The European Union needs a new geopolitical compass

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The writer is the co -chief executive of the ITINERA Institute, the Brussels -based research center, and author of “SuperPower EuropE: The EuroPean’s Silent”

The European Union faces a new world order challenge. May 9 was distinguished by the official “Europe Day” – a celebration of peace and unity, which is a flagrant contradiction with the world behind it. Europe falls alone: ​​Russia is an enemy, China is an opponent, as well as partner, and Donald Trump in the United States threat or responsibility.

The mass has a basis mainly three main options. One: America’s establishment in the geopolitical Europe. This means developing what is required to show European power, and linking the third countries to Pax Europeana is based on a large market with integrated technological and security capabilities, in the end surrounded by the reshape NATO.

To get there, Europe should take economically: rebuilding a strong industrial and technological base. After that, it will not only dominate its Eurasian theater, but it is hostile Russia, with a degree of geopolitical independence in the wider world.

The second option is to get rid of the position of the European Union as the last stronghold of globalization. This will be followed in the footsteps of the United States under the management of Joe Biden, and to participate with similar countries in thinking while protecting strategic industries with a high fence of protectionism.

This strategy will eventually include either China or the United States as a security back. However, as long as Trump means indifference or worse than that, the European Union may have to think about “Kissinger”: presenting Beijing outside the slope in his commercial war with Washington, provided that it distinguishes its partnership with Moscow. The position of Europe against Russia will then be one of the limited trade and diplomacy trade rather than hostile hegemony.

The third option is for the European Union to continue playing a second violin for the United States. In the short term, this means re -establishing the mass as a strategic asset for the first American business schedule: concluding a US -friendly trade deal with Trump, and pushing stability bills in Ukraine while enabling American commercial interests in reconstruction and mining, and the American line declining on China.

On the other hand, Europe will benefit from the minimum American security guarantees while it remains integrated in the technology and financial markets led by America. In the medium term, provided that the United States becomes less isolated while maintaining its competition with China, a deeper partnership may return after appearing, reflecting both geological economic facts and mutual need to exchange a burden in the new world order.

Which of these options currently take the European Union? The short answer: All of the above at the same time. It develops a common ability to defend and security with the follow -up of industrial policies. It continues to enhance international trade, including the Chinese European Union trade with more Chinese production in Europe. It is tried for protection for us, not the least of it in relation to Ukraine, while exploring the art of a commercial deal with Trump.

This indicates a noticeable political creativity. But Europe does not intelligently turn its bets in a world of increased turmoil. Instead, it clings to the current situation while it is only capable of gradual reactions on external shocks.

If Europe cannot become pre -emptive and strategic, the political geopolitical currents will eventually divide it politically and its geological marginalization. European countries face the challenge of the new world order as a necessity, not a choice. Either they succeed in directing a response through the European Union, or that individual responses to countries will gradually discourage the mass. Dedicated “S.) from the desire” It is a benign harbinger of what can become a threat.

If Europe is again to become its destiny, it should be the position of the geopolitical compass directly. Russia’s keeping on our own requires a capacity for hard energy and great independence against the United States, as well as sufficient economic independence from China. The latter guarantees that Europe is able to explore across the Atlantic reset with after Trump, a scenario undermined by deepening trade relations with China in the short term.

European countries should be aware that the “European project” is now a project of arduous force that needs a geographical imprint that exceeds its current borders. We were here before. In the early fifties of the last century, Europe after the war tried and failed in the cooperation of politics and defense. At that time, the protection of America and a European economic society enabled peace and prosperity. Today, we are defending ourselves. With economic development subject to political geography, failure is simply not an option.