Beyond the tariff truce, China is preparing for a rock time with us

Although the United States and China are taking steps to curb their trade war, Beijing is preparing for broader competition with Washington to continue. For China, this means that its search for economic and diplomatic opportunities throughout Asia is unlikely to reduce its difficult line for its regional regional demands and military competition.

Both sides agreed To a temporary Cut the amazing high definitions that they imposed on each other. But the truce of the tariff will not calm the other grievances with Beijing with Washington, like the Pentagon vow To convert the military forces to Asia and the Pacific, and the ongoing efforts to limit China’s arrival to advanced technology.

The rise to the tariffs on the road to a call, and a summit between President Trump and the chief Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. But the high definitions of Mr. Trump have already weakened the hopes of guarding in Beijing that Mr. Shi could be liked by the deals maker of Mr. Trump, experts who spoke to Chinese officials and policy consultants said. While Beijing will follow the opportunity in conversations with the Trump administration, it will work for potential tension-repetitions of relationships during Mr. Trump’s first term.

“I think Beijing’s view is correct that it was correct to take a dark look at the United States’ intentions – and prepare to attend a second trade war with the policies he followed in the years since the first trade war” during Mr. Trump’s first term, he said Jonathan CzinPresident of Michael H. Armacost at foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institute, who was previously working at the CIA.

“My doubts are that Beijing believes that this is a tactical sanctuary by the United States rather than a more fundamental transformation than hostility towards the Communist Party of China,” said Mr. Chen.

President Trump’s tariff for most of the world, Mr. X A modern visit To Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia and This week’s meetings With Latin American leaders.

But the emerging approach in China in the Trump era also includes bending its strength: basically, informing other governments, especially in Asia, does not expect Beijing to prevent its regional demands and aspirations.

On the same day that Washington and Beijing announced the truce of the customs tariff, a document that developed the Chinese government’s policy warned that “external powers” formed “threats to the Chinese border areas, border areas and security in its surrounding areas.

“The Asia Pacific region has become the focus of competition between the major powers,” he said, he said White paper for Chinese national security Released on Monday. “Some countries reinforce their military alliances in the Asia Pacific region, the regional partners’ missions, and” groups “are” excluded “, in reference to the United States and its partners.

“Certainly, it will continue to try to take advantage of the unrest in Washington’s commercial policy by presenting itself as a beacon for stability and the ability to predict,” Richard McGregorOlder in East Asia at the Louis Institute in Sydney, said about China. “But she will not back down to pressure her demands for multiple sovereignty conflicts that she has with her naval neighbors.”

In early this month, a Chinese Coast Guard plane Fly The disputed islands also claimed and controlled by Japan, in a long -term friction on the islands, which Japan calls Diu by China and Sekaku. China He said he was responding To a provocative flight over the islands by a Japanese plane.

This month also, the Coast Guard in China She landed on Sandy KayA piece of sand in the disputed South China Sea, which is also demanded by the Philippines. Their work came days before the start of the United States and the Philippines began annually Joint military exercises In the Philippines.

Above all, the Chinese government remains on the edge of Taiwan, the island, which is democratically rules and which Beijing claims its territory. In early April, the Popular Liberation Army was held Exercises about Taiwan To practice imposing a siege.

Julian Jennz, a former White House policy official and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the Biden administration, said China’s leaders had not seen any contradiction in their mixture of sweet talk and the actions of fixed ball.

“They believe that they are specifically the moment the relationship with China’s neighbors – especially those who worry about their proximity to Washington – said on more useful conditions,” said Mr. GEWIRTZ. “It is a moment when they believe that the ability of these countries to retreat diminish and where Chinese leaders can say,” We can, yes, submit economic, technological deals and other incentives. But we can also continue to pay our regional claims. ”These two matters are very comfortable in their minds.”

The rift between the United States and many traditional allies opened, especially in Europe. But so far, the policies of Mr. Trump have not shake the US -degree coalition in Asia and the Pacific. Marco Rubio A attended A meeting with foreign ministers From India, Japan and Australia on his first full day as a state minister. Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Shigro Eshiba from Japan A. Joint This mentioned their common concerns about the Chinese threats of Taiwan.

“There is continuity here in this region-with Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia,” said Elie Ratner, Assistant Minister of Defense in the Indian Pacific Affairs during the era of President Biden.

Mr. Ratner, who is now a manager in Marathon initiativeIt is a group that studies American competition with China and other competitors. “The challenge now for Beijing is that most of America’s allies view China as the threat of basic national security.”

China chanted dismantling From the office that supervises the voice of America and other agencies that promote democracy and human rights during the era of Mr. Trump.

But Mr. Xi and other Chinese leaders had A dark offer for United States intentions Before Mr. Trump entered politics. In the first period of Mr. Trump, Bonhomie’s offers between him and Mr. Shi gave the way to a commercial war, then a stumbling agreement, with Washington accused China of not honoring its side of the deal. There was also a severity of Covid’s assets, American controls on technology exports, and military targets for each side.

Shen Dengley, the world of international relations in Shanghai, said this time, the mutual retreat will not cool off the customs tariffs, deep insecurity between China and the United States. If both sides continue to contact their commercial disputes, relations may improve for a year or two, but it is likely to get worse again, Mr. Shin said, “Because we have a lot of points of disagreement.”