South Sudan on the edge with the Sudan war threatens the vital oil industry Sudan war news

South Sudan depends on oil for more than 90 percent of its government revenues, and the country relies entirely on Sudan to export the precious resource.

But this month, the government -backed government in Sudan said it is preparing to close the facilities used by its southern neighbor to export oil, according to an official government message that the island saw.

This decision may collapse the economy in South Sudan and drag it directly to the Sudan civil war between the army and the semi -military rapid support forces (RSF).

It was announced on May 9 after the launch of RSF Dronitial suicide aircraft For six consecutive days in Port Sudanand The capital of the army in wartime on the strategic Red Sea coast.

The strikes destroyed the fuel depot and damaged electricity networks, breaking the city, which is located away from the country’s front lines.

The Sudan Army claims that the damage it impedes now from the export of oil in southern Sudan.

“The advertisement is read like a desperate call (to southern Sudan) to help stop these attacks (RSF),” said Alan Bouswell, an expert in the Horn of Africa in the International Crisis Group.

“But I believe that doing so exaggerate the estimation of the leverage that southern Sudan has … on RSF,” he added.

Predatory economy

Since South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, the first relied on the latter to export oil via Port Sudan.

On the other hand, Sudan collected fees from Juba as part of the 2005 Peace Agreement, which ended the civil war from the north and south of 22 and ultimately led to the secession of South Sudan from Sudan.

When Sudan erupted in another civil war between the army and RSF in 2023, the first continued to collect fees from Juba.

((Sudan and South Sudan) are financially linked to the hip due to the infrastructure for the export of oil, “Buswell told Al -Jazeera.

Local media recently reported that high -ranking officials from South Sudan and Sudan are participating in talks to avoid the closure of oil exports.

Al -Jazeera sent written questions to the Minister of Energy and Petroleum in Port Sudan, neutrals Naim Mohamed, asking whether the army is negotiating with higher rental fees than South Sudan before the resumption of oil exports, which some experts are suspected of a possible scenario.

Naim Muhammad did not respond before publishing.

According to the International Crisis Group, Juba also pays RSF to not destroy the oil pipelines that pass through the territories subject to its control.

In addition, South Sudan allowed RSF to work in villages along the Sudanese Sudanese border and the south.

RSF has increased its presence along the sprawling limits that are easy to penetrate yet Forming a strategic alliance With the People’s Liberation Movement, the North (Splm-N) in February.

SPLM-n, along with the separation forces against the Sudan Army, fought. It controls areas of land in Sudan areas south of Kordovan and Blue Nile and has historical relations with Juba.

Edmund Yakani, a civil society leader in South Sudan, said that the relationship of South Sudan with Splm-N and RSF has increased foiled the Sudan Army.

“(Sudan Army) suspects that Juba helps RSF in its military ability and a political space for maneuvering its struggle against the Sudan Army,” Yakani told Al -Jazeera.

Cards House

According to a report issued by the International Crisis Group since 2021, about 60 percent of oil profits in southern Sudan go to multinationals that produce oil.

The report explained that most of the remaining 40 percent go to pay the loans suspended and to the ruling elites of southern Sudan in the enlarged and bureaucratic security sector.

The President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir, may not be able to maintain his sponsorship network without a rapid resumption of oil revenues.

Experts have warned that his fragile government – a long -standing alliance and opponents – may collapse like the card house.

Al -Jazeera, via e -mail, sent written questions to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in South Sudan and international cooperation to ask whether the country has any emergency plan if oil exports stopped indefinitely. The ministry did not respond before publishing.

Experts have warned that South Sudan has no oil alternative.

Security personnel and civil service employees are already owed by back wages, and they may turn to CARE-and with each other-if they do not have an incentive to support the fragile peace agreement that ended the civil war in South Sudan in 2018.

“Care is very in full swing, and there is no backup plan when oil is running out,” said Matthew Benson, a scientist in Sudan and South Sudan at London College of Economics.

The cessation of oil revenues would lead to an increase in inflation, which exacerbates the daily struggles of millions of civilians.

The World Food Program estimated that about 60 percent of the population suffers from a severe food shortage, while the World Bank found that approximately 80 percent live below the poverty line.

The hardship and corruption scattered, in the predatory economy in which the armed groups designed the checkpoints to calm civilians on bribes and taxes.

Civilians are likely to be unable to cough any other money if oil revenues dried up.

“I am not sure that people can press more than they are already,” said Benson.

War of the agent?

Some commentators and activists also fear that the Sudan Army will deliberately stop oil to force southern Sudan to cut off all RSF and Splm-N.

These speculation feed some civilians in South Sudan, according to Layakani.

Meanwhile, some supporters of the Sudan Army have argued that South Sudan should not benefit from oil as long as it provides any degree of support for RSF, which they consider a militia of launch a rebellion against the state.

RSF and the army recruited the mercenaries of South Sudan to fight on their behalf, Al -Jazeera previously mentioned.

“What Port Sudan (the army) wants is for Juba to completely deviate from RSF in any way, and this is the complications that have become a government (KIIR) now,” Yakani told Al -Jazeera Island.

He added: “The majority of citizens of South Sudan – including me – believe that South Sudan has become a land of the agent of the warring parties in Sudan and their allies (regional).”

Sudan’s army also believes that the government of South Sudan is increasingly dependent on RSF regional supporters to support its security.

The leaders of the army in Sudan were particularly dismayed when Uganda, who is seen as supporting RSF, is the forces to support Kiir in March, according to Buswell.

In addition, the Sudan Army has repeatedly accused the United Arab Emirates of arming RSF.

the The UAE has repeatedly denied these allegationsUN experts and Amnesty International.

“The United Arab Emirates has already made it clear that it does not provide any support or supplies to any of the two warriors warrior in Sudan,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Emirates in the UAE, which had previously told Al -Jazeera in an email.

Despite the tensions between the Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, analysts said that Juba may demand a large loan from the United Arab Emirates to maintain its careful sponsorship if the Sudan army does not resume oil exports immediately.

“(Sudan’s Army) was worrying and closely monitoring whether the United Arab Emirates had lended to South Sudan a large amount of money,” said Boussell.

“I think the huge UAE loan to South Sudan will be … a red line for the Sudan Army,” he added.