Big Oil shareholders, which were shattered by oil under threat

lengthy Crude prices fell The pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocating money to shareholders has increased.

Western Energy Supermajors has long sought to return money to investors through re -purchase programs and profit distributions to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives also Express her confidence They can continue to reward investors after a relatively strong set of profits for the first quarter.

However, some analysts are less convinced about the Big Oil pledge to restore the returns of higher shareholders at all, already cited with camouflaged budgets and a sharp decrease in crude prices.

Oil prices fell by more than 12 % on an annual basis, amid concerns about the continuous demand and US President Donald Trump The background policy.

Espen Eringsen, head of source research at Consultance Rystad Energy, He said The recent market fluctuations have left energy specialties with “little economically attractive options” that allow re -investment while maintaining the framework of competitive capital.

“Like companies coincidence and Exxonmobil Continue to move forward with large -scale repurchase programs despite the shrinking cash flows, the durability of these strategies is a question. Currently, the majors are held. “If oil prices remain depressed, the adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingen said in a research note published on Thursday.

He added that the re -purchases of shares, which are usually more flexible than profits, “may be the first lever to be pulled.” In this context, raw prices mean the weakest specialties in energy less money to return to shareholders.

The investor’s concern about the sustainability of the shareholders ’revenues in Big Oil comes after a year of record payments.

Analysts at Rystad said that the total shareholders ’rewards such as Shell, BPand Total energyand EiniExxon Mobil and Chevron He rose to $ 119 billion in 2024, overcoming the previous record in 2023.

Restad said that the payment rate, which indicates shareholders ’batches as a share of the cash flow of companies from operations (CFFO), and at the same time jumped to 56 % last year. Analysts added that this was much higher than 30 % to 40 %, which was typical of the industry from 2012 to 2022.

If the shareholders’ payments will remain at 2024 levels throughout 2025, Rystad said this means that companies distribute more than 80 % of the cash flows to investors. The estimate was based on CFFO in the first quarter of Big Oil as an alternative to the entire public performance.

Wall Street B. Repsol And Eni at that time. He added that only coincidence, totalenergies and Timing Among the regional players were likely to keep their 2025 purchase outlets.

Official speakers named Repsol and ENI are not immediately available to comment when calling it by CNBC.

To date, BP is the only specialization in European energy that has reduced the operating rate. The British oil company besieged last month to publish A sharp decrease in profit in the first quarter and reduced shares to 750 million dollars, a decrease of $ 1.75 billion in the previous quarter.

BP, which was an intense theme Speculation of acquisitionalso I mentioned A much lower cash flow and net debt height for the first quarter.

Lydia Renfore, head of the European Energy, said stock research in Barclays said that the future of BP seems to be “really bright” – provided that the company can reach during the next six months.

“If you think when the maximum weakness of BP is, it will be during the next six months, in the end. Debts still rise slightly, production continues until mid -2016.”

“As I reach the end of the year, we hope to see that the total debt disposal operations. Things like … Sell ​​their lubrication materialsThis can be brought up between 12 billion dollars to $ 15 billion. She added that this reduces debt, and begins to see the benefit of the coming cost savings, and then production growth begins in kicking next year.