Put two domestic characters in the room, add competing targets and a huge dose of pressure on the media, and what do you happen? Let’s just say that the prominent friendly epic to the back is not very surprising.
Elon Musk and Donald Trump attracts personalities with a tendency to drop verbal bombs, and this was particularly evident this week, as the two were of the big beautiful bill, electric vehicle credits, and debt.
However, the rift may be shocked, however, given the extent of MUSK and Trump closely over the past year.
Musk spent hundreds of millions of help in electing Donald Trump as president, and Trump Mousse’s rewards in his administration as head of the Ministry of Government Efficiency, or Doug. Trump has gone further to host the Tesla showroom in the White House Park to support Musk after MUSK’s political activity decreased Tesla sales.
One person was not less surprised by the prominent dust was the manager of veteran hedge funds. In December, he chose the separation cup as one of the 15 best surprises for 2025.
It was far from the only correct expectations of a cup. He also expected the stock market account to lead to a 1500 % decrease in the S&P 500, and in April, he expected to find the shares to find their feet after the brutal sale.
Cass recently reconsidered in Musk and Trump, and how stocks interact with their repercussions. A future look of S&P 500 may be disappointed, while eating it on Trump and musk may surprise more.
Doug Cas, the director of hedge funds, expected that Elon Musk’s relationship with President Donald Trump will be offered. Cass updated his view on the S&P 500 after a high -level dispute between mercury leaders. Thestreet
After the gains of 20 % of the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, including 24 % impressive return last year, investors may expect more good times in 2025.
After that, the reality in the stock market began with a series of shocks, which many were presented by President Trump and Elon Musk, by reducing the upcoming and alleged costs in Dog.
The stocks came to 2025 at the price of perfection. Optimism about the friendly federal reserve in monetary policy of interest rate discounts and a flood of artificial expenditure is a great revenue last year, which prompted a price rate to the S&P 500 North profit.
Historically, the returns were after the P/E high levels were largely faded. This point was not lost on Kass, which said correctly in December that the S&P 500 could decrease by 15 % in 2025.
The stocks tend to produce faded returns in the following year when the S&P 500 P/E 20.image Source & Colon exceeds the percentage of S&P/E 20.image Source & Colon; Thestreet
“Surprise 9: In 2025, the S&P index decreases by about 15 %. Nasdaq technology loaded with more than 20 %,” Written Cas.
Cass defeated the Habbiyah drum continuously until February, when the S&P 500 was reflected after reaching the highest level ever. From mid -February to early April, the bombs in the form of high ads caused high ads from President Trump and the losses of jobs from Dog’s efforts in Musk to decrease the measurement index. In its worst cases, the S&P 500 index decreased by 19 %, while NASDAQ technology decreased by 24 %.
The sharp decline was painful, and many hit the sale button, worried that an endless stream of uncertainty would lead to greater losses. However, Kass is properly reversed, which leads to purchases on deals on indexes and technology leaders, including Amazon, near its lowest levels.
Since then, Trump’s stopping of customs tariffs and the capabilities of commercial deals that reduce the bite of customs tariffs have helped fuel the amazing recovery, and raise S&P 500 by 20 %.
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The result was to ride a nausea vessel for purchase and purchase investors.
This was especially true for Tesla ((Timing)) Shareholders. EV has risen after Trump’s election amid hope that the musk links at the White House will pave the way for sales growth. Instead, the MUSK efforts made by controversial political comments caused a mass migration of Tesla Al -Mawladin buyers.
Sales archives in the main markets, including Europe and California, the largest car market in the United States. In Europe, Tesla sales decreased by 49 % on an annual basis in April to 7261 cars, according to the European auto manufacturers Association. In California, Tesla records decreased by 21.5 % on an annual basis in the first quarter, while non -TESla electric vehicles (EV) increased by 14 %.
Tesla share price won the result, decreasing by 54 % of mid -December levels to its lowest level in early April. It has since been recovered alongside the wide market, where it jumped by 35 %, largely on the news that Elon Musk will move away from Dog.
Doug Cas saw something or two. His career dates back to the seventies of the last century in the director of money, Putnam, including the director of billionaire research, Lyon Copman, for advisers in Omega.
His deep experience in the markets means professionally that he had a seat in the front row of his share of political and economic surprises and the market market. The collapse of Richard Nixon Watergate, the seventies by inflation, the savings and loans crisis, the prosperity of the Internet and the statue, the comment of Chad, a great financial shock driven by housing, the issuance of Trump 1.0, Kofid, and the shock of recent inflation and recovery.
Every December, this experience is tested with the “Surprises” list for the next year. This year, in addition to predicting the sale of the S&P 500, expect a non -friendly end to the Trump Musk relationship.
Cass wrote: “Surprise No. 2:” The other “romantic, between Trump/Musk, do not make it in the spring of 2025.” “National protests and demonstrations are highlighted and demands the demands of a wide range of members of the Republican and Democratic Parties (including conservatives and liberals)” Evallation “, Elon Musk, an uncomfortable official, to play such a dominant role in the US government.”
The prediction of musk in Kass is a longer reading, but the essence is simple: musk and Trump will suffer from repercussions, which may have consequences for investors. He reviewed his outlook, as he presented a new experience in Trump Musk’s position.
Cass wrote: “We have directly before us, it is clear that the political positions of the influence can be easily purchased by the two parties (this certainly includes the presidency).” “I am not sure where the performance ends and the reality begins. In the end (maybe urgent for futures)-just like the opening of the president represented in the proposals of the high tariffs in a way that is ridiculous-it is possible that the two actions are likely to have a component, and that day could not happen. He was involved in the fact that musk and Trump realize their bread.”
It will be welcome, given that long -term nipples will turn the fuel market. However, a cup view of what happens to the next stock market does not encourage.
“There was not much of my investment career in my investment career, as there were a lot of social, political, biological, economic, interest, and financial political results (many of them opposite). For this reason, I do not understand Uber’s confidence that Berma Paul Kabal (led by Tom Ledstat) was manifested and was manifested in a semi -multiple move for shares over the past two months,” Cass continued. “With a front from 22x, the shares remain exaggerated, and after covering the index shorts yesterday, I plan to reformulate any gathering.”
If a cup is right that instability will lead to a decrease in shares, what is the extent of its decline, and when will things improve?
“I see seven months meager in our markets. We appreciate the risks of the downside to be about 3x bonus,” concludes.
