It fights the Iranian regime for survival

After the newly created Iranian Islamic leadership was withdrawn to the war by the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 1980, a killer, in the words of the Supreme Commander, with “empty hands”.

For the leaders of the young Republic who lead it ideologically, they are determined to export their vision of Islamic radicalism, it was a brutal account: the Iranian traditional army was in a state of chaos and faced an enemy supported by regional and Western powers.

Years later, these leaders themselves admitted that the isolated system had been reduced to circumventing the few cases that had relationships with the basic supplies, such as shaving wires.

yet Iran He fought for eight years despite the amazing human cost, before Ayatollah Rohla Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, reluctantly to the ceasefire with Iraq – a decision he described as “drinking from the poison cup.”

Now Iran faces the most threat since that war, where the republic is bombed IsraelWhich includes one of the most advanced armies in the world, which is filled with American equipment, which penetrated intelligence agencies deeply within the Republic.

Once again, the risks achieved by the Iranian regime, with Khalifa Khomeini, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, who is 86 years old, became in the face of the strict test of his four decades.

“It is the most important raw moment. He had many transformations and turns since he became a pioneer in 1989, but this takes the cake,” said Sanam Facille, the Middle East director at Chatham House. “His priority is the regime’s survival – converting tables to the best that Iran can. They see themselves David against Goliath, so the ability to survive is a victory for them.”

Within a few days, Israel cut off the head of the Iranian army’s high command, hit its main nuclear sites, and bombed the main energy infrastructure and the implanted fear throughout the country, as drones and swarms of combat aircraft were sorties throughout the Republic, apparently uncomfortable. More than 200 Iranian civilians were killed, according to the Iranian Ministry of Health.

Intelligence agencies have been humiliated in the regime and all air defenses, except to spend, leaving Tehran at the mercy of the Israeli Air Force, which announced on Monday the “full operational control” of the sky over the capital.

Israel claimed that it struck the headquarters of the Jerusalem force, the frightening international arm of the Revolutionary Guards, and took dozens of bombers needed to launch the Iranian missile arsenal.

Analysts say that Iran, the most prominent of which is in decades, even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the war on Friday, limited options to repel its arc enemy.

Iran is also a society completely different from a deadly society in order to remain against Iraq.

Revolutionary enthusiasm in the eighties does not link the population, and the unconditional support of the state is far from a guarantee. Instead, the regime is in war at a time of unprecedented general obesity, where young residents wear decades of repressive rule, and they suffocate US sanctions and economic difficulties.

But since Israeli bombs began to decline, many Iranians – including critics of the regime – have crossed the national security concerns or demanding political freedom.

Some Iranians explicitly ask about the reason for the republic invested many of the state resources in its nuclear program and has not yet done its weapon to deter external attacks – even with its nuclear progress at the pretext of Netanyahu to attack.

However, many Western analysts and diplomats believe that the regime’s survival will not be determined by Israeli bombs, but through the dynamics within the same system, with a warning that it is very early to predict its collapse.

At the present time, the absence of a reliable option to replace the regime remains the strongest deterrent to protect Iran’s rulers.

“There is no applicable alternative – either inside or outside Iran – for the current regime, which makes internal reform the only realistic path forward,” said Muhammad Atranafar, a reformist politician and a former political prisoner.

There is no organized political opposition in Iran, and the opposition in exile is unpopular within the Republic, such as the Islamic leadership, says experts.

“Even internally within the system, they may see benefit in the rows of closure and adhere to each other instead of rotating against each other,” said Ali Fayez, an expert in Iran in the group of thought crises.

Referring to the US -led wars against Saddam, he added: “I think this is more than Iraq 1991 from Iraq 2003, meaning that the regime will be wrapped, but I really doubt that this will collapse.”

But Vaez said the system has good options to try to move through conflict and reduce damage. Given the absence of a clear exit slope, Vaez said that “the only option” for Iran is to continue the advanced strikes in the hope that the abandoned energy markets will lead to US President Donald Trump to “pull the plug” against Israel.

After the experiences of the Iraq war-which are still greatly outperforming the regime’s psyche-Iran focused on manufacturing local missiles and drones, and on the training and regional militants who can use it against its prepared enemies in the unprecedented war.

But within 20 months since the Hamas attack on October 7, Israel has dealt with a series of devastating strikes against the main agent in Tehran, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and destroyed many Iranian air defenses during two rounds of government strikes of the republic last year.

Despite the unequal difficulties, the leadership of Iran, which is often described as a mixture of radical and pragmatic ideology, pledges to match the fire with the fire, believing that Netanyahu’s final goal, with the support of the United States, is the complete destruction of the regime.

But with the alive survival instincts of the regime, Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi also hinted that Tehran would be ready to accept a diplomatic decision of the crisis at some turn.

While praising the role of the armed forces, he said on Sunday that Tehran would seek to “translate the results of these courageous works into peace in the diplomatic scene.”

Said Lilis, a Tehran -based analyst, said that Khamana, the final decision -making, “signed between two very difficult options.” Iran can agree to an agreement with the United States to abandon its nuclear program, “which will be surrender”, or to continue fighting, “which is not a realistic option.”

He said: “This time, we are in a war that NATO launched against Iran through Israel to force the Islamic Republic to surrender,” referring to Iranian doubts that Israel’s attack is supported by the United States and European.

Iran initially amazed the surprise and preliminary strikes of Israel, which participated in about 200 Israeli war aircraft, killing at least 17 senior leaders of the Revolutionary Guards – the strongest power of the republic that would lead any response to the external aggression.

However, the old veterans in the Iran -Iraq war in the regime are less than 24 hours, as they fired a first wave of ballistic missiles that not only sent a message to Israel, but also the Iranians also showed that the army had not collapsed.

In the days after this, Iran followed this with more missile weeds. At least one was hit near the Israeli defense headquarters in the heart of Tel Aviv, hitting the last colander complex in Haifa, and has to pipelines and transport lines. It was also exposed to residential areas, where Iran’s attacks killed at least 23 Israeli civilians, according to Israel.

“The understanding of Iranian thinking is important – even if three missiles happen, this is a victory,” said Vacil in Chatham House.

So far, Iran has avoided escalation beyond Israel. It has not yet been implemented threats to strike American military bases in the region, if they were attacked, or disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a third of the transferred oil in the world passes, or to target energy facilities in the neighboring Gulf states.

Analysts say that this partly avoids attracting the United States to war, with Iran warning against further damage to itself, and partly because it wants to maintain improved relations with the competing Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

“They want to maintain this situation, and I think their goal is to resist as long as they are able while searching for the slope outside when they appear,” Fachel said. “There must be a type of stalemate, reduce tensions, or the back channel agreement to find a climbing method.”

But at the present time, this is out of Iran’s control.

“We are not there yet, because it is clear that Netanyahu has greater goals,” Fachel said.