The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC
Stephanie Reynolds Bloomberg Creative Pictures Gety pictures
Global bond sales are accelerating with the MOODY classification for American credit rating and tax law for President Donald Trump to the financial investor interests worldwide.
Rong Ren Goh, director of the portfolio, fixed income, said events such as credit rating classification or budgets that expand the widening risks tend to expand financial concerns at the front and among investor minds, forcing them to restore long risks.
While Trump was unable to influence the Republican Party dissolution to support the vast tax bill that could pay our debts to the highest bYA expected 3 trillion dollars to 5 trillion dollarsIt seems that it has shouted global bonds.
Investors do not have much love for long -term bonds at the present time.
Steve Sosnik
The head of interactive intermediaries, the chief strategy
“The markets do not find” a large and beautiful tax bill, “beautifully beautiful,” said Fishno Varathon, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities. “USTS is beaten in an ugly sale.”
US 30 years of treasury The return on the main 5 % mark has collapsed for the second day in a row, and the level of the level reached in November 2023. It currently maintains 5.088 %. Standard 10 years of return treasury I went up more than 15 basis points since the beginning of the week.
Market monitors said that the sale of the treasury comes against the background of the exit in American assets in April, and it is largely due to the low confidence of investors in American assets.
When investors flooded the treasury bonds last month, they turned into bonds in Japan and Germany. This time, the cabinet accompanies the sale of investors who leave bonds across many major markets.
Infection effect – and more
Long -term bonds were operated in each market with distinct factors, as the common thread was the increasing discomfort with the increasing financial paths. “These fears raise a reassessment of the term premium required to hold bonds of a long history.”
The return of government bonds in Japan was 40 years old in 3.689 % on Thursday. The government bond returns for 30 years in the country were hovering near its highest level at 3.187 %.
Return on the standard of Japan Government support for 10 years 9 basis points rose to 1.57 % so far this week.
The rapid decline in the government bond return curve in Japan is due for several reasons, but the key is the structural. Japanese life insurance companies, which are used to buying long -term bonds in large numbers to comply with somewhat sheet, are no longer, because they have largely received regulatory standards, according to Bank of America.
In addition, the tendency of the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy, which collides with the financial problems of the Asian nation, also has a hand in fueling the sale of bonds, said Varathon.
The sales of Japanese government bonds is a greater problem for US sovereign debt. “By making Japanese origins an attractive alternative to local investors, he encourages further disposal of the United States,” wrote George Saravilus, head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
German government bonds – known as Bunds – are also thrown. The return on German debt increased for 30 years over more than 12 basis points, while the return for 10 years has risen on 6 basis points.
“The removal of German debt brakes along with continental re -arms, which indicates the end of the supportive bias in Europe and the revival of regional growth prospects, it can be said that the catalyst for the process (selling bonds),” said Philip McNikolas, strategic strategies in the global income team for global income in Robeco.
American bonds and Japan for 30 years in the past six months
Varathon said in Mezoho:
The revenues of government bonds in Europe, which lasted 30 years, rose over more than 12 basis points this week, and the revenues of 10 years have risen about 7 basis points.
“Investors do not really have long -term bonds at the present time,” Steve Sosnik, chief strategic expert in interactive brokers told CNBC.
Sosnik said that the fears related to global inflation are also a “killer” for the longest bonds, adding that the short -term bonds are usually affected by the policy of the central bank, while the longest debts are affected by investor expectations about the future of the economy.
Although bonds in some emerging markets have shattered the broader direction, with their revenue lower.
McNchelas said that the 10 -year -old bonds in India, which 10 years have declined, significantly, because they are more local -oriented markets, partly due to capital controls.
Government bond returns have decreased for 10 years in India by two basic points since Monday, while China’s return for 10 years has declined marginally.
“Foreign investors and global factors are much lower than the limits related to their return curves,” he said.
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