The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the rates as it is, but giving the markets to move the markets. What do you expect

Federal reserve officials get their outlook this week on the future interest rate path, in addition to the impact that will cause definitions and Middle East unrest on the economy.

Although any instant movement on interest rates seems unlikely, the policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, will contain important signals that can still transport markets.

Among the biggest things to see are whether members of the Federal Open Market Committee are adhering to their previous expectations for price discounts this year, and how they see inflation, and any reaction from the president Jerome Powell To what became a concerted campaign for the White House for the ease of monetary policy.

“The main message of the Federal Reserve at the June meeting is that it remains comfortable in the waiting and vision mode,” Editia Bahvi, who is under Bank of America, said in a memorandum. Bofa believes that the Federal Reserve will not reduce this year, but it will leave the possibility of one reduction. “Investors should focus on Powell’s taking on the softening employment data, modern benign inflation and the constant risk of inflation driven by customs tariffs.”

The “DOT” network will be for the committee for the expenses of individual members’ price expectations and the center for investors.

In the last update in March, the committee pointed to the equivalent of the percentage of the percentage points for this year, which is in line with the current market prices. However, this was a close invitation, and only participants changing their approach will swing the Mediterranean into one pieces.

The meeting comes against the complex geopolitical background that has the influence of President Donald Trump’s tariff on inflation is little so far, but not clear in the future. At the same time, Trump and other administration officials They ascended their request From the Federal Reserve to low rates.

Moreover, Israel’s conflict Iran It threatens to destabilize the image of global energy, and to provide another variable through which politics can be mobilized.

“We expect President Powell to repeat his message from the press conference in May,” Bahaf said. “Politics is in a good place and there is no hurry to dispose of the federal reserve.”

However, the scene can change quickly.

While the unemployment rate is still low at 4.2 %, The non -cultivated salary report may be Show a continuation if it is gradual Sleeping in the labor market. More Modern inflation data He also pointed out that the customs tariff did little to affect the prices at least on the Macro scale, adding another incentive to think at least to mitigate.

“We are in a world that is not experienced,” said Robert Kaplan, former Federal Reserve Chairman, Dallas Robert Kaplan, in an interview with CNBC last week. “If it is not about these potential definitions that will flow and circulate, I think the federal reserve will be on his front foot looking to cut prices.”

While things stand at the meeting, the markets are pricing in the next pieces in September, which will be amazing the first anniversary of aggression. Reducing the semi -percentage percentage FOMC was placed amid concerns about the labor market. The committee added two additional movements to a quarter of a quarter by the end of the year and have since been suspended.

In the current climate, commercial tensions have shrunk somewhat, inflation was low, and difficult data showed only limited signs of softening, “David Marsel, Goldman Sach expert wrote.

Goldman believes that the Federal Reserve is committed to its bilateral expectations, but the company’s economists eventually expect only one vision.

“We are confident that we are still on the right path of final price discounts because regardless of the customs tariff, the inflation news was already soft to some extent. While the previous discounts are possible, the effects of the summer peak tariff on monthly inflation publications will be very new so that FOC cannot pick up before December.”

Officials will also update their expectations, inflation and growth of total local products.

Goldman believes that FOMC takes inflation expectations to 3 % for all 2024, 0.2 Celsius above March. The company also sees a slight decrease in gross domestic product growth to 1.5 % of 1.7 % and a higher sign in the unemployment rate to 4.5 %.

Krishna Jh, head of the Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI, said that officials will then use the summer to see the data and the prize from there, which will do later in the year.

Joe said in a note: “We believe that FOC will maintain the waiting and vision situation at its meeting on Wednesday, which ensures that he still expects a lot to learn about advanced expectations during the next few months, and continues to refer to September as a next decision -making point.”