Iran responded. But can Israel deter?

While Israel is more waves of attacks on Iran, which Donald Trump warned of being “more brutal”, the leaders of the Islamic Republic pledged revenge.

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But what can Iran Is it greatly to deter Israel? Tehran – strangled by years of penalties, and with the presence of the main Shiite agents in the region, it was severely placed – in what it considers existential existence. Battle against A regional force backed by the latest Western military group and abundant American support.

“The Iranians will struggle to mobilize a meaningful response,” said Dan Shapiro, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Middle East in the Pentagon.

The first sulfo from Iran was successfully intercepted by drones. On Friday night, Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles, some of which penetrated Israel’s defenses to strike buildings in urban areas. The grades were injured and some were killed.

The largest part of the missiles was intercepted and the filling was on a smaller scale than two Iranian reprisals last year in terms of numbers. But it seems that Iran has turned its tactics, as it was launched in successive waves all night and early in the morning, and targeted Tel Aviv in the first place, making it more destructive.

Instead of changing the calculus account, or deterring additional strikes, pushing the attack on Israel to the promise of more escalation.

“The real dilemma of Iran will be whether you are going to work nuclear collapse,” said Shapiro, a former American ambassador to Israel. “They may count this will give them deterrence to ensure the system remains – but this is also at risk of drawing in the United States.”

UN inspectors have sought for years hard to monitor Iran Nuclear program Especially enriching uranium, which can produce both materials and weapons. In recent years, Iran has expanded its inventory of enriched uranium at the arms level.

Experts say he has the ability to produce sufficient police materials for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks.

Surveillance efforts make it unlikely – but it is not impossible – that Iran has already secreted enough creatures for one simple bomb, which requires less than 15 kg of enriched uranium. Putting uranium on a warhead and a developing missile capacity represents more challenges, but with enough fissile materials, the theory can design what is called a “dirty bomb”.

Such sharp steps may have similarities with Israel’s development of a secret nuclear arsenal, which is the “Day of Resurrection”, which has evolved into the nuclear principle, nicknamed the SAMSON option.

During the 1967 war, Israeli officials authorized a plan for the recent reduction of the bombing of a nuclear device that was hastily assembled in the Sinai desert, with the aim of freezing the conflict before crossing the Arab armies of the Israeli border. (In this event, Israel won the war – the plan became public only in 2001.)

Other options are more traditional: attacking Israeli military facilities and diplomatic missions, or implementing the threat, which were expressed by some leaders, from hitting American military targets in the Middle East.

Iranian forces can also turn into an asymmetric war, in an attempt to close or disrupt the hormone strait, a major waterway that separates Iran from the Gulf states, through which nearly a third of oil exports on the sea flow on the sea.

Each carries great risks to Iran, including the possibility of amazing failure or More escalationA former Israeli official, who has worked on similar reviews in the past.

Analysts and persons familiar with Israeli defense plans expect that Iran will continue to try to overcome the multi -layer air defenses of Israel with a huge wave of drones and missiles. Such attacks can target Israeli nuclear installations, air bases and other critical infrastructure, such as ports and airport in Tel Aviv.

This would compel Israel to legalize its limited supplies of intersection missiles, which had to be renewed on an urgent basis after 20 months of war with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and two Iranian Aran in April and October 2024.

Iran’s barrier on Friday, and these two previous attacks showed that the best missiles in Iran could penetrate the Israeli air defenses, even when they were strengthened by deploying us an emergency and throughout another warship that hits missiles and drones away from the Israeli airspace.

Satellite photos showed later. One landed near the headquarters of Musad in northern Tel Aviv. Others hit a second air base.

But two people knowing this attack said that it also showed the limits of Iran’s capabilities. The damage to the air bases was quickly repaired, and no plane and Israeli radar operators were affected by their algorithms on groups of data collected during the attack.

An Iranian missile was fired in Israel in October the first time that the air defenses were tested in the country accurately through a regional force, instead of Hamas missiles, which are easily interceptor by the Iron Dome system. However, this attack was raised at a time when Iran was seeking to avoid the complete conflict with Israel, which it now found. In each of the attacks last year, Tehran targeted military sites, while the targets this time are wider and across multiple cities and towns.

One of Iran’s goals last year, according to an analysis conducted after the event conducted by the Military Intelligence Directorate, was to see the success of the “rapid saturation event” that could overwhelm Israeli defense regulations.

Israel’s military doctrine related to legalization – how many at any time is a national secret – takes into account the nature of the attack and the goal.

If running on the missiles, protecting military targets is more important, in order to protect the ability to attack, for example. Fox News said on Friday that the United States had renewed a large amount of Tamir’s objections that Israel used, which is partly manufactured in the United States, stated on Friday that the United States had renewed a large amount of Tamir objections that Israel used, which is partly manufactured in the United States.

Another worker also restricted Iran: the turmoil from the first wave of Israeli strikes, according to Israel. She said that the Israeli Air Force on Friday night hit the rockets from Iran to a roof to a roof, aimed at sharply any possible counter attack.

This would have affected the scale through which Iran would be able to an immediate anti -attack.

Iran also needed to spend time in evaluation after the assassination of senior Iranian officials responsible for the military strategy. She said that the military officers were “very vital, very familiar, and they were in their jobs for many years.”

The former Air Force pilot, who was trained in similar tasks a decade ago, said that the destruction of missile systems is not complicated as the destruction of underground nuclear facilities in Iran.

He said, “Missile systems require very complex mechanisms to work together.” “To disable the system, you do not have to destroy it, just hit one component (decisive) is enough – radar, transportation system, even the mechanical systems that put the missile.”

He said that knowing its location is much more beneficial than the type of weapons used.

The Israeli Air Force is expected to perform repeated bombings in the coming days, and to destroy Iranian air defenses – some of which were made locally, while others are buyers such as Russia – to maintain air superiority.

This would compel Iran to allocate the limited missile systems defensively, as the former pilot said, instead of using it to punish Israel.

“It is now clear that (our pilots) can strike the will in Iran,” he said. “This was not always true, and it completely changes the equation.”

Graphic illustrations by Ian Pot and Stephen Bernard