Economists appear to be in Trump’s tariff policies on the 100 -day sign

president Donald Trump It was carried for a second period on pledges to reduce prices, create job opportunities and impose a difficult tariff on imports, especially from China.

He calls himself a “tariff man” last autumn, he told an audience at the Chicago Economic Club, “The most beautiful word in the dictionary is the customs tariff.” However, in the first months of office, it is unclear whether Trump, or, should implement the harsh mutual definitions he announced in April against dozens of countries.

Now, after 100 days of his second term, economists Tell Fox News Digital They see that these mutual definitions are proposed as political and unnecessary motives and a failure to secure benefits from American trading partners that Trump was hoping for this.

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Instead, they warned that Trump’s tariff could grind billions of dollars in trade to stop between the two largest economies in the world, disrupt global supply chains and risk the stimulation of the American economy in a major stagnation or stagnation.

When Trump took office, the chances of stagnation “may have been about 10 %.” “Now, up to about 55 %.”

It is unclear whether Trump will continue to move forward with these non -popular definitions, which are to take over in early July. In the short term, uncertainty and volatility remain.

The effect of tariffs in the short term

Trump announced the definitions on April 2, called “Liberation Day”. This advertisement included a 10 % essential tariff and plans for larger definitions on dozens of other countries, including China.

These new import taxes immediately sent stock markets to the free fall, which led to one of the largest losses of S&P 500 days since World War II, which prompted deep and uncommon uncertainty over the following potential moves.

“The only thing that happened that has pushed the chances of the recession up, very quickly, is the chaos coming from outside the White House,” said players.

Trump then stopped the 90 -day tariff to encourage the administration to make “deals” with countries to trade and encourage more investment in American manufacturing. However, some prices have already increased in anticipation of high costs under the new tariff system.

I also played uncertainty. Trump tariff announcement In April, a number of large container ships pushed their shipments suddenly to the United States earlier this month and returning to their original ports. This means that more consumers will see high prices for daily products, probably in some large retail stores such as Walmart or Target, early next month.

David E, an economist and professor at William and Mary College, said in an interview that these prices “do not appear tomorrow, but will appear during the next few months, with the development of clubs and the American retailers must find other sources – it may take some time.”

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While Trump says the definitions will target foreign competitors and reduce the trade deficit, the costs will often decrease the high -class Americans who buy the bulk of imported goods.

The wolf players said that Trump’s focus on the commercial “deficit” depends on a common wrong idea.

“What does this mean is that we sell China a small amount of things, and we sold a large amount of things,” he said. However, for every dollar bill that goes to China, the United States gets something the Americans want to buy, such as shirts.

“We have a dollar deficit – but we have a surplus.”

The ability to get rid of

There are a few signs that Trump’s tariff The gains he sought, such as prominent American production, or securing better trade deals, especially with Asian countries.

Instead, experts warn that these countries are likely to circumvent the American markets and provide chains over time.

“If this customs tariff remains in place, there will be no trade between the United States and China, “by the second half of the year, said Gary Klide Hoffauer, a senior colleague who is not resident at the Peterson International Economy Institute, in an interview.

Nearly 650 billion dollars in the annual trade between the two countries are at risk, as well as the effects of hitting global trade in the long run.

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Feldman said that Trump’s tariff also ignored decades of international understanding that led to the removal of commercial conflicts.

“It moves from at least at least to mutual rules of behavior, mutually acceptable to a system that does not contain this,” Feldman, whose research focuses on World Trade Policy, told Fox News Digital. This shift allows the government to target foreign countries individually and provide selective relief for the customs tariffs of companies and industries “if they do” our offer “, he said.

“America is now the master of cracks.”

The following steps

After a violent reaction to the market, Trump appears to heat the idea of ​​alleviating the 145 % mutual tariffs on China, which pledged to impose his retaliatory measures on American goods.

Economists say it is more likely to do so if the economy glows, or sees a significant decrease in survey numbers, if the past is before.

However, any way to rid clearance is still inaccurate. Just last week, China denied Trump’s claim that the two countries were negotiating a tariff deal, after confirming in an interview that it had reached “200 deals” on trade.

Economists Trump is true At least he will expand the scope of customs tariffs at least before July, but he warns that he plays a high ingenuity game that can hit consumers and the most difficult companies.

“What worries it is that the immediate impact of uncertainty is to invest business in the trade -up industries, which leads to recession,” Feldman said. “But it may get worse, if it moves to a state of financial panic. If everyone begins to say,” the gif, I must go to gold and criticism, I cannot be in the treasury bills. “If we move to a journey to criticism, then all bets are suspended.”

He said that if this happens, “We can slip until 2008 again.”

Trump refused to admit that his early days were nothing but great success.

In a recent interview with Time MagazineHe described his first 100 days as “very successful”, saying “People (they write) that he was the best of the first month, the best second month, and the best third month” for an American president.

He rejected the fluctuations of the stock market and high inflation as “temporary market fluctuations”, describing it as a “transitional period” that would leak.

When asked if he considered him a victory if the customs tariff remains up to 50 % on imports a year from now, Trump said he would do so.

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“Full Victory,” said.

“Everyone will benefit.”