union, prompting European allies.

“One of the fear is that if our government feels a great degree of progress, they may overcome the hand and reach difficult levels – it may be impossible – for other countries to surrender.” He said luck Last week.

He added: “This will be difficult, but the goal of our country must be helping to make European countries stronger and keep them close.”