Can Israel destroy Iranian nuclear sites?

Israel’s attack on Iran included more than half of the Israeli Air Force – 200 aircraft in at least two waves – starting from the early hours of Friday morning.

The attacks were aimed at beheading the military leadership in Iran, and destroying the ballistic missile production facilities and harmful nuclear facilities in locations such as Natanz and Fordo.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the strikes will continue “as long as it takes”, with the ultimate goal of destroying Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons.

Israel, and in itself an uncomplicated nuclear weapon, has long witnessed nuclear armed Iran as an existential threat.

Netanyahu’s open announcement indicates that the timetable will depend on the advanced military targets and Iranian responses. Tehran has already retaliated by launching more than 100 drones towards Israel, and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, pledged serious consequences.

“The big question is whether this slows down or rushes Iran’s endeavor to a nuclear weapon,” said John Aterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He added: “The argument of Israel is that they can continue to do so if Iran continues.” “However, Iran may decide that it needs to develop a nuclear deterrent (and leave the international nuclear non -spread system. … I don’t think the answer is clear.”

Can Israel destroy Iranian nuclear sites in itself?

Israel said it struck Natanz on Friday and “the underground area” of the site was damaged, which is a multi -dye area with centrifugal devices, electric rooms and other infrastructure. Israel did not explain whether it was targeting Fordo.

Both nuclear facilities were created with the placement of such strikes in mind. The Fordow facility was buried to enrich the fuel under a mountain, both IT and Natanz under dozens of reinforced concrete. The destruction of such a structure will require consecutive strikes with severed cellar bombs.

While the United States has surreptitious B-2 bombers by hacking huge orders of only 30,000 pounds designed for this type of strike, Israel’s options are limited-if they are working alone.

Israeli fighter bombers can carry F-15 from 4000 to 5,000 GBU-28 bombs, each capable of punching from 5 to 6 meters of concrete. Israel has such bombs, but its numbers are a secret deprived, and a few analysts believe that the country has enough on its own to do this task.

Charles, father, who is now working at the Jewish National Security Institute, said in April that the Israeli forces “do not have enough 5,000 pounds to remove Ford and Nanz, retired from the US Air Force Charles father, who is now working at the Jewish Institute of National Security, in April.

They have more penetrated bombs from Blu-109 2009 pounds, able to carry them on my hidden fighters from F-35. This was used in October 2024 to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an underground shelter in Beirut, but the assassination requires multiple passes. The penetration of reinforced warehouses that protect the Iranian nuclear program will take much more.

Israel can also target nuclear sites with parked weapons-ballistic missiles launched from combat aircraft, and may fly over the Syrian air spaces-without even coming to the remaining Iranian air defenses. But this on its own will not be enough.

“They can cause great damage to the Iranian nuclear program,” said Matthew Savil, head of the Ministry of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “It is doubtful that they can destroy everything on their own, but I think they are ready to continue to hit her over time.”

How flexible Natanz and Fordo?

Natanz, near ISFAHAN, and Fordow, which was built in Jabal near Qom, are the main sites of Iran to enrich uranium and the main targets of Israeli air strikes that aim to neutralize the Iranian nuclear program.

Both establishments are managed thousands of centrifuges designed to produce different degrees of enriched uranium. They have been born with a large 60 percent stock of enriched uranium, which will only require an additional enrichment to achieve a 90 percent level of weapons.

In May, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations Nuclear Monitoring, estimates that Iran has accumulated 408.6 kg, and produces advanced centrifugal in Natanz and Forddo on average 33.5 kg per month.

According to the report of this month by the Washington Institute for International Science and Security, the “collapse” will take three weeks, “enough for nine nuclear weapons.”

Many of this fertilized uranium inventory may have been transferred to an ISFAHAN facility, the FOFP fuel manufacturer (FPFP), according to the ISIS report.

Daria Dolzikova, a Russian nuclear weapon expert, said it would be difficult for Israel to destroy the ability of the entire Iranian nuclear enrichment.

She said: “Natanz is not the only enrichment facility in Iran; its most stiff position was not affected – in Fordo – and there are no other major nuclear sites across the country.”

“If Iran takes a decision to produce a nuclear weapon, it is possible that it will do so in solid sites and may still be secret.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency has been closely monitoring the Iranian nuclear program, but it has not been reported to the highly enriched uranium stock site since 2023.

“The truth is that we do not know where 60 percent (uranium stock) is publicly unknown,” said David Ulbright, President of ISIS. “It is clear that the International Atomic Energy Agency is known to a certain point … but if Iran is moving it from one protection site to another, the International Atomic Energy Agency does not go along the ride.”

What are the goals of Israel?

In addition to the ultimate goal of neutralizing what it says is Iran’s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, Israel has killed a number of senior military, political and scientists, including Major General Hussein Salami, the Supreme Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This indicates that among their goals may be the change of the system, although this has not said explicitly.

Experts remain skeptical that Israel itself will be able to achieve any of these ambitious goals.

“The Israeli Air Force cannot be decisively expelled in the Iranian nuclear program.

“The remains can be assembled by secret, and fears of Iranian nuclear revenge will definitely grow – may have caused a land war, as happened against Iraq in 2003.”

He also warned that any campaign of Israeli air strikes would be unlikely to succeed alone in changing the government in Tehran, if this is an Israeli target.

“The Air Force alone has never closed a government. Israel’s attempt would be just another data point.”

How do Iranian air defenses perform?

Last year, Israel attacked Iran using the air-fired ballistic missiles far from the reach of the most advanced air defenses in Iran, Russian supplied S-300 Surface with air missiles. These Israeli strikes have severely deteriorated the most advanced air defenses in Iran, especially S-300, and it is not clear.

On Friday morning, the Israeli army announced that it had “completed a large -scale blow against the Iranian regime’s air defense group in western Iran,” which destroyed “dozens of radar and surface missile launchers abroad.”

Before attacking nuclear sites with hidden bombs, it is likely that Israel will destroy or disturb a lot of Iran’s air defenses, using anti-radiation missiles designed to target radar-curses from operating their SAM systems.

However, Iran had prepared for such an attack, and it had many types of air defenses, some of which were provided by Russia or China, with many mobile launchers capable of hiding and staying the first wave of attacks. These may play her role in the coming days.

Even the least advanced air defense in Iran may be dangerous for Israeli aircraft. For example, in 2018 Syria shot down an Israeli F-16 plane with a S-200 missile from the surface, a Russian system that entered service in the late 1960s. The plane crashed in northern Israel and the pilots survived.

What about Iran’s response?

Israel has said that Iran has launched more than 100 drones so far, which seems to reach 136 Shahi of the type that Russia uses against Ukraine. It may take hours to reach their targets, making it easy for Israel’s air defenses to capture them. However, the Iranian strategy may be the exhaustion of Israeli stocks from the exclusive missiles, then sending ballistic missiles more advanced and more difficult.

The anti -Israeli anti -layer defense system, which includes the Iron Dome and was strengthened late last year by the American anti -car battery, is the legendary.

It was almost an irreplaceable performance during the previous Iranian strikes against Israel, twice in 2024. However, it is important, American military assets and the United Kingdom, including destroyed in the US Navy and two British Royal Air Force, and increasing the air defenses of Israel during those attacks by tracking incoming missiles and at the state of fire in the United States.

On Friday, the United Kingdom indicated that it will not participate in Israel’s defense.

Israel’s supplies of objections have become an issue, and the country has struggled to restore the provider of air defense systems after a rising year of the attacks by Iran and its Kzbah and the Houthi militias in Yemen.

Last October, the Israel Space Company, the state -owned company that makes the stock objections used to drop the ballistic missiles, said it had to operate triple transformations to maintain its production lines in full tilt, and that “it was not a secret that (Israel) needed to renew the shares.”

According to what was reported, Iran has increased in recent months of the production of ballistic missiles to about 50 months, with a specific goal that is the ability to launch more missiles, which Israel can defend itself.

The current inventory of missiles and ballistic aircraft in Iran is the secret of close guarding, but according to the intelligence of the United States that the country has about 2000 ballistic missiles with warheads that can carry 2000 pounds of explosives or more, according to Axios.

Graphic illustrations for Haslet and Ian Pot