Here is the Donald Trump’s Endgame game in Iran

The United States is now appearing on the threshold of a rare development that can be imagined a few days ago: direct participation in Iran’s bombing.

President Donald Trump has begun to drop something else: a hint after an unbroken hint that the United States may help Israel to attack unlimited goals in its struggle with Iran.

People were asked to escape from the Iranian capital; Publishing the demand for all points on social media, “unconditional surrender”; He said he knows where the supreme leader hides but will not kill him – at the present time.

This implicit threat is clear-that the United States can send its bombers and ponds to hide to rid the most secret nuclear site in Iran, the mountain attachment in Ford, to the deadline of forgetfulness.

There is also a long -term threat that this conflict can continue to escalate until it risk survival, both literal and photographic, for the Iranian regime.

So what does Trump do?

One idea came in an unusually long tweet by his vice president. JD Vance Specifically mentioned He said that uranium enrichment: Iran can end Iran in an easy way, or in the difficult way, and if the matter ends until the American army is helping.

The prevailing consensus among experts interviewed by CBC News is that the current preferred option in Washington is not involved.

This plan A, in the opinion of an old warrior at the CIA for a period of 34 years, spent a decade as a national intelligence director for Iran in the office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“It is clear that the Trump administration prefers to see a position in which Israel’s attacks are forced to return to negotiations with serious privileges-driven by the desire to save the Islamic Republic,” said Norman Roll, a senior consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“However, it was not yet clear whether Iran’s leaders believed that their situation is very comfortable. They should do so.”

Plan B: More escalation

This is why the American government is actively seeking to instill a sense of despair in Tehran, which increased pressure on Tuesday.

Camran Buchari expected that Israel will increase vital infrastructure, such as communications, oil supplies and water.

It also targets the militant factions of the Iranian security establishment – Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij Transforming the balance of power into Less ideological, before the revolution army.

Bukhari, a professor at Georgetown University and a great director of security and prosperity in Washington, said, The new institute of strategy and politics.

He said that Washington’s favorite plan is that Iran ends with enriching uranium and opened the entire Ford website for international monitoring. Bokhari said this did not happen, as the United States is destroying Fordo, as the Israelis continue to target the Iranian leadership.

“The last resort-this is what it is,” said about the use of B-2 aircraft to shoot down Huge penetrate bombs ammunition On an underground attachment, heavily fortified.

Change the risk system

He said that the current message to Iran is: “We are not trying to bring down your regime. We do not want chaos in your country.” But if this continues, everything is possible.

This is the plan, at least.

The problem with the plans imposed by foreigners in the Middle East is that they have a busy record of explosion from time to time to an irreplaceable chaos.

Ali Fayez said that the Iranian leadership may see its severe, deteriorating nuclear program to build the bomb with any assets it left.

The project manager for Iran in the International Crisis Group said that he could not imagine that the Iranians are making great concessions during their bombing. It sets a brutal precedent, an additional bombing, to achieve additional targets, whether the regime changes or ends the Iranian missile program.

Fayez said: “The regime may choose in Tehran, which believes that the choice was made by surrender or fighting the latter, and expanding the conflict by targeting American interests, origins and allies.”

He said that even if the Islamic regime collapses, there is no guarantee that Iran will take: a quick transition like Syria in 2024, or a deadly and disturbing struggle for stability in the heart of a volatile region, or Libya after 2011 or Iraq after 2003.

“This will not be the first time that the gains of the United States and its allies end in the end,” Fayez said.

How the United States has reached here

Trump blames what he calls the original sin: withdrawal from Obama Weir Iran is a deal. This agreement allowed some enrichment, but not enough to build a bomb.

It is not clear whether Iran was daysOr MonthsOr Years Away from a bomb. This depends on who you ask. The Israelis insisted that he was imminent; American intelligence is less than that.

One of the potential sources of confusion is the improvement in the centrifuge. The most recent generations such as IR-7, IR-8 and IR-9, It is said being It was tested By Iran, there are dozens of times more efficient in enriching uranium than versions that are used a few years ago.

At the same time, in a little pursuit appreciationUpon a decade, US intelligence officials have estimated that within a decade, Iran may have 60 ballistic missiles between the continents capable of hitting the continental United States.

It goes without saying that American -Iranian relations were risky for decades. Only last year, the US Department of Justice Accuse With planning to kill Trump on behalf of Iranian officials. the Fees He was During Biden Administration.

Three Iranian analysts who were interviewed in this story agreed that Trump has legally wanted to negotiate a new nuclear deal in recent months. They agreed that the talks were flooded. One of them said it was an extension until we call them negotiations – similar to meetings to determine the basic rules of negotiations. Trump grew in frustration.

They also agreed that Trump had a transformation in the situation. For several months, he actively pushed Israel’s desire to strike Iran, then stopped.

Where analysts differ whether Trump has explicitly encouraged him.

After all, Last week only He said he does not want to attack Israel, because he is still hoping to do diplomacy. Now he chants the Israelis.

Analysts differ on Trump’s approach

Vaez of the International Crisis Group said it was suspected of having a misunderstanding element. The president told his Israeli counterpart, in April and May, that he was enthusiastic. Then in June, he was frustrated by the pace of the conversations. He said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Bokhari does not share this opinion. He believes that the American president was more clear and more honest than that.

He said that Trump concluded that the Iranians were conducting matters, which accumulated it, in the belief that he was eliminating severe consequences in the absence of a deal.

Bokhari said Trump wanted to reaffirm the leverage, without directly participating in any attack, because he promised the Maga base to avoid foreign wars.

“But you have Israel ready to do this,” he said. (Trump) said, “Well, and let’s see what you can do. The idea was, “Well, if (Iran) is not ready to speak, if you are not ready to settle, are you now ready to speak after beating?” … This strategy plays itself. “

Trump definitely put some circumstances. For example, US officials tell journalists that the American President Israel plan To kill the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khawni.

(Trump had said to Israel), “Let’s agree on what you will strike.” This is not open. “How long do you need?”

“You know, all the logistical things that need to be discovered. The target groups, non -navigation areas, etc.”.

Now Trump warns: This may get worse.