People walk in the field of the August, London, on April 28, 2025.
Adrian Fion Norfuto Gety pictures
It was rare for a series of positive economic news outside the United Kingdom in 2025 – but this week, Britain gave three reasons for optimism.
On Friday, the data indicates an unexpected positive momentum in the country’s economy, with retail sales It rises much better than expected 1.2 % in AprilThe consumer confidence index in GFK shows an improvement in feelings.
The British pound gained 0.6 % against the US dollar after publishing the numbers on Friday, for about $ 1.35.
On Friday, the combination of the two positive persons led to expectations and logic for some economists. It was widely expected that economic activity in April would appear a decline, partly due to US President Donald Trump’s global war.
Rob Wood, the UK’s chief economist in the macroeconomic economy, said, adding that a number of factors, which were not affected by politicians or companies, were in the total Pantheon, adding that a number of factors, which were not affected by politicians or businesses, “
“However, official sales growth seems very good to be right, probably with the failure of the seasonal modification to control adequately on the subsequent Easter this year,” Wood added. “There is no doubt that the weather helped a lot, as both March and April have registered most of the sun since the start of the records.”
Retailing numbers were taken on Friday and consumer confidence data on Friday to growth in the current quarter. However, British Electricity Officer OFGEM added to positive feelings through Friday announcement that electricity prices are scheduled to decrease by 7 % in July. This can lead to fuel in other sectors in the coming months.
“This is definitely an improvement in family expenses, as the monthly bills are likely to decrease by about 11 pounds,” said Eli Henderson, economist at Investec.
Meanwhile, a series of positive elements can arise economic growth in the UK for the second quarter as a whole, according to Alan Monks, UK’s chief economist at JPMorgan who is expected to achieve an annual gain of 0.6 %.
“With the high home savings rate, the continuous improvement in confidence has the ability to open more gains on consumers,” JP Morgan monks said in a memorandum of customers on Friday. “High inflation, the growth of the most soft wages and poor labor argument against the continuation of this trend. But the rise in confidence in May was offset by a significant decrease in unemployment fears, low inflation expectations and high spending intentions.”
Expectations were looked at the United Kingdom over the past year. The country has struggled with relapses like Undoubted economic contraction And the increasing concern about financial spending plans, while seeing some positive data and the agreement of commercial deals with commercial deals USand India and Trait.
Earlier this week, official numbers showed the economy It grew 0.7 % in the first quarter of 2025 – Although this came as local The inflation rose to 3.5 % In April. Last week, another Data printing The average profits in the UK showed 5.9 % on an annual basis.
The data mix means that the economists appeared on Friday about what is the last seizure of the long -term economic data in the United Kingdom.
Alex Care, UK economist at Capital Economics, warned that “the sun will not shine in the retail sector (Britain) forever.”
“Despite the first time since 2015, with the exception of the epidemic, retail sales sizes have increased for four consecutive months, but an impressive increase of 1.2 %/m is largely driven by the unusual warm weather.”
“This support will not continue. So although consumer confidence has risen a little in May, we are doubting that the growth of retail sales will slow down in the coming months.”
The “depressed” British resort to retail sale
While most economists looked at the small increase in consumer confidence in May as a positive indication of the economic growth for the next quarter, others suggested that since the total feelings remain less than prenatal levels, the relationship between spending and feeling may be broken instead.
“British consumers, depressed British, have resorted to retail treatment to deal with their economic and financial problems,” said Andrew Weshdi, the UK’s chief economist in Bernberg.
Instead, Wishart said a mixture of an epidemic, continues inflation and raising interest rates has prompted consumers to increase their financial resources.
“Families have increased the savings rate (the non -spent family income class) to a previously invisible level outside the collective unemployment periods.”
After settling in bank balances and guaranteed wages, consumers now spend in anticipation of a more stable interest environment and price environment, according to The Economist.
He added that additional spending means that additional spending means that the Bank of England was more likely to rate for the rest of the year than the reduction.
Janet Moy, head of market analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin, said in an e -mail on Friday morning that with the growth of wages that are now beyond inflation, families in the United Kingdom are generously spent. However, she warned that public financial resources in Britain “remain a restriction.”
“With the high borrowing costs, more tax increase and spending dances in departments may occur,” she explained. “This constitutes some medium -term growth risk of the United Kingdom amid constant uncertainty about how the global trade situation stabilizes.”
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