Global oil supplies expectations outperform this year despite the Middle East war

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The International Energy Agency predicted that global oil supplies will greatly outperform the demand this year, even with the rise in the escalating conflict in the Middle East, from fears of turmoil.

Global oil production is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 104.9 million barrels oil In its annual report, the International Energy Advisory Authority said that stocks throughout the year.

“In the absence of a major disorder, the oil markets appear in 2025 well equipped,” said IEA.

The increase in the offer is expected to come from both OPEC+ Cartel, which is in the process of reversing a series of discounts in production, and from non -OPEC+ producers, which will add average 1.4 million barrels/D throughout the year.

At the same time, weak consumption in China and the United States will restrict global demand, which expected to grow by 720,000 barrels this year, less than a previous expected increase of 740,000 barrels/d.

With the high demand, the amount of oil in the world has increased by 1 million barrels/D since February, and a “huge” barrel of 93 million barrels in May alone. However, the total stock is less than 90 million barrels less than last year.

the IEA He warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran was “great geopolitical risks to the security of oil supplies”, but he added that there was no impact on Iranian oil flows at the time of writing this report.

Iran has partially suspended production in the largest natural gas field in the world, a prominent south, after an Israeli air strike on the weekend, but it is still unclear whether production was affected.

He added that the Charran oil warehouse and a filter were targeted near Tehran, but no damage was reported.

In a separate report on expectations until 2030, IEA expects that oil supplies will continue to overcome demand over the next five years. The global demand for oil is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels/D between 2024 and 2030, reaching a “plateau” from 105.5 million by the end of the contract.

He said that the supply will rise much faster, with its global production capacity increasing by more than 5 colors from B/D to 114.7 million b/d.

She said that the slowdown in the growth of oil demand will be moved in a large part by China, as IEA now expects to reach its peak in 2027, after an increase in electric car sales and the continued decline in high -speed railways and gas truck transport points.

Expectations are in line with the predictions made by the largest oil companies in China, but it is the first time that the International Energy Agency has set a fixed history of the Chinese demand.