The Masashis in the United Kingdom and the European Union have major points before the first summit since Britain left the European Union

“Do not expect miracles. But don’t know – everyone wants to do this.”

On Monday in London, the European Union and the United Kingdom carry a bilateral summit since Britain left the European Union. In terms of symbolism, this is a great moment.

Officials and analysts to whom I talk, and stopping the record, like the individual that I just conveyed, are rushing to indicate the difficulties between the two sides.

But everyone recognizes the bitterness raised by Britain’s exit from the European Union. It has been removed by the danger of global events.

Fears about Russia and China, the war in Ukraine, The trauma of the United States during the era of Donald Trump is no longer priority to European defense, In addition to the increasing sense of insecurity for voters, the two powers are pushing to work near together.

“The failure to do this, in the current international context, will not be a good look,” says Anand Menon, director of the United Kingdom’s research company in Europe.

He adds that most European countries realize that he is “even the French.”

More than most of the European Union countries, France plays a harsh ball in pre -Tomet negotiations.

Is it a coincidence that talks went to the wire before Monday, the United Kingdom announced this The President of France was invited to visit the state?

King Charles and Queen Camilla Emmanuel Macron and his wife will host at Windsor Castle in July. The UK’s attempt to strike the French leader, perhaps?

“It will be interesting to know whether they can agree on a common language (the summit agreement),” says Georgina Wright, a European policy expert at the Monten Institute.

“Every person in the European Union wants closer relations with the United Kingdom at the present time, and France does not want to be seen as one country that prevents cooperation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. But this does not mean that Paris is ready to abandon basic interests.”

Interests such as fishing rights in UK waters and bidding for defense contracts in the European Union.

Negotiation – or to be more accurate – runs on “meat” from the top, I was told, to continue until the last minute.

On the same day, we can expect three separate ads:

• A joint declaration that addresses the concern geopolitical situation and confirms the priorities of foreign policy in the United Kingdom – such as the support of Ukraine, the pressure on Russia, and the end of civil suffering in Gaza
• A security agreement for the European Union and Defense
• A set of measures aimed at removing some commercial barriers between the European Union and the United Kingdom that came due to Britain’s exit from the European Union

These commercial measures are “resetting” relations with the European Union, which was promised by the Prime Minister in the United Kingdom, Sir Kerr Starmer since his party won the general elections last summer.

They are far from the UK’s Gamechanger. You hardly call an ambition.

It is impossible to destroy all commercial barriers with the European Union if the government of the Labor Party continues in the “Red Airways” not to join the customs union of the unified bloc or market.

Despite their promise to give priority to economic growth in the United Kingdom, opinion polls indicate that the majority of Britons want to do more with the European Union, the Labor Party will be increasingly felt by the European Reform Party.

He – she It was a good performance in the last local elections In the United Kingdom.

While some in the Labor Party (quietly) admit that it is inclined by a customs union with the European Union to enhance growth, any economic benefits are likely not to be clear to voters before the upcoming UK elections.

Party members fear that they will risk monitoring in the polls, amid charges by opposition governors and reform, which the government had betrayed Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Mr. Menon says these concerns make the Starmer government “more cautious and less bold.”

The UK is taking a sector approach from the sector to try to reduce the costly barriers with the European Union.

Several hours of negotiating the European Union have agreed in the plant and animal health agreement, known as the SPS agreement.

This will facilitate the export and import of meat and plant products between the European Union and the United Kingdom and helps reduce the complications of trade after Britain’s exit from the European Union between Northern Ireland and Britain.

On the other hand, the European Union insists that the UK must agree to follow any new SPS rules that have been presented in the future and accept the role of the European Court of Justice in the Convention Police.

These conditions are likely to be unimportant with supporters of Britain’s exit from the European Union.

They may also retreat in Washington and The UK complicated to make a broader future deal to agriculture with the United States, The United Kingdom will also be linked to the strict European Union standards.

But the Labor Party government knows that public opinion polls indicate that most people in the United Kingdom give the priority of trade with the European Union over the United States.

Currently, the European Union is 41 % of UK’s exports; The United States for 21 %.

The UK government is likely to insist that the SPS agreement is useful for the British economy. Although animal and plant import exports, in fact, a small part of the total gross domestic product.

“Growth is a little red herring here,” says Mr. Menon.

On the side of the European Union, the French, with the support of other hunting countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark, took a difficult position in these talks – they refused to register unless the UK agreed to the European Union’s long -term fishing rights in the United Kingdom.

The current fishing agreement ends after Britain’s exit from the European Union next year.

The reset that we will hear at the Monday summit will also include the “Mobility” section.

Starmer will receive his request for the European Union to learn about professional qualifications in the United Kingdom, to encourage across businesses.

There will also be a decrease in visa restrictions for British musicians who travel and perform in the European Union.

On the other hand, the European Union – and Germany, enthusiastically – He wants a youth movement system, Allow the citizens of the European Union to travel, study, and even work in the United Kingdom.

The UK has similar plans with Canada, Australia, South Korea and Japan, among others. But this was difficult for the agreement.

Reducing immigration numbers is the number one priority for the action government.

It is the issue of a hot button, and the UK Ministry of Interior will seek to tighten circumstances and reduce the numbers of the European Union.

Negotiations are continuing, but according to the sources of the European Union, the planned is already a name: yes, or the youth experience plan.

Some areas of negotiation are more advanced than others. This will be reflected in the two ads.

There will also be a conversation at the top of plans to deal with illegal immigration, cooperation on carbon border taxes, and simplifying energy circulation between the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Reducing the commercial barriers of the European Union and the stove on chemicals and pharmaceutical commodities is also an ambition in the UK, where it gets European Union databases, such as the Schengen Information System, to better track criminals.

But at the present time, at least, the European Union says no. If you exclude the United Kingdom, other countries other than the European Union will demand the same, as it insists.

Of course, it is in the interest of both sides fighting crime across the border. The UK argues that the current situation of the world calls for more flexible thinking than Brussels.

The most flexible thinking is also something that the UK invites when it comes to defense and security on Monday with the European Union.

The European Union and the United Kingdom already work closely together Russian sanctions and defense of Ukraine. The agreement is not a legally binding document, so what is the complexity of these conversations, can you ask?

The answer is very complex.

The UK wants to allow its defense companies to provide bids for contracts under the new European Union re -arms plan, safe (the security measure of Europe).

“The UK has gained the right to reach such a deal because of the leadership that is presented to Ukraine,” says international defense expert Sofia Gaston, a visiting colleague at King’s College College in London.

“Britain is a serious player in traditional defense capabilities, such as the production of ammunition, the latest defensive innovation, where growth and new energy are.

“If the United Kingdom was able to reach the emerging European Union defense programs, it can contribute to the mass and speed. (War in Ukraine) showed that both are required.”

But Mrs. Gaston admits, UK companies get the green light from Brussels is a “chaotic” process.

The “European Union” is still released, as Brussels is called the new drive, a continuous work, driven by the rapidly changing political geography, including fears that the United States will withdraw at least some decisive security support that Europe has adopted since World War II.

This is not yet The fully formed European Union strategy that the UK can “push to play” Part of, as it did after Britain left the European Union with the research and innovation plan in the European Union, for example.

An agreement with the United Kingdom in this industrial defensive context will be new and detailed. He is a politician.

The signing of the security agreement on Monday is a step in this process.

France wants to restrict non -European Union companies to the defense contracts, including the United Kingdom, but Canadian and American companies as well.

If the European Union spends taxpayer money on defense, it argues that it must be spent with European Union companies to help enhance the European Union’s economies.

Paris also says, in this rapidly variable world of alliances and loyalties, the European Union should rely on the self, not dependent on suppliers outside the mass.

Susters suspect France, That has an advanced defense industry, It is a desire to raise the profitable European Union contracts for itself.

But it seems that it is losing the European Union’s internal argument, with the northern European, Platik, Poland, Italy and the Netherlands in favor of more openness to defense contracts, especially with the largest economic power of the European Union, Germany, which is bounced on the United Kingdom.

“Germany and France have completely different positions towards the United Kingdom,” says Amin Steinbach from Borges.

Steinbach says Germany will always put relations with the European Heavyweight Union France and Poland first.

But he believes that the United Kingdom will help in defensive and economic negotiations with the European Union by the new German adviser, Fredchich Mirz, who argues that “the unified Europe is the absolute priority in the current geopolitical place.”

Perhaps a priority, but it is still very long because it is everything related to the settlement.

Political leaders will seek to justify the increases in defense spending by insisting on voters that for their personal security and the interest of their national economy, while strengthening the revenues of local defense industries.

But achieving a European industrial base – built to be effective, avoiding duality, and replacing many of the American capabilities that the continent depends today – means some European countries won more defensive contracts more than others.

This also means that some of the national companies that close them, in favor of the appropriate companies in the best place on the continent.

This is a difficult sale for political leaders who face their voters.

As is the last major comparison: the big increases in defensive spending will mean Governments have less funds to spend on public services.

The challenge facing Europe is to breathe. In comparison, the European Union’s symbolic summit may appear on Monday, like walking in the garden.